02.23.2011 06:26 PM

Reformatory lead plummets to five points

Analysis by the pollster who found that:

“Although the survey doesn’t have direct evidence on this point, it is possible that this recoil effect, which is a recurring pattern of the past five years, was magnified by the Bev Oda affair. In a familiar pattern of voter recoil and government missteps, the tantalizing majority of a fortnight ago has evaporated into the narrow rut advantage of the last year. Zap! You’ve been Odasized!”

“Odasized.” I thought that was funny. Good one.

38 Comments

  1. Timmy says:

    Here’s hoping the Odasization will soon Ouimetastasize.
    I like words…

  2. Lance says:

    Wow, what a shocker. I would never have predicited that such an outlier high from the last EKOS poll would lead some media talking heads to conclude that this latest poll simply MUST be a plummet in support. And because of a “scandal” that was beaten half to death. Convenient, that. Even the benificiary of the last poll saw this latest convenient “plummet” coming. Now all of a sudden people are paying attention? Pfft.

  3. Namesake says:

    Yay!

    Well, Odasized is cute, but may not be the true reason — or maybe the short-term effect will actually be even bigger than that, since this was in the field b/w Feb. 10-22, but the story only really picked up steam for the latter week of that.

    But he should really be more careful in his word choice: he twice refers to the electorate as being “unhinged,” which he probably means as ‘not being rooted to one party,’ but which the rest of us understand as “brainsick: affected with madness or insanity.”

    So, again, to those who are still mad at him for his “grumpy old folks” and “culture wars” comments — once again, it should be noted, that he is NOT working for the Liberals on these polls, or even for the CBC for that matter: the news last week was that these media polls are pretty much all freebies, as loss leaders for the companies.

    It should also be noted that he’s quietly returned to the much larger sample size he had _before_ that anomalous 12.5 spread he had a couple weeks ago: 2,811 robo-interviews, minus 17.5% un-decided or in-eligible, for 2,358 decided voters.

    That alone could account for a goodly portion of the mysterious but now evaporated spread, as I submitted last time.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/02/23/ekos-poll.html

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/pdf/Full%20Report%20%28February%2023%29.PDF

  4. Erik says:

    I’m wondering if it was really Oda who was mostly/entirely responsible for the change in support or whether it’s that Canadians as a whole are uncomfortable with the idea of a Harper majority and “self-correct” whenever the Tories poll in that territory. It seems as though corrections like these happen each and every time Harper enters the high 30s.

    What do you think, Warren? Is it Oda, or is there more to it?

  5. Steve T says:

    Perhaps the sharp drop in the polls will finally convince Harper to punish Oda.

    Funny, for someone who is otherwise quite savvy, Harper doesn’t seem to understand how to deal with MP issues. He threw Guergis under the bus with only shreds of sketchy (and ultimately erroneous) evidence, but is sticking by Oda despite her obvious problems.

    • Namesake says:

      Harper only pulled the trigger on Guergis when his own name got linked to it — in the Rahim ‘I’m not a lobbyist’ Jaffer inquiry, when it emerged that he was handing out his old MP cards & telling people he was still tight with the PM & could help get their projects any funds they might conceivably be eligible for.

      Whereas with Oda, as long as it’s still just at the level of rumour with just nebulous references to the PMO, but no actual testimony from any of the principals naming him personally, well, it hasn’t tainted his squeaky clean brand yet, so he’ll just ride it out (since, after all, it probably WAS under his his direction, and Oda might be far more likely to disclose that if she’s deprived of her precious limos & Ministerial salary).

      • Ted says:

        I think you made a good point there. Especially the observation that Harper not only through Guergis under the bus but threw the cops at her as well for the misdeeds of her husband. She was an embarrassment for him and her own behaviour really raised competency questions.

        Oda is in the news because she did something he asked her to do though. Now, she’s toast internally and will be shuffled out first chance because (a) she actually approved that funding in the first place and he had to “correct” her and (b) she has performed so horribly that they won’t let her speak and defend herself. But for the time being, she is being a loyal sock puppet and is safe.

    • JenS says:

      Likely because Oda is the symptom, not the disease.

  6. Michael Bussiere says:

    Ads run depicting Ignatieff as a tax-hiker (paid by the Cons) followed moments later by Govt. of Canada ads (funded by taxpayers) promoting tax cuts. Both are obviously part of the same Harper strategy, a strategy which is 50% funded by the taxpayer. Can someone please explain to me how this could possibly be legal? Technically legal perhaps, but still worthy of a legal challenge, no? Is there no recourse for all us poor saps sitting here frustrated as hell every G-D night by this obvious con job? No class action lawsuit that could be filed, no injunction sought, no way for the average schmo to raise hell over this obvious corruption?

    Can someone please answer this?

    • WesternGrit says:

      Michael: You’re as frustrated as the rest of us. If/when the Opposition parties join forces and knock off the Cons, perhaps we’ll have the votes in the House to change the campaigning laws:
      1) No more year-round ads. Political ads to be restricted to election writ periods
      2) Tight spending caps for political parties. Once you go over the limit, you forfeit funds to a public political education/civics course program that would ensure civics is taught in ALL schools from a standard national perspective. Also share some of the funds to grow and develop democracy abroad (in Africa, South America)
      3) Limit government advertising of programs. Governments have better things to do than to spend our money telling us what they’re doing every day. I’ll leave it up to freedom of info and a free press to discuss what the gov’t does.

      That’s my 3 point plan. It should be for all of us.

      • Namesake says:

        I like it. And that last reparation is particularly apt for the CPC Party, who’s been all talk but only counter-productive action on the international democracy (and triply so on the domestic front), as noted recently by both the Globe & Jen Dish (among others):

        Canada is missing the democratic moment:
        http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/canada-is-missing-the-democratic-moment/article1912078/

        Dream of Canadian democracy centre melts as Arab world boils:
        http://www.inews880.com/News/National/Article.aspx?id=264489

      • Limiting free speech and advocacy is the strategy because you can’t find people who will donate to your political party?

        This is not Cuba or China.

        Fix your message, give people a reason to believe the Federal Liberals are not going the way of the Rhino, Reform, PC parties.

      • Philip says:

        Hold political ads to the exact same standards as other products. If we demand truth from those who sell us toothpaste and frozen dinners, the least we can do is demand the same from those who either govern our country or wish to do so.

        • How do you determine what is fair in a political ad? The courts are available if the PSA are libelous.

          I am shocked the party that pushes the Charter is denying freedom of expression because they can’t find donors. The CPC have 100k small donors. They beat the entire opposition combined in donations, fix the funding formula with a reasonable platform. Give people a reason to vote for the Liberals again.

          Hiding and being afraid the CPC will steal or demolish a good idea is not a winning strategy.

          • Philip says:

            Canoodlesense:
            Are you really equating free speech with the right to lie about political opponents? That is your position? Private companies produce good ads all the time which meet current regulations. Unless your CPC is based entirely on out right lies, barely supressed hate, manufacturered outrage and character assassination, truthful ads shouldn’t be an issue. Right?

  7. MCBellecourt says:

    I wish I could, but I can offer this: Keep seperating the real meat from the baloney and keep talking with your friends and family about these things. Open dialogue and discussion are our most powerful weapons, and, unlike our predecessors, we have our Internet.

    I don’t watch a lot of TV anymore for this and other reasons, and the shows I’m interested in are usually online sans advertising, which is nice. Recognising it for what it is–propoganda–and recognising the parallels in history that exist with this current onslaught of propoganda, is key to fighting it. Fortunately, I believe that enough people do remember their history to not want to repeat it. I think we just have to build on that and keep on keeping on.

    Canada will prevail. We can make it happen.

  8. Martin Cooke says:

    Michael: for those who are frustrated with seeing the Tory smears, multiplied by the use of Govt advertising for partisan reasons, one message: *give some of your money and time to the other guys*. That’s the only way you are going to win this– not by looking like whiners in the courts, as satisfying as it may be to have the Cons’ wrists slapped.

  9. Pete says:

    Through all this it appears that Jack the ripper is dancing on the head of a pin trying to avoid an election without seeming like he is.

  10. CanadianSense says:

    Warren,

    We should be having an Angus Reid Poll shortly. The real issues that affect voters the economy, jobs move votes, the water cooler conversations about Helena or Bev won’t work. You have already covered the faux scandals won’t change much.

    “The cognoscenti watch the directional numbers and these don?t look good at all for the government right now. Less than 4 in 10 Canadians think the government is moving in the right direction. Majority governments typically enjoy the confidence of about 60% on this right track/wrong track measure.” That was Frank Graves in June 10, 2010

    Flash forward to February 2011 how does the voters feel about the direction of the country or government?

    • Namesake says:

      Well, they’re pretty lukewarm about it, if you must know:

      Direction of country:

      • Namesake says:

        (oh-oh: alien character abduction; reposted):

        Direction of country:
        * 50.8% right direction
        * 36.5% wrong direction
        * 12.8% DK/NR

        Direction of government
        * 43.0% right direction
        * 42.4% wrong direction
        * 14.5% DK/NR

        and despite the hype, the economy’s pretty lukewarm, too:

        – at least a quarter of those 400+k “new jobs” replacing the old ones are only part-time instead (“there were still 113,000 fewer full-time jobs in October 2010 than in October 2008”)
        – even just counting the no. of employed and forgetting their hours or incomes, returning to the levels of 3 years ago doesn’t really count as a full recovery since it ignores the fact that there’s been population growth & would-be new labour entries since then, so the goal should be a whole lot MORE jobs since then
        – the real unemployment rate is more like 10%, for 1.5 million plus

        http://impolitical.blogspot.com/2011/02/some-job-numbers-perspective-on.html

        http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/labour-market-regains-zip-but-scars-linger/article1917112/

        http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/110223/dq110223b-eng.htm

        — plus there’s the whole ‘we’re all one paycheque away from a foreclosure or eviction’ thing, as soon as the interest rates increase, thanks in part to Diamond Jim green-lighting 40 year mortgages a few years back

        • I compared June 17, 2010 to latest doom and gloom drop.

          I am clear on the use of negative advertisng works. No one is responding and the framing is complete. The CPC have spent a nice chunk of change in prime time leading up to the election. (budget)

          The right direction for country saw a tiny lift. The right direction of government saw a 6.6% shift. The wrong direction also too a bigger drop.

          June 17, 2010 was the Poll that had Frank hot and bothered about below 40% and the CPC falling below 30%.

          Remember this is about “cognoscenti watch”. You should look up the term, it may help.

          You could also review what Warren has said about the fake scandals or possibly Nik Nanos about the water cooler talk on Charles Adler show on Feb 22, part 1.

          • Namesake says:

            what are you on about?

            First of all, “cognoscenti watch” isn’t an actual thing to look up: the phrase you’re referring to is his oft-repeated claim that ‘people in the know’ track that ONE particular indicator (government moving in right or wrong direction) more closely than voting intention.

            Second, why pick just those two particular dates to compare, much less attribute it to the ads?

            E.g., in the latest Ekos, the chart shows “government is moving in the WRONG direction” has been zigging up & down since May ’09, and peaking in early Nov 10, and trending up, overall, but the latest numbers are probably due more to the unexpectedly low and falsely reassuring unemployment numbers for the last few months, than to anything.

            and that — the alleged total job recovery news — is also when the “govt’s moving in the Right Direction” numbers started climbing back up (after dipping back to that June nadir, in early Nov.), and, far from being lifted by the latest ads, those numbers have actually been DECREASING slightly since late Jan.

            Look it up, it might help.
            http://www.cbc.ca/news/pdf/Full%20Report%20%28February%2023%29.PDF

            And, yes, yes, you keep touting that revelation from the anointed priest-class pollster (Mork calling Orson: “Na-Nu, Na-Nu”) about the huge percentage of votes only being decided by the chatter during the family-dinner holiday immediately preceding the vote….

            well, even if that’s true, I wouldn’t bank on that breaking your way, since the chatter this year is likely to be:

            “Aren’t you sick of all those commercials? Yeah — what kind of idiots do they take us for?” and,

            “Can you believe the way they keep lying to us and concealing information?,” and,

            “What’s with their stupid obsession with prisons and shiny fighter jets?” and

            “Why do they keep letting the US walk all over us and look to them to dictate our foreign and environmental policies?” and…

            probably a dozen more scandals to break soon.

            ‘Course, in your house, all they’ll hear is, “La la la la — I can’t hear you.”

  11. Ted says:

    For some reason, years ago, pollsters stopped reporting the “undecided” vote. I get that, on voting day only actual votes count.

    However, the trend line in undecideds is quite important and revealing. It keeps going up and shot up in the last few polls. So the double digit lead and even the current lead by the Conservatives is actually very misleading as it is a lot tighter.

    Every single poll on the individual leaders shows feelings about Harper are far more rigid – you either love him, like a few people do, or you strongly dislike him, like most of us do – whereas the feelings toward Iggy are far more liquid – generally more people don’t like him but they are far closer to indifferent/lukewarm than strongly dislike and more indicate they don’t have any opinion of him.

    When you factor those two sets of facts – # of undecideds and more room to grow for Iggy – the situation is not too bad. Not bad at all. Especially facing a government that has no qualms about using hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars to promote itself, build fake lakes, give itself iPads, etc. instead of providing services to Canadians.

    • According to the latest Nik Nanos Poll undecided make up a larger number than support Ignatieff for a PM question in his survey. The left are fighting over a shrinking pie split four ways. The fans that support the PM are donating and show up to the ballots. Look at the demographics. The 18-24 demographic will not show up to save the left.

      It is okay to recite faux outrage over a reflective pool in a tourism pavillion that costed $ 57k. Journalists from all over the world were stuck in Toronto to cover the G8-G20. Only a few hundred were allowed to travel to Huntsville.

      The BBC and Ontario tourism both gave raving reviews for the travel pavillion and support for covering/publicizing Ontario and the International conference.

      It is a shame the Ontario Premier and Toronto Chief of Police have avoided holding a public inquiry into the mass arrests in Toronto. Over 900 were released without charges after 1100 were picked up. Toronto and Queens park blew it.

      • Namesake says:

        yeah, I hope they do have a proper G20 inquiry ASAP: betcha if there was any justice, they’d find both the PMO’s appointees & the then OPP Commissioner Julian Fantino’s paw-prints all over the SNAFU that led to the car burnings & the ensuing two-day crack-down on all the wrong people. But of course, all the relevant documents will be sealed as “cabinet confidences” and only John Baird will be sent to testify on all the federal officers’ and managers’ behalf.

        • I enjoy how you regularly find it appropriate to make personal attacks and demand what is allowed for fair comment on blogs that you don’t own. You should follow your own advice.

          This is called jurisdiction. The Toronto Police force are responsible for Toronto. The Peel for Airport and Peel Region I could go on and explain it with links but you have already decided the Federal Government must be responsible for the mass arrests made by the Toronto Police Force.

          Did you think in Huntsville it was the OPP or the Toronto Police force that would be held accountable?

          Feel free to pass judgment, convict without due process, it appears to be a pattern when attacking people who don’t share your political ideology.

          Again you feel I need to defend Elections Canada erratic behaviour for ignoring the leadership debts of Liberals while refusing to wait for the appeal to the court decision they lost regarding the use of funds by laying an adminstrative charge?

          This post was about Pollsters remember and the 5 point drop noted by Ekos and him invoking Oda. The latet poll negates the Oda effect and puts the Liberals at 23% with the NDP at 19%.

      • Namesake says:

        BTW, [don’t appropriate the name of my country for your non-]Sense:

        on the many liblogs you frequent, you’re always going on about how strongly the CPC party supposedly resonates with its supporters, as evidenced by the all-important (to you, who worships Mammon) fundraising metric, of its number of active donors.

        So let’s see.

        The CPC had 5,208,796 people voting for it in 2008 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_2008

        but just 101,385 indiv. donors in the last year (2009) for which there’s complete data readily available
        (at http://www.punditsguide.ca/finances/ )

        So that’s, uh, a whopping 1.9% of its electorate that y’all are scaring — I mean wooing — into putting their money where your mouth is.

        While the LPC had 3,633,185 voters in 2008; and 37,876 indiv. donors in 2009.

        Which, yeah, is only half that, proportionally speaking (1.0% of its electorate).

        But the point is, BOTH parties’ pools of active donors is TINY in relation to the electorate as a whole.

        So it’s utterly ridiculous and insulting for you to be carrying on as though it’s anything other than a scandalously undemocratic case of the tip of the tail wagging the dog, in letting the fundraising numbers drive the government’s policy, as this party all too often does.

        The fundraising activities should really be placed in a blind trust as far as the cabinet and sitting MPs and Senators are concerned; it puts them in too much of a conflict of interest with the considered good of the nation as a whole.

      • Namesake says:

        p.s., looks like all that fundraising success has given you Conning folks more money than, er, Sense…

        the ol’ In and Out scam is back in the news — and the courts — again:

        “2 Tory senators charged over campaign spending

        …Elections Canada has laid charges against the Conservative Party and four of its members, including two senators, over alleged violations of election spending rules.

        CBC News has learned from Conservative sources the charges were laid Wednesday.

        The party members charged are:

        Senator Doug Finley, the party’s campaign director in 2006 and 2008, and the husband of Human Resources Development Minister Diane Finley.
        Senator Irving Gerstein, a prominent businessman and fundraiser for the party.
        Michael Donison, a former national party director.
        Susan Kehoe, who has served as an interim party executive director.

        http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/02/24/elections-canada-charges-conservative-party-campaign-spending.html

  12. jenjen says:

    We are definitely heading towards an election.

    The government wants to move ahead before home price declines impact the Canadian electorate. They therefore need to go to the polls before the proverbial %^%^ hits the fan.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


*