04.27.2011 12:21 PM

Worth remembering

These are the guys who said that Benedict Baldy, a.k.a. Rocco Rossi, was in third place in the Toronto mayoralty campaign, too.

 

12 Comments

  1. Brian says:

    Proposed reform: a website with running scorecards for polling companies.

  2. Brent Sienna says:

    I also remember “Dewey Defeats Truman!”

    To hell with speculation and polls, I’m tuning it all out until the election results are counted.

  3. artwilliams says:

    The article confirms much of the talk here and other places. The logic in the paragraph on Toronto seems reasonable.

    “In Ontario, although the NDP is set to win at least two Liberal seats in Toronto, Beaches-East York, held by Maria Minna, and Parkdale-High Park, where Liberal star Gerard Kenney is set to lose the riding back to New Democrat Peggy Nash, it is the Conservatives who are poised to gain from the Liberal implosion in the province. The poll results show the Conservatives are closing in on Eglinton-Lawrence, held by prominent Liberal Joe Volpe, a former leadership contender, since 1988, and at least four ridings from Liberals in the Greater Toronto Area.”

    I think that is all likely true. It’s not news that Volpe and Kennedy are in trouble. Minna I think may still win but is there any doubt that an NDP surge would put her seat in play? The GTA seats would be the usually talked about Mississauga and Brampton ones.

  4. Namesake says:

    re: discounting Forum’s poll accuracy:

    well, people change their minds in the course of a campaign, esp. one as long as Toronto’s mayoral election, so it’s really not so clear that Rossi wasn’t in third place when Forum Research said he was, in June or so.

    Because in a later poll, released on Oct. 15 (10 days before the election), he didn’t even make the topline results, but they were pretty darn close on those who did (not quite as close as Ekos, whose IVR methodology they share, but then Ekos’ last poll was in the field for almost a full week after this):

    Rob Ford 44% (actual: 47.1)
    George Smitherman 38% (actual: 35.6)
    Joe Pantalone 16% (actual: 11.7)
    Someone Else – 2% (actual: 5.6)

    http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/October2010/15/c2819.html

    And so re: this new poll, done just yesterday:

    I likey! Randomly-selected telephone; BIG n of 3,150; low MOE of 1.8; and low-burden, low-social bias interference IVR method.

    So that’s 3 big polls (Forum, Ekos, Angus Reid) in 2 days which puts the “precious” out of reach, with CPC capped at 34 or 35 nationally.

    http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/980804–ndp-s-jack-layton-riding-seismic-shift-into-second-place-poll-shows

  5. Mike L says:

    We’ll see. I’ve been canvassing on behalf of GK in Parkedale-High Park. The race is tight, no doubt, although I’ve gotten positive responses at most doors I’ve been too. Apparently the NDP has sent a team down from Ottawa to coordinate the campaigns for Peggy and the like.

  6. Paul R Martin says:

    Randomly selected? Perhaps! Perhaps not. We just do not know. How many respondents were there per riding? How likely are the respondents to actually vote? How old were the respondents. The majority of the people I saw at my advanced pool were much older than the general population. Each polling company has its own methodology leading to different party support levels but they show similar trends. All we can be sure about is that Conservative support has remained rather steady. They lead in every region other than Quebec. NDP support has risen (primarily in Quebec) even though some of their candidates are invisible. The Liberals and the Bloc are in decline and have aimed their attacks on the NDP rather than the Conservatives. It isn’t over until it is over, but the fat lady is beginning to exercise her vocal chords.

  7. Craig Chamberlain says:

    People are seeing Jack, not the NDP.

    • Brian says:

      Considering all the talk of “voting for MPs, not voting directly for PM,” this is ironic, isn’t it?

      • Ministry of Information says:

        well, that’s what they call being hoist on one’s own petard.

        Harper kept pushing the idea that we elect and give PMs mandates, as though they’re Presidents, and so now people are taking him up on that and asking themselves,

        hmm, do we want a sneaky, mean-spirited, secretive, misleading, bullying President Nixon, or a more ‘avuncular’ (take that, Gord) President Carter…

        and here’s how they’re answering:

        “The [new] Ipsos Reid poll, conducted on behalf of Postmedia News and Global National, reveals that Jack Layton is now picked as the federal leader who would make the best Prime Minister (45%), up 10 points since early April, and up a remarkable 22 points from April of 2009. Stephen Harper has dropped to second place (42%), down 5 points since early April.”

        http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5221

  8. AndrewOpala says:

    “Benedict Baldy” … too funny Mr. Kinsella. I’d hate to think what you call me if you knew who I was.

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