— Musings —12.01.2010 07:40 AM
Una voce
Your by-election roundup, showing total unanimity by the punditocracy:
- Hebert: A Conservative majority is imminent, the Liberals and the NDP are screwed.
- Macdonald: The Liberals did way better than expected, the Conservatives are fine, the NDP is screwed.
- Yaffe: The Conservatives should be happy, the Liberals should be nervous, the NDP is screwed.
- Simpson: Don’t read too much into any of this stuff, but the NDP are screwed.
- Ivison: The Liberals had a good day, the Conservatives had a better day, the NDP are screwed.
- The Star: Nothing to see here, move on. But, incidentally, the NDP are screwed.
- The Free Press: The Conservatives and Liberals shouldn’t claim victory, the candidates should. The NDP is screwed.
- The Herald: The Conservatives should be happy, but sort-of shouldn’t be. The NDP are screwed.
- The Chronicle Herald: The Liberals and Conservatives shouldn’t claim credit! The NDP is screwed.
- The Globe: We’re not sure what it means. We’re not even sure if the NDP is screwed.
The Green Party is also screwed, but nobody actually cares.
But this always happens. The Green vote in a poll is a “parked” vote akin to a “anyone but the above” response. Their support always evaporates in the ballot box.
I have heard that sentiment before. Not worth much, but some like the sound of it.
If I had been voting in Vaughan, I would have voted for the liberal. Not in support of the Liberal party, but against Fantino.
The NDP is….what again? I’m detecting a certain theme here……. 😉
I would venture one adjective further – they’re ****ed.
Good to see that Ottawa Jurnos are showing their well known imagination & curiosity & are keeping the world safe for democracy.
Winnipeg Free Press got it right. The Winnipeg and Vaughn contests were won by Marquee candidates and had nothing to do with the parties. All that matters is the general election. By then Wikileaks will have gutted the system like a fish the Cons will get more hysterical and the Liberals will run against Ezra Levant and Tom Flanagan who’s solution to the exposure of illegality perpetrated by western so-called democracies is to literally kill the messenger. Why do people like that support the Conservative party? What does that say about the Conservative party and their plans for the future? Don’t ask Julian Fantino… he’s just the latest front bench blow up doll. Ask reptile eyes.
I don’t think the NDP is ‘screwed’. They lost a by-election by about 5% (800 votes) with a 32% voter turnout rate. With a much higher voter turnout rate this riding could easily go back into the NDP column again in a general election.
When Mulcair won Outremount he had a 18% margin of victory in a by-election that was reduced to about 6% in the general election.
This makes sense. Much higher turnout in a general election … Though with recent trends maybe not. As Warren says… All that matters is the general election campaign.
Just as an aside to your post this morning Warren I really like the format of this post and the one you did earlier in the week re: highlighted blogging tory tidbits. It works well to streamline things and weed out the crap, keeping only what’s relevant and interesting.
Does anyone who counts (voters) read this stuff anyways? Pundits would do well to venture out of their offices (or dens) a few days a year.
Newspapers (dead tree or electrons) are more irrelevant day by day.
Musings readers can be counted on to vote every chance they get. Others, not so much.
Warren has it right. Ford – message – votes. Ignatieff – WTF? – few votes. Get a clue. Attention span – short. Short message – stick to it.
These pundits are writing to a diminishing audience.
ahem…. no.
Your headline roundup was my morning chuckle.
Maybe too much Harbin Beer (I think I now know one of the reasons why DM goes to China often; other than the obvious – incredible investment capital), its past midnight, but I just can’t see The Sun summary. Should you not, as a good employee, be also including them? Or did they miss the part about the NDP being in serious trouble in spite of having that most popular, lovable (like a Panda Bear), Lawton at the helm?
Off-topic, but I must say I eagerly await hearing about what you have to say regarding the Liberals unanimously backing Iggy up in defeating the Bloc’s anti-Afghan extension motion.
In a non-whipped vote, no less.
Good for them.
Ah, forgive me. I thought your position was that the extension was a bad thing, and that lots of LPC MPs were anonymously angry about Iggy and Rae’s position on the matter. In fact, I thought your position on this matter was the reason Cherniak sent you that snotty message a couple weeks back.
If in fact you feel this lock-step support of the Afghanistan extension is a good thing, then I guess I misread you. My bad.
Snotty message, huh?
Anyway. I’ll be nice.
Caucus and grassroots were and are furious with Iggy and Rae. But they know the minute they move to make a big change, Harper will call the election. So they will play the hand they’re dealt.
Sometimes, in life, you settle. They’ve settled.
For now.
I think Bob and Iffy should really think hard over the holidays and do what it is best for the Party and for most what it is best for Canada.
Canadian indicated loud and clear if voters turn out any indicator “Not happy with Lib nor Con Party leaders”, Gordon Campbell is good example putting Party and Province interest above all.
We need new blood, new generation and new ideas to take the helm, that will defeat Harper for sure.
If the NDP are screwed, that is good news for the Liberals, b/c those are the crossover votes (ie – not to the Conservatives). A shrewd strategy for the Libs in the next election would be to attack the NDP (instead of, or in addition to, the Conservatives).
Try that strategy in B.C. and see how far it gets you.
Attacking the NDP only makes for bad blood, or worse blood if you will, and that’s what Harper wants, his two rivals spitting at one another. Attack Harper, attack the Cons, attack the record, economy, Flaherty… etc. Criticize the NDP, say they can’t form government, but attack the CPC.
I think that Steve T is correct. A strong NDP bleeds support from the LP. I think it is why the CPC throw a bone or two Mr Layton’s way and rarely attack them.
Correct. The dippers are often propped up by the CPC. I still don’t think the Libs should attack the NDP though, play hard but play nice, we may have to kiss and make up.
The results in Vaughan look like a test study for strategic voting. A large part of the NDP vote is willing to move to the Liberals just to stop Harper, and visa-versa. Same old song really, and it will be until Ignatieff gets political about policy.
The punditocracy’s psychobabble is just as incomprehensible as the Tridentine Mass to the average mortal, that’s for sure.
Do all these people who write for the newspapers get together in a bar, over a few pops, and decide the topic of the day?
That would be an improvement.