12.10.2010 09:12 PM

Ipsos, just received

Tories Breaking Out Of Stalemate
Tories (39%) Open 10-Point Lead Over Grits (29%) Nationally, Improved Showing in Quebec from Earlier This Year

Toronto, ON – As we approach the end of a year which saw virtually no movement in the level of support for Canada’s federal political parties, a new Ipsos Reid poll has revealed that, after being stuck at roughly 35% support for the better part of the year, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are breaking out of the stalemate.

If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper would receive 39% of the vote among decided voters, up 4 points from one month ago. The Conservatives haven’t been this high in the polls since the fall of both 2008 and 2009.

By comparison, Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal Party are trailing by 10 points and would receive 29% of vote support, unchanged from last month.

Jack Layton and the NDP would garner 12% of the vote (down 4 points), while 9% of Canadians would vote for Elizabeth May and the Green Party (down 2 points). The Bloc would receive 10% of the vote, nationally, and 6% of Canadians remain undecided.

20 Comments

  1. Paul R Martin says:

    EKOS seems to be the only poll that has it close. On the other hand, it will be a cold winter and nobody wants an election right now. If the polls hold up for the Conservatives, I would expect an election call after a belt tightening budget.

  2. Kevin says:

    OK, so in other words, the Tories have lost two percent of the advantage they had in the 2008 election?

    (39%-29%)<(38%-26%)

    • Peter says:

      Kevin the CPC had just less than 38% in the last election , this poll represents a full percent increase .

      The shift in dipper support to the Liberals in areas where the Liberals are already in the lead won’t help the Liberals stop a CPC majority

      • Namesake says:

        Don’t quit — or I hope there’s no math in — the day job, there, Peter: Kevin’s point was there a 12 point gap in the ’08 election, which has shrunk to a 10 point gap (=2 less).

      • Kevin says:

        Thanks, Namesake.

        Peter, the shift in Dipper support to the Liberals would tilt a dozen or so marginal seats to the Liberals (in some cases from the NDP, in others from the Tories).

        The slight bump in Tory support is offset by the narrower Tory margin, so they would probably have pretty much the same number of seats as in 2008…. shy of a majority.

  3. Cow says:

    “The Conservatives haven’t been this high in the polls since the fall of both 2008 and 2009.”

    This is one thing that I find interesting here, and rarely mentioned — it almost seems to be an annual, seasonal, cyclic thing. (Perhaps because it’s around now that Harper gets cocky and does something that causes support to crash down, like prorogation?)

  4. JH says:

    This would also seem to indicate that the new kid on the block at ABACUS seem to be much more accurate than Graves & Co. Initeresting that.

    • Namesake says:

      Ah, but that just begs the question. Ekos could still be much closer to the truth than all the other pollsters (no matter how many others there are), owing to these differences:

      * the latest Ekos had a “supersize” sample compared to all the rest: with over twice as many decided voters (2,153), which gives it a smaller margin of error (2.1 nationally, vs. 3.6+ for the others; & b/w 7.4 & 8.4 for the regions, compared to 12ish for some of the others)

      * it wasn’t Internet-based, unlike some of the others; the validity of online surveys is q’ble w/r/t whether it’s truly rep. of the gen. pop., both because it screens out those that don’t have the access or inclination for Internet use, but also because online survey participants self-select [either onto panels or just gravitating to the indiv. survey itself) to be eligible to participate; sometimes they’re even paid to do so.

      * it draws on a random sample of those using ALL kinds of phones (landline & mobile), & does a no. of call-backs, etc., to keep it as random as poss.

      * it doesn’t use the conventional live interviewer asks / subject responds format: it uses “Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology [which] allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, …[which] avoids the social desirability bias where a respondent would be uncomfortable identifying themselves as a[n X] supporter.”

  5. JF says:

    I’m interested in the four percent drop in the NDP: the blow-up of the provincial wing of the party in BC will likely translate to four Conservative pick-ups in BC (Southern Interior, Skeena, New West-Coquitlam, and Burnaby-New West [especially if Julian jumps] in particular). Burnaby-Douglas, Victoria and Kingsway could be Liberal pick-ups.

    • Brendan Kane says:

      “Burnaby-Douglas, Victoria and Kingsway could be Liberal pick-ups”
      The Conservatives lost Burnaby-Douglas by less than 1000. If the NDP fell further in Victoria, the Conservatives might sneak in on a vote split.

  6. J.-C. says:

    Can you say ?outlier?? I?m prepared to accept that the Cons are pushing 39%. But not from a polls that has the dippers at 12%. I also see no reason for a rise in support in Quebec. No, the stalemate is still in place and likely will remain so for as long as it takes for the Tory base to succumb to natural causes.

  7. Jan says:

    Very high margins of error in most of the provinces. 9% in B.C., 12% in Sask/Man. 12% in the Atlancic provinces. Is that normal?

    • Namesake says:

      It’s “normal” for these lame-o on-the-cheap polls with small sample sizes, which, for this company, at least, are often tacked on to the end of omnibus surveys

      Think of it like “car pooling,” says Ipsos Reid: its much more economical than actually commissioning your own full survey. http://www.ipsos-na.com/products-tools/omnibus/

      A typical run might start with a series of Q’s on shampoos; then switch to, “Which would be your favorite ‘tag line’ for a pizza commercial”; then to, “Would you be willing to pay 5 cents more for more environmentally friendly grocery bags?”; and finally, for those kindly &/or sad & lonely folks who hung in there that long, “Oh, say, if an election were held tomorrow…”

      Those margins of error for the regional results mean that they got survey “completions” for only about 80 people in all the Atlantic provinces combined, and for SK/MB, as well, and maybe 125 or so in BC.

      Here’s a rough & ready guide to the MOE’s for various sample sizes at the usual 95% confidence level. http://www.sciencebuddies.org/science-fair-projects/project_ideas/Soc_participants.shtml

      Unfortunately, unlike pretty much all the other public interest market researchers, esp. those who benefit from the voluntary, unremunerated participation of the public, Ipsos Reid does not make its more detailed results and methodology freely available: they have a paywall requiring a $95 annual subscription to get even the political polls like this one.

      http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5074

  8. Peter says:

    Its important to remember not only the margin of error in the poll but in order to convert pop support into a riding victory all the pcs. have to be there . You need a well organized riding association , volunteers and a half decent candidate .

    However , the trendline clearly shows momentetum and should help the CPC to motivate people to donate money and time to the party .

    What I really find interesting are the provicinal breakdowns of this poll and of the most recent nanos poll . They show a nice big gap between the CPC and Liberals in Ontario . If we can hold on to what we have everywhere else we should be able to get a majority with gains in the GTA .

    Rob Ford’s win in Toronto and Julian Fantino’s win in Vaughn are anecdotal evidence that voter/taxpayers in the GTA are feed up with being nickeled and dimmed by their governments . The recent economic crisis have people worried about their own financial situtions and they have low expectations for what their governments can do so they just want whoever will take away the least from them .

    Rob Ford’s win and the CPC win in Vaughn also show that its poisibble to “pull” New Canadians away from the Liberals over to Conservative Candidates . New Canadians have very conservative views on a lot of issues and the CPC is doing a much better job of connecting to them on the local level especially in the GTA .

    • Namesake says:

      Yeah, yeah, good for you, you’ve read all the gung-ho, smell-the-blood-in-the-water columnists.

      You might be right about the sour mood in the GTA, but guess what, that crankiness over irresponsible spending won’t be confined to municipal & provincial govt’s,

      esp. when people are exposed to some honest reporting for a change (instead of just fact-starved boosterism), like this new series by David Pugliese on all the lies around the F-35:

      http://www.canada.com/news/Political+momentum+slings+Tories+into+lead+poll+finds/3960080/story.html

      http://ipolitics.ca/2010/12/10/selling-canada-on-the-need-for-new-fighter-jets/

      (except for the folks like you who are okay with being “dimmed by their governments,” that is.)

      • Namesake says:

        And here’s some more “gravy” on how the EAP funds got spent in Ontario, showing our “low expectations for …governments …[to] just …take away the least from them” haven’t been met by this gang who can’t spend straight:

        “Taxpayers have paid at least $50 million advertising the plan, erecting more than 8,000 signs across the country… Harper received detailed reports from Canada?s top bureaucrat on signage progress. Contracts required a photograph of the completed project ? with sign ? before the last federal cheque could be cut…

        This week, the Ontario auditor general released a report on Economic Action Plan projects in that province. He found that civil servants were so rushed that 56 projects worth an estimated $585 million were reviewed in just four hours. Experts were not consulted to ensure cost estimates and deadlines were reasonable. Political staff approved projects that civil servants had ruled ineligible. Some projects were rushed, at great cost, to meet the March 31 deadline, which was then extended to Oct. 31, 2011.”

        http://thechronicleherald.ca/Opinion/1216663.html

  9. Tired of it All says:

    Warren, ain’t all about the campaign? And given your “anger” post re: Wikileaks, there is something missing here…

  10. MJH says:

    EKOS is indeed the outlier and the CBC just loves the bias Graves brings to the table. What a shame for our national broadcaster.

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