Musings —04.16.2011 09:00 AM—
- It’s wet and cold and gloomy around here this morning….Which should match the mood of some Liberal partisans (and some Conservatives). Personally, I’m ticked off that the ice is still on the lake, so we can’t get to the cabin to open it up (although we could walk, I suppose). My sons probably aren’t so unhappy – video shooter games of the type favoured by Stephen Harper were invented for days like today. So it’s a miserable, lousy day. Particularly politically. Here’s why.
- Grits are in trouble in Quebec: Federalists who want to stop the Bloc are looking at the strongest federalist alternative, les bleus. And my friend Martin Cauchon – who I have long felt was the guy most likely to be a future (and perhaps next) leader of the Liberal Party – is in trouble in Outremont. As Hebert writes, the Coderre-Cauchon dust-up (which, ironically, was caused by a lawyer from Toronto) shut down the LPC’s momentum in la belle province. And I’d wager that Iggy’s musings on Afghanistan (let’s stay longer), the oil sands (it’s an instrument of “national unity”) and health care (let’s look at charging people more for it) turned off Quebecois more than folks in any other province. Not good.
- The NDP is surging: You’ll notice, in Your Daily Nanos Crack™, that Stephen Harper isn’t doing particularly well, either – he’s been stalled for days. Why aren’t the Ignatieff Liberals celebrating about that? Because they’re facing a potential disaster – an NDP that’s been surging, big time, since Jack Layton’s much-lauded performance in both TV debates. If the Dippers don’t slide back to where they have been over the past few weeks and months, Liberal candidates will fall in squeeze plays. In this way, Ignatieff can say – and he should be saying it more – that a vote for Jack gets you Stephen. And with that, goodbye abortion, equal marriage, gun control and health care as we’ve known it.
- Why’s Harper in B.C.? He’s been comfortably ahead there for a while – so why the tour through ridings that should be safely Conservative? Because, as Nanos shows, he’s been slipping a bit there in recent days, the Grits have been steady – and, again, Layton is upticking. In B.C., I can tell you, that’s relevant – the swings are straight from left to right, or vice-versa, and often without a pausing in the Liberal middle. Harper can’t take anything for granted in always-volatile B.C.
- Enough with the doom and gloom! Here’s a column by the Post’s Kelly MacParland that you should read: he is singularly decent to Helena Guergis, unlike many other baying, bullying right-wing shills: “We’ve learned from his five years as Prime Minister that Mr. Harper is pretty skilled at ignoring transgressions when he wants to. But Ms. Guergis he threw to the wolves. Without knowing if she was guilty, as it seems now she wasn’t.” Meanwhile, his porcine, loathsome colleague mocks Guergis for – wait for it – crying. What an asshole.
- That’s not all, as they say in newspaper paragraph transitions! Chretien and Martin, as in previous campaigns, are back to rally Grit troops – and that can only be a good thing for the dispirited Grits (see above). Chretien has another big rally in Toronto – and Martin’s out West. Both men will have an impact, and it can only be positive for Team Grit.
- Pic of the day! Captionize away, Team wk.com!
“Captin! Captin! We’ve beamed up three strangely-gesturing men from the planet surface!”