02.11.2011 08:07 PM

Tweet Wow

@stphnmaher: RT @RobertFife: Ipsos pollster Darrell Bricker writes of Ekos poll: ” We’ve got almost the same. No anomaly.” #cndpoli

28 Comments

  1. Le Visiteur says:

    How can Harper resist firing the starting pistol now, I ask you oh Wise Kinsella?

  2. Namesake says:

    I dunno: I don’t trust these results, and not just cuz they’re so different from the Ipsos-Reid one (34 v 29) taken just days before or because the CPC itself discounts them (Taber: http://urlm.in/gzhl ), but also because:

    it has less than HALF the sample size of Ekos’ other ones of late (e.g., the Jan. 13/2011 one had 2,984 decided voters doing the robo-dialled poll; this one only had 1,405).

    That gives MOE’s of b/w 7.6 and 12.2 for the regions. E.g., there were only 65 decided voters answering for all of MB & SK; only 3 of those were under 25).

    http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_february_11_2011.pdf

    But this’ll certainly put the Cons’ phony claim that THEY don’t want an election cuz the economy’s too precarious etc. to the test.

    • MississaugaLibPeter says:

      I would question the polls if they did not have a positive Con, negative Lib result.

      What do you expect when millions of dollars are spent bashing Ignatieff and tens of millions of dollars are spent on promoting the government’s action plan?

      The ad buys effectively influence those individuals who don’t read this blog and don’t follow politics closely.

    • Norman says:

      Let’s assume the polls are correct and trending more and more towards the Conservatives; so what should the Liberal strategy be given that Ignatieff is still trying to establish himself with Canadians at large.

      Should Ignatieff attempt to precipitate an election asap rather than let the polls continue their upward trend for the Conservatives and downward trend for the Liberals? What about the NDP which is not faring that much better either; Layton must certainly not want an election now over the Budget, unless he to figures the polls will continue their slide?

      Allowing Harper to stay in office longer will work against the Liberals as Canadians grow more comfortable with his Conservative government and drift away from the Ignatieff Liberals.

    • Namesake says:

      Except this “other” pollster in the tweet is actually the same one who reported just last week that the Tories lead had shrunk in half, rather than almost doubled.

      what, so Ipsos has suddenly gone from doing one national fed. poll every 6 weeks that takes 12 days in the field, to one every week that just takes a few days in the field?

      http://ipolitics.ca/2011/02/04/leading-tories-losing-vote-momentum-poll/

      But, fine, maybe the Cons’ wing-man Bricker is tweeting the truth, & its ‘cuz the attack ads have been running more since their last poll & have been working, & there was a new A-R poll commissioned to track that.

      Just as there’s been a full-court QMI & Post- media disinformation & wedgie press all week on corporate taxes, multiculturalism, child care, & censorship, & crime, and all that ‘roid rage may be rubbing off. If so, God help us all: we’re about to become the US of about 8 years ago, with all the attendant social ills & bankruptcies to follow.

      • Fear mongering about us becoming American won’t work. The loss of our Liberal-NDP socialist programs won’t work either.

        The opposition need better talking points and actual money to buy media outside the internet banners.

  3. Crocker Jarmon says:

    These results are a direct result of the election sabre rattling my the Liberals. If one thing has been certain in the last 2 years it is that Liberals numbers go down when the threat of an election increases. Just like Con numbers go down when there is little to no threat of an election. I believe WK has said as much, but I could be wrong (can’t be assed to go through the archives).

    • Warren says:

      Yep. It’s only explanation I can think of, too.

    • Pete says:

      So is that all forgotten when the writ is dropped?

      • Warren says:

        Usually. In 2000, we held the election well before the four year mark. Pundits, polls said we’d be punished. We weren’t, as I recall.

        • Cath says:

          something else to consider is the return to Ottawa and what we get via the boob tube from the legislature. Perhaps Ignatieff’s questions and ridiculous antics like the national anthem sideshow doesn’t appeal to those who might tune in. How do the polls for the Liberals compare when the house sits vs. when it doesn’t?

          Tuned in to Question Period a couple of time last week. One day I caught a few members of all parties on their laptops and more than a few paying more attention to their crackberries than what’s going on around them.

          Oh and by the way – I do believe that viewers are on to “seat-fillers” – man, if you’re going to pretend to have a full-house at least do it right. Actually, I think that the whole notion of having members move into the camera shot to surround who is speaking really a nice con by all parties.

  4. Sean says:

    Harper has forced two elections and both times he got more seats. When Jack Layton helped him force an election, he also got more seats. Canadian history would show that the party seen as forcing the vote almost never gets punished for it. The poor old Liberal Party, pleading with everyone that we didn’t want an election, got its ass kicked in 2006 and 2008. Alliance: same thing in 2000. The most important thing about bringing down a gov’t (which the current OLO misses all the time) is that you are immediately identified as the aggressor. Instant respect. Not necessarily support, but respect. Strong, full of conviction etc… Just the words ?non confidence? is wonderful drama for the start of an election? It gets everybody thinking, gets the blood boiling? The psychology of an election is often like the group mentality of a schoolyard. You might not like the kid causing all the trouble, but everyone wants to see what that kid is going to do next. You definitely don?t stand in his way. Conversely, no one likes the kid who gets into arguments all the time but always backs down from a fight? Especially when he comes from another school and skipped three grades.

  5. Philip says:

    What an odd time to release those particular poll results. By the time Frank Graves was doing his Chestershire Cat impersonation on P&P, Mubarak had stepped down and the focus was rightly on Egypt. It was a “one of these things doesn’t belong” moment. Why not drop the poll results today or even on Monday’s P&P, if that was the desired venue? Certainly it would have made a bigger media splash if the results didn’t have to compete with some pretty incredible news out of Egypt.

    As to the numbers themselves, I admit I am a little confused. The numbers for all parties have been pretty static for at least 14 months, barring minor bumps and dips, and then all of a sudden we are in CPC majority territory. Perhaps the numbers have moved due to the factors mentioned above but it doesn’t feel to me as if the Canadian political landscape has changed recently. I could, of course, be completely and utterly wrong about that.

  6. MississaugaLibPeter says:

    In 2006, Ignatieff had almost no second ballot strength because of

    1. Blue Liberal leanings
    2. His writings – there are plenty more writings that the Cons are aware of and will use when required
    3. His actual comments – the quotes that the Cons have used are not all of them that they have in the bag

    So what must the Liberals do:

    1. Accept his Blue Liberal leanings – I have, and I hate it, but at the end of the day The Dauphin is not yet leader
    2. Frame the Ballot question on honesty: and friggin’ stick to it

    The choice has to be: a PM who wants to make Canada into the 50th U.S. state – jails, Medicare, etc. – or a world-travelled PM who has lived in the U.S. and even referred to himself as an American (Ignatieff, dump the stupid advisors who have not told you that by acknowledging the truth, you can spin it favourably at best, neutralize at worst) and believes in making Canada great and in Canadian institutions that Canadians believe in (Ignatieff, wrap yourself in Pearson’s flag).

    Then take Harper clips and writings, and there are a lot, lot of them, and frame the integrity issue! Farmers hate big-time liars more than they hate visiting professors!

    Do you want the PM who

  7. These polls won’t matter next week. Most of us are not paying attention.

    The 36 day campaign will not matter until the last few days.

    The metrics we should be looking for?

    Which party can afford to buy media? Which party is prepared to run a national campaign?

    Balance sheets can’t be faked. Grass roots, donors, volunteers are they ready? What has been the track record for the last two years? The last five years?

    Has Ignatieff outperformed Dion? If Ignatieff improves from 2008 results to 27-28% does he keep his job? Doe Ignatieff follow Dion in forming a coalition if similar results occur?

  8. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    They don’t call it the Merry Month of May for nothing. It’s always darkest just before the dawn. I’m exceptionally trite today.

  9. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Namesake,

    They have rattled my cage more than a few times. Keep it in perspective and let’s concentrate on the big picture and the work ahead. Due diligence and tenacity are the order of the day.

    • Namesake says:

      This is probably re: my comment below (but got popped up here, which happens when a previous comment gets deleted);

      http://warrenkinsella.com/2011/02/tweet-wow/#comment-26357

      but note, the “They” is actually just the one ‘he’: Absurdant, who keeps reappearing here under different guises even though he was banished after making threats to WK’s family; but keeps coming to do the same concern troll ‘Liberals should dump Ignatieff for their own good’ routine, over & over, in endless variations — you know, the very definition of insanity.

      I’m weary of playing Van Helsing to his Crapula… and my poop-scooper’s getting full.

      But in reply to your other post (2 below), the concern trolls’ intent here is likely for a third option you don’t mention: they really do want the Liberals to act on their Iago-like advice to try to rid themselves of Ignatieff as leader — but not because they fear MI so much, obviously, but because toppling nother leader in such rapid succession will completely weaken the Party in the eyes of the voting public for several more years… long enough for them to get their “precious” majority.

  10. Namesake says:

    This just in:

    Pollsters advise voters to be wary of polls…

    “The way it’s working now is a real dog’s breakfast. It’s not working,” says Ekos Research president Frank Graves, who provides bi-weekly surveys to the CBC.

    …There is so much competition that political polls are given free to the media, in hopes the attendant publicity will boost business.
    [Andre Turcotte, a pollster and communications professsor at Carleton University] says political polls for the media are “not research anymore” so much as marketing and promotional tools. Because they’re not paid, pollsters don’t put much care into the quality of the product, often throwing a couple of questions about party preference into the middle of an omnibus survey on other subjects which could taint results.

    …”I believe the quality overall has been driven to unacceptably low levels by the fact that there’s this competitive auction to the bottom, with most of this stuff being paid for by insufficient or no resources by the media,” concurs [Allan Gregg, chairman of Harris-Decima]. “You know what? You get what you pay for.” ”

    http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/pollsters-advise-voters-to-be-wary-of-polls-ahead-of-possible-spring-vote-116112554.html

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