01.02.2011 09:01 AM

In today’s Sun: Step right up! Get your prognostications right here, free of charge!

“1. Election 2011: If it happens, it’ll happen in the spring simply because too many fall provincial elections will be taking place in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario, P.E.I., Newfoundland and Labrador and the Northwest Territories. If it happens, too, it’ll only be because Stephen Harper and (insert Opposition leader name here) favours it. Lotsa cowardly “ifs,” there. But if Harper sees winning conditions for his Reformatories and losing ones for the Liberals he’ll go for it.

40 Comments

  1. Paul R Martin says:

    Re: #10. I was in Ottawa on the 30th (Nepean rather than Parliament Hill) and did not notice a lot of ugly Canadians there. There seemed to be a lot of rather normal people doing their own thing.

    If an election is called, Harper will win his majority.

    • Bill says:

      Sure he will.

      • Rick T. says:

        Yes he will.

        • Namesake says:

          The Little Conbots That Would:

          In desperation, the train asked the little conbots to draw it up the grade and down on the other side. “I think he can,” puffed the little conbots, and put themselves in front of the great heavy train. As it went on the little conbots kept bravely puffing faster and faster, “I think he can, I think he can, I think he can.”

          • According to the Hansards with 30 Liberals missing votes, derailing their own bills on 2nd reading our PM does have a de facto majority. Nothing wrong with being a loyal opposition but clearly the Liberals are not up to the job.

            If they were given only 40 seats the next time I am confident more of them would be able to show to vote against the Conservative agenda they criticize.

          • Namesake says:

            well, if they were as indefatigable as you conbots in huffing & puffing on prog-blogs & news sites’ comment boards, the Commons would become nothing but a perennial filibuster; izzat your New Year’s wish, Ms. SmackTalk?

        • Paul R Martin says:

          Namesake is reverting to the old Liberal fallback position of name calling the other guys!

          • Namesake says:

            aye, just being true to form, as are you:

            Namesake calls irritants names, while Martin Martinizes: i.e., attempts on-site cleaning on rival political blogs using a non-flammable solvent.

          • Paul R Martin says:

            Namesake (what a strange moniker) appeared to be full of hot air until he let it rip. On the other hand, I do wish him seasons greetings and the kind of year he so richly deserves.

          • Paul R Martin says:

            Namesake does not have the intestinal fortitude to use his own name, while at the same time he somehow claims that I appear to have made numerous comments on rival political blogs. I have no idea of which blogs he is referring to. I did comment frequently on the CBC’s riding by riding blog during the last federal election. I even got a Liberal back room type kicked off the CBC blog, because said person was making identical posts on the blogs for multiple ridings. I wonder if that was Namesake? I wonder which names Namesake uses on other blogs?

          • Namesake says:

            um, ok: just the one “rival political blog” (i.e., _this_ Liberal war room one, that you, a Conservative, are posting on), then. My bad.

          • Paul R Martin says:

            Apology accepted. Good luck in your career.

          • Namesake says:

            Huh. Interesting that you took offense at the suggestion that you commented on other sites; I guess WK should be honoured you limit your heckling to here. Anyhow, I was just trying to be punny (while deflecting your crit), and it was actually a pretty good-natured one, noting that altho’ you try to clean Liberals’ clocks, it’s generally in a non-inflammatory way. (Unlike me, but hey, if people want to talk smack on a partisan site they’re gonna get smacked back.) Thanks for the continued well wishes, and hope you had a happy 65th last week, and that you have a long, healthy retirement.

  2. 1. Yes with caveat. Does the PM believe conditions will improve (jobs, economy) in next 6-12 months? Will the infighting produce a John Turner letter at the party not know for it’s patience.

    2. Yes, Why the hell have an election? So opposition leaders can retire for starters and rebuild their parties after the Blue Wave. (See Ford, Alward)

    3. For the Liberals to seize on an issue they need credibility. The lack of funds in a war chest, a year a scandal mongering will make it very difficult.
    4. Stephen Harper will play piano again. Because it works. (okay 1 point for humour)
    5. Transfers are at 6% for Health 30% since CPC were elected. No need to fancy meeting and empty rhetoric. Money is flowing and Kevin Page thinks it is too high.
    6. Voter fatigue (Yes)
    7. Ignatieff will look unhappy. Because, most days, he is.
    8. Coalition? What coalition? Based on Dion-Layton in October 2008 it is Plausible Mike and Jack will repeat. Mike has moved more left than Dion. Ex F35,ex Corp tax reduction. Pre negotiation.
    9. Scandal-mongering will persist. But it won’t work because it rarely does. (Agreed)
    10.Parliament-PPG is Hollywood for ugly people.

    • PETE says:

      CS fails to understand that in between elections all opposition leaders look sad because they know, and especially with the current failure of a PM, that they can do much better than the turkey running the show.

      • I don’t share your analysis and neither do the Polls, voters and donors, volunteers to the political parties. (We call it reality)

        According to all the polls the base of our PM is rock solid vs Ignatieff. (Point #8 was direct from W.K. article. I can’t tell if he is happy or sad. That photo of him holding a bar cheese still creeps me out.)

        If Ignatieff can’t convince Liberal voters to show up in Vaughan to Dion’s level in 2008 what makes you think he can anywhere else? The CPC fell 121 votes short of the 2008 result.

        Dion got criticized for losing safe seats, low financial and not listening. From reading many Liberal blogs, visiting Elections Canada website it also very clear Ignatieff after two years has repeated the same pattern.

        Pete campaigns matter, anything is possible. A man from la mancha once dreamed an impossible dream and you can too.

  3. jon evan says:

    I think you are right. Polls have been rather static toward a min. gov’t. and PMSH himself has mused that such may be the new political norm in Canada. If he really believes that then no election for him: nothing to gain…

    But what if some winning issue emerges? Will PMSH be tempted by power? Maj. in the senate and HoC can be a dangerous mix! Will he be able to control it? Perhaps he can! Perhaps a new Canada will emerge! How exciting is that for 2011!

  4. James Curran says:

    You left out the non-leadership Libeal Convention in Ottawa which is already booked. Can’t have an election in spring cause that would fuck up all the hotel reservations, Alf Apps’ reception plans and MI’s fabulous non-leadership review. Not to mention the leader will still be 9 months short of pension eligibility. Therefore, no election.

    • James Curran says:

      Oh, and expect more caucus revolt and much more sightings of Jusin.

      • Cath says:

        good points James – any grass root Liberals expected to take back their party at this shindig James? I sure hope so because it’s time they had a say in who the next leader will be.

        No election until 2012, with the PM and his gov’t using the provincial results to his/their advantage.

  5. Sean says:

    Prediction: Ignatieff is out by the end of the year. If there is an election, he has been defined early and often as a national pariah and he’ll quit on election night. If there isn’t one, the national convention this June will be a massive fiasco. While there isn’t an automatic leadership vote, I think it is very hard to imagine he’ll survive a weekend with thousands of grumpy liberals who sense they can do better.

  6. michael hale says:

    election in Yukon sometime this year, too, likely fall.

  7. Namesake says:

    On the galvanizing issue front: it may be a 2-fer of spectactularly bad deals that will get fully exposed in the coming months.

    Stephen Maher is speculating today that the ‘Thin Border’ deal may actually be Harper’s ‘quid’ for the States’ F-35 ‘quo’ — i.e., that _he’s_ been the one pushing for it in exchange for caving so fast on buying the flying white elephants.
    http://thechronicleherald.ca/Opinion/1219846.html

    That’s consistent w. what James Laxer — now a PoliSci prof. at York, and formerly the research director & would-be leader of the NDP — has said below, about how altho’ the US Admin. might pay lip service to & sign such an agreement, they’re scarcely likely to do anything to actually thin the border going south, since they think we’re the lax ones on screening terrorists, and they wouldn’t want to contend with the double-standard of making their northern border more porous at the same time they’re trying to clamp down on all the traffic from Mexico.

    http://blog.jameslaxer.com/2010/12/stop-fortress-north-america-dont-let.html

    http://blog.jameslaxer.com/2010/12/harpers-christmas-special-myth-of-how.html

    • Namesake says:

      More B.S. from the well-known B.S.’er. (see http://warrenkinsella.com/2010/12/help-wanted/#comments

      The CF-18s can only fly in Canada and are at the end of their life? Bull. They’ve been completely upgraded, which brought them “into full interoperability with the equipment of key allies and extend the life of the aircraft through 2017” (or 2020, now)
      http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2006/q1/060118b_nr.html

      And as you well know, we never “signed on” to purchasing the F-35s before now: just a token “pay to play” in its development to garner contracts here & be able to use that tech. in our own industry.

      And you’re just begging the q. on whether we’ll actually benefit anything from the border agreement.

      And don’t be too quick to dismiss Maher’s theory: just as the WikiLeaks showed that Norway was being strongarmed by the US to buy the F35s & how the US was crippling the comptetitor’s bid by denying key radar components to Saab, I’ll bet there’ll be some cables coming out about what they might have been pressuring us with (esp. if Assange gets killed or jailed and they make good on that threat to release all 250,000 documents instead of just the fraction so far).

      And James Laxer has published dozens of books on both Canadian politics and international geo-political issues (Amazon link: http://urlm.in/gnqq ), including several on your favorite topic (oil), and has plenty of credibility, both as a prof. and a former Toronto Star columnist, whatever his political leanings. You? Not so much. Esp. here, when you simply labelled him as a left-wing paranoid for allegedly making a linkage that, er, someone else altogether (Stephen Maher) made.

    • Jan says:

      The MOU signed by the Liberals, did not obligate us to buy the F 35. You really need to familiarize yourself with the issue – i.e. disregard anything coming out of the government on it.

  8. allegra fortissima says:

    “Only those who attempt the absurd… will achieve the impossible. I think… I think it’s in my basement… Let me go upstairs and check.” M.C. Escher sums it up, pretty much.

  9. So, the Liberals will oppose the next budget, but 30 or 40 of them will catch the Ottawa ugly flu and won’t show up for the budget votes. How sick is that?

  10. Warren, I have absolutely no clue as to the right answers to your 10 questions. None. Nada. Rien.

    But I predict that the following 5 files will see no progress whatsoever in 2011:

    – Poverty in Canada
    – The plight of our returning military veterans, particularly the 850 severely wounded who cannot work, regarding the dwindling support they will receive from Veterans Affairs
    – Canada’s support of development in Africa
    – The looming ecological crisis, including habitat destruction, fresh water pollution and global warming
    – The diminution of democracy in the governance of Canada’s public institutions

    This could be a much longer list. What are your top 5?

    • Thanks Gord: What exactly is this qualitative gap between rich and poor? You say it is getting narrower? Here’s what the Globe & Mail said on this issue just over a year ago…

      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/archives/article682203.ece

      “The earnings gap between the rich and the poor is widening in Canada, with incomes among recent immigrants showing especially dramatic declines in recent years, according to sweeping new census data.

      Earnings among the richest fifth of Canadians grew 16.4 per cent between 1980 and 2005 while the poorest fifth of the population saw earnings tumble 20.6 per cent over the 25-year time period, Statistics Canada said in its 2006 census release on income and earnings. Earnings among people in the middle stagnated.”

      Re Veterans Affairs treatment of wounded vets coming back from Afghanistan, I hope you are right. But I am not seeing any meaningful action yet.

      Your position re the tarsands is fascinating. Suppose you had to move to Fort Chipewyan, drink and cook with the Athabasca river water and eat the fish therefrom. Would you do it? Would you take your loved ones or leave them at home?

      http://www.edmontonjournal.com/health/Fort+Chipewyan+wants+answers+about+cancer+rates/4038644/story.html

      “”We’ve had so many funerals in Fort Chipewyan, so many wakes and so many funerals that people don’t go anymore,” Simpson said. “And when they go, even if they’re not related to the person that passes on, they’re just sitting there crying anyways.

      “Every family in Fort Chip is affected by this. Everybody lost somebody to cancer and it’s just so devastating and yet … yet it just continues.”

      As for democracy and governance in Canada public institutions, I was thinking about the growing list of institutions that have lost executives who displeased Harper. You know, the usual list of suspects….

      Guess we can both selectively troll the web…

  11. ben burd says:

    Why do we need airplanes – toys for the boys!

  12. scanner says:

    Why Stephen Harper will not call an election.
    What’s the point? he will be transported to Paradise on May 21, 2011 (3 days after my birthday! Woot!!!), leaving behind an empty suit.
    (Is that redundant?)
    http://articles.sfgate.com/2010-01-01/bay-area/17466332_1_east-bay-bay-area-first-time-camping

    “Harold Camping lets out a hearty chuckle when he considers the people who believe the world will end in 2012.
    “That date has not one stitch of biblical authority,” Camping says from the Oakland office where he runs Family Radio, an evangelical station that reaches listeners around the world. “It’s like a fairy tale.”
    The real date for the end of times, he says, is in 2011.”

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