05.06.2011 03:49 PM

A few weeks later…

…I got shit supreme from some federal Grit friends when this column came out.  Reading it now, I guess it wasn’t so far off the mark.  (I completely missed the NDP surge, however.  I am comforted by the fact that I wasn’t alone in that regard.)

Wish I had been wrong.

32 Comments

  1. The Doctor says:

    Well Warren, I did notice that certain regular posters on this site, who shall remain nameless, spent most of the election campaign attacking pollsters and polls that they didn’t agree with, and insisting that the LPC was doing better than the polls indicated. Reminds me of a river in Egypt . . .

    • nastyboy says:

      Besides denying the polls many on this site took for granted that the electorate would just fall back into line and vote LPC like they always have. Denial is one thing, full-blown delusion based on taking the electorate for granted is another.

      Interesting article by Coyne

      http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/05/06/a-new-power-couple/

    • trollchaser says:

      One cannot agree or disagree with a poll. It is a statistical finding and a barometer of opinion. There is not much there to disagree with.. unless the methods of enquiry are false. Most polls published in the media are conducted by professional houses with decent reputations. The problem most people have with polls are the fact that during a writ period – the media is obsessed with them and instead of asking politicians pointed questions- they end up asking them to respond to their standing in a poll. The voters also get manipulated by them because then some caught up in the bandwagon affect- and might be inclined or persuaded to vote one way or another– For this reason– some think polls should be banned during the writ period so that people can be left to decide and listen to unfiltered messages by politicians with no bias or spin.

      • MCBellecourt says:

        Hear hear!! I felt like I was being manipulated every time I opened up a website, fortunately, I tried to glean as much information in between. But that takes time, and many people don’t have that kind of time. So they go with the polls and become sucked into the herd.

        The media failed all Canadians miserably in this election. Even the CBC wasn’t up to its former standards since the veteran journos left.

        We are being systematically dumbed down, and it is disturbing to say the least.

        • The Doctor says:

          Yeah. The Liberals lost because of the media. Or because of the abuse of polling info. Or because of [fill in lame excuse here] . . .

  2. Nuna D. Above says:

    It may have been stupid for the Liberals to force an election, but the Liberals were desperate. Desperate to have an election before the seat re-distribution makes them more unlikely to win a majority government. Desperate not to have the Conservatives have further control over the Senate, with 25 percent of the seats due to be replaced over the next few years. Desperate not to have Harper given control over selecting the next four Supreme Court judges. Desperate to replace Chretien’s party financing laws and bring back corporate donations. They rolled the dice, and lost big time.

    • MCBellecourt says:

      Peter Milliken, Speaker Of the House, elected by all parties for three straight terms, ruled that the Conservatives were in contempt of Parliament. The House belongs to Canadian taxpayers, the occupants our employees, the MPs.

      Contempt Of Parliament is akin to having a guest come in, eat your food and drink your wine, then without thinking about it, taking a dump on your living room carpet.

      Think about it.

      We have a right to know what government expenditures cost because WE PAY FOR IT.

    • Ron says:

      Fianally someone has mentioned the seat re-distribution, plus there is the reduction / removal of the voter subsidy.

      Warren’s column mentions the 20 point deficit, what it doesn’t mention is the poll numbers regarding the leader of the liberal party…abysmal

      They gambled on holding the Cons to a minority and then overthrowing them with a non-confidence vote and invoking the coalition…and then the winds of change took over (PM Jack Layton)

      The Liberals gambled and lost (and Canada in my humble opinion won)

  3. TDotRome says:

    Ya kinda still were wrong, despite the results being similar. The Orange Crush makes everything different. The NDP surge didn’t happen by itself on the side.

    Sure, the Tories did make some inroads with targeted efforts. But, that likely only added a couple of 905 seats. It was the NDP surge that gave the Tories a majority. There are 14 Tory seats that were won by a COMBINED 6201 votes. (Recounts notwithstanding.) The reasoning behind the victory is completely different. So much so, that it even surprised the neo-Cons, who conceded that a majority was out of reach just days before the election.

    The Liberal decimation is in large part because of the NDP vote. Things are very different now than they were in March.

    • Mike_02 says:

      And odds are things will be very different in 2015 than they are today. I’m tempted to wager that all the pundit prognosticators spewing theories now will look like chumps in four years. Actually, that’s a sure bet — they look like chumps already. No need to wait.

    • The Doctor says:

      “The Liberal decimation is in large part because of the NDP vote.”

      Wrong. In the Ipsos poll quoted by Warren in his linked article, the Tories led the Liberals by 19 points. On election night 2011, the Tories beat the Liberals in popular vote by 21 points. To say this decimation was “in large part because of the NDP vote” is a classic case of overlooking an elephant in the room. Sure, the NDP were a factor. But the Tories were kicking LPC butt before the election was called, and kicked LPC butt on election night.

      It was nuts for the LPC to want to go to the polls under these conditions, and WK was one of the voices of sanity in the Liberal Party. I don’t always agree with WK, but in this case he was right, and a lot of other Liberals were wrong.

      • TDotRome says:

        I think you guys are overlooking the fact that the Grits only had 77 seats going in…..not great to start with. If they had finished with say 60 seats. We’d only be calling it a marginal loss, but they still need to rebuild. Nobody would be calling it a crushing (pun intended).

        Where do you think most of the Liberal votes went? To the Tories or NDP? The Tory popular vote was pretty much the same.

        The reason I say WK was still wrong was the conditions on E-Day were completely different than at the beginning of the campaign. Something significant happened to every party. That wasn’t expected at the time of this poll.

        If all you do is look at the numbers, and not the reasons behind them, you blind yourself to reality.

      • trollchaser says:

        According to Marco Marzollini, the spread was not all that bad and the Liberals were gaining ground. It was a late 2 day spike that basically changed everything– so no WK did not know or have insight- cause at the time things looked manageable. Using that logic– McGuinty is way behind in the polls now and that doesn’t mean he is dead in the water come Oct. Campaigns do matter and if it was not for the NDP surge, and then the vote bleeding by the NDP Phobics basically sealed the Libs and the Cons fate.

        • The Doctor says:

          I wouldn’t trust Marzolini’s advice or views on this, he was presumably a participant in this LPC train wreck.

      • Blue (Da Ba Dee) says:

        NOT

  4. Anonymous says:

    Alfred Apps: Dumbest Liberal in Canada, or just doing the bidding of Scott Reid & Co.? Why is he still on the job?

  5. Cliff says:

    WK, what are your thoughts on this?

    “Chretien promoting Rae as interim Liberal leader”: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/987357–chretien-promoting-rae-as-interim-liberal-leader?bn=1

    “Sources say the former prime minister has been phoning both defeated and re-elected MPs since the Liberal party’s historic defeat in Monday’s election.

    The once-mighty party was reduced to third place with only 34 MPs — even Leader Michael Ignatieff lost his seat.

    Chrétien has been promoting the idea that Rae should be interim leader for two years, giving the party time to pick itself up off the mat before going into a contest to choose a permanent successor to Ignatieff.”

    • Bruce Wayne says:

      Doesn’t the LPC constitution say the have to have a leadership vote within six months of the leader resigning?

      • Blue (Da Ba Dee) says:

        ahh constitutions can be changed. Rules are meant to be changed as soon as those in power deem it time to make the suitable changes for their own gain. Haven’t you studied law? One can do whatever they want so long as it’s plausible and a lie can become believable as long as it is said with conviction. Truth hurts folks. Stare down your adversaries and they will crumble. All one needs to do is find a certain amount of like minded people and then get them to to make noise and create chaos, and twist enough arms to move mountains. Rules are for Fools Folks.

    • Ian Young says:

      I’m all for it.

      I could care less what Ontario thinks over the next few months, Rae would be interim. I-N-T-E-R-I-M. There is more to this country than Ontario and pandering to it’s provincial political past. Get active in the west and you might have an effective alternative to the cons and dippers next time. It is Apps we should be ousting.

    • Eric says:

      I wonder if some of these public endorsements are intended to pressure Rae into accepting the interim position in order to weaken or eliminate him as a contender for the full-time job?

      • Derek Pearce says:

        Yes. This more than anything seems on the money. Rae would be an honourable experienced interim leader while the party took its time to regroup and carefully choose a leader. But he can’t be the new leader going forward because he has too much history.

  6. JH says:

    Agree – this Quebec NDP situation is going to be real messy. Many of those seats will be up for grabs in 4 years time.

    • Blue (Da Ba Dee) says:

      Yah by the conservatives– Let the courting begin. It started with a “french kiss” and will end up with a full blown “sleepover”. Just wait till Maxine Bernier takes over and is at the HELM.

  7. Blue (Da Ba Dee) says:

    Les Rouge cannot merge. What would happen to all the provincial NDP parties with varying ideologies and positions throughout Canada? we have never had a merger containing any successful political parties with as deep a tradition and legacy as the GRITS. The LPC is stitched in our flag people. Things are different in Canada and I tell you the Libs will not face the same fate as the UK. The UK is Tory tinged, while Canadians bleed red.

    I’m not saying be complacent- but a merger is not the answer. I say we emulate the coalition that John A had. We can propose a coalition at the start of a campaign and demonstrate cooperation.

    But hey– if the NDP surge sputters, in four years they won’t look so good. People will also sour on the CONS. In 4 or 8 years the scandals will be unbecoming and Canadians will salivate at the opportunity to throw the BUMS OUT. The Liberals will look mighty nice at that time.

    “Tweedle Dee Tweedle Dum”

    Cmon folks

    where’s the pride in the Big Red Machine? It will be back.. the more people doubt it.. the better the ascent will be.

  8. Marco A says:

    On E-day, Mulroney and M. Duffy predicted a Tory majority. Mulroney thought this election was similar to the Free Trade election of 1988 where the Tories where on one side of an issue and all the other parties were on the other side resulting in vote splitting.

    After 1988, the Tories self-destructed by pursuing constitutional change and losing. This time around I doubt the Tories will make the same mistake; plus, they have a strong partnership between the West and Ontario senatorial divisions going. There is no great reliance on Quebec for power and the Tories won the immigrant vote.

    I think LPC should hope that NDP self-destruct with Franco-phones and take back these ridings. The Tories probably will be looking to double or triple their current Quebec seat total of 6 to balance out any Ontario seat give-backs in the GTA in the next election. The remaining Quebec seats are up for grabs is my guess. LPC should take them to get back Official Opposition status. Then try to win back majority of Ontario seats in the succeeding election to rebuild the partnership of the Quebec and Ontario Senatorial divisions that worked so well for Trudeau.

    The West will probably never take back the LPC just like Harper Tories have minimal appeal to Maritimes.

    • Marco A says:

      If Tories can pick up approx. 20 additional seats in Maritimes and Quebec in the next election then they will probably get re-elected with a majority in the next election cuz they will have insured themselves from losing close races in the GTA that benefitted from extreme vote splitting on the left. It’s hard to see the Tories losing seats in the West or going below 55 seats in Ontario provided they don’t start an constitutional crisis that they cannot win (ala Mulroney and Meech Lake) or tax and spend too much.

      I htink it’s very important that LPC don’t pick a leader that irritates the Western provinces like Trudeau did with the NEP; otherwise, they will lose the Vancouver gains that Chretien spawn in 1993 and get shut out completely in B.C., Alberta, Sask and probably Manitoba.

  9. Alfred E. Newman says:

    Bright side? you can forget about 1984 now. There is a new benchmark and 40 seats would be a good result.

    Who’s idea was it to move a non confidence motion when behind 10% in the polls?

    I was reading earlier that Iggy didn’t want to rehearse the debates. Yikes.

  10. Craig Chamberlain says:

    “The Liberal decimation is in large part because of the NDP vote.”

    That’s right.

    I think it’s opportunistic to ignore the fact Mr. Harper was elected with his majority because Blue Liberals and Red Tories decided to swing Conservative in Ontario. AGAINST JACK AND A NDP GOVERNMENT.

    Let’s give the results and the Liberal party the analysis both deserve. The meltdown was a function of the news that was “leaked” that a minority conservative government was likely, coupled with Harper’s explicit overtures to Liberals to stop a NDP government, that led to the death by a thousand cuts result in Ontario. And yet we continue to talk about a merger?! Not sure about our assumptions there!

    Was an election a gamble? Yes and no. No one saw the meltdown of the Bloc when this started. Was our hand dealt? Yes. The Liberal Party, which is often accused of standing for nothing, had to respond to the Contempt of Parliament finding. What we were to do with that? Nothing? HOW WOULD THAT have helped us in maintaining our base, how would that have helped with future fundraising?! Talk about being owned by Mr. Harper!

    And then there was the effect of the attack ads, which our good friend Jack will discover just how protected he has been from it, the same Jack who history will yet attach some blame for what a Harper majority does — Hey, great, you achieved Official Opposition. You’re over the moon with the result of being the Offical Opposition with a bunch of MPs no one, including the candidates vacationing abroad, had any expectation of winning, now sitting against a government you cannot defeat — so, hey, you can still conduct yourselves in the style you are accustomed, protesting as Mr. Principle without any risk of having to make good on what you say or do.

    With Harper in minority and folks looking to the Liberals as the ones most likely to replace him carried responsibilities for the Liberal caucus which included “supporting” a government they otherwise would not. But with the majority, Jack can continue to vote with principled outrage without responsibility supporting or bringing down a government.

    Was Ignatieff able to convince Canadians he was otherwise than how he was represented in the attack ads? Unfortunately, no. He deserved better. Canadian deserve better. Was there the possiblity of flushing some of that down the toilet with this election — yes. But then we had the Orange surge, with Quebeckers starting a grass fire that lit up Ontario.

  11. Africon says:

    In my own humble and amateur opinion, the LPC decimation was NOT in large part because of the NDP vote.
    Ford’s win Toronto was also not due to any far left appeal.
    Dalton Mc will also lose for the same reason that Sh and Ford won.

    There comes a time in economy’s history when the bulk of taxpayers “hit the wall” and simply revolt.
    That time has now come and that is the simplest explanation of what has happened here in Canada.

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