Musings —04.18.2011 06:40 AM—
- The start to the second-to-final campaign week! And for the Tories (sort of) and the Grits (in particular) things are not so great. In yesterday’s Sun, I tried to address why some voters are making Stephen Harper unhappy (because they’re afraid what he’ll do with a majority), and in tomorrow’s paper, I will try to address why some voters are making Michael Ignateiff unhappy (because they’re uneasy that he chose to render the LPC a paler shade of Harper on some key issues). Thus, this morning’s stunner Angus Reid poll.
- The stunner poll: On most days, I look at most things from this particular firm with a proverbial grain of salt – but, that said, it’s consistent with what I’m writing tomorrow: namely, under Ignatieff and his senior staff, the Libs moved too far to the right on important issues (eg. Afghanistan, oil sands, health care, etc.). And now they’re paying the price: “An Angus Reid poll shows one quarter of Canadians say they would vote for the New Democrats, an increase of four percentage points since early this month. That puts the party in a tie for second place with the Liberals, who are also at 25 per cent after seeing their support drop by two percentage points over the same period. The Conservatives remain in first place with 36 per cent of the support, down by two percentage points but still a double-digit lead.” For lefty-Libs like me, it’s not a surprise – but it’s a disappointment, because it could have been avoided. Whenever we let Rosedale Liberals take over – under Turner, Martin and now Ignatieff – we lose folks to the NDP. Liberals never win when they go too far right.
- Why are the Cons a bit edgy, then? because, as is pointed out here by Jane, there’s whole lot of “turbulence” going on beneath the horserace numbers. And, as I’ve been suggesting to political pals, the national horserace numbers give a distorted picture: Harper can only win seats once, for example, in places like Calgary. So the huge numbers he has there are wasted – and it means he’s not as strong nationally as you might think. The majority may not come to pass: it all depends on GOTV.
- Touched a nerve! Wow – my column in yesterday’s aforementioned column in the Sun got nearly 300 comments here, and nearly 200 over on the Sun web site. Conservatives were enraged that I would suggest that Harper and Co. would go after guns, abortion and gays – and many were positively delighted, saying that that’s the kind of Canada they wanted. One Toronto-area Liberal campaign emailed me to say that they were hearing about the column at the doors – people were concerned about what a Harper majority would do to Canada. Meanwhile, a couple assholes make snarky remarks about my religion, so I told them to piss off and blocked them. Not bad for a Sunday!
- Candidate Rule #356: Never, ever let a reporter accompany your candidate as he or she goes on a door-to-door canvass. They’re always going to report on some single nasty exchange – not the dozens of positive receptions you got. Thus, this Star story, where we learn that the Conservative candidate in Helena Guergis’ riding – a medical doctor – is dispensing medical advice to people at the door. I’m not a doc, just the son of one, but I’m kind of wondering if that is, well, legal. It sure as Hell is inviting trouble.
- Most ridiculous column of the week: Seen here. It’s so dumb, it’s hard to know where to begin.
- Fill ‘er up: My newspaper has an editorial, here, about the only issue that all the Real People I know are talking about: the price of gas. On this one, Harper can be whacked by Messrs. Ignatieff and Layton – because he’s seen as the shill for greedy oil multinationals. Will they go after Harper today? We shall see. They should.
- Video of the campaign! Check out this spot by my Lib pal Bob Richardson – it’s the toughest (and most effective) sot of the campaign so far: