05.04.2011 03:36 PM

Election outcome contest

Okay, folks, some 200 of you participated in the Open Election Prediction thread.  As you may have heard, The Fascists won 167 seats, The Bolsheviks 102, those of us in The Rudderless Third Party 34, the Traitors 4, and the Green Lady 1.

So who came closest to that final result?  (Certainly not me; I didn’t think a majority would happen, and nor did I see the Bloc-heads falling as far as they did.)

Nothing after polls closed counts, naturally.  That would be cheating, and cheating isn’t permitted in Stephen Harper’s Canada, except and unless you are a member of his cabinet or caucus.

Do we have a winner?


  1. Bob LeDrew says:

    Wouldn’t figuring that out be your job?

  2. Bill From Willowdale says:

    I vote for geoffv who predicted Cons 165, Lib 51, NDP 65, Bloc 26, Greens 1. If came closest on the Conservative count. Funny how no one even came close.

    • Geoffv says:

      Obviously this Geoff fellow is extremely brilliant. Just the kind of person that Warren needs to rebuild the Liberal party. He was the only one to predict the huge majority.
      Plus he has run out of reading material.

    • Phil in London says:

      Hey I was relatively close on 3 out of 4
      CPC 158
      NDP 85
      Bloc 38
      Liberals 37
      Got the majority right
      Got real close on both the Lib and CPC seats
      Got the NDP surge (just underestimated it)
      Only real screw up was the Bloc

      CPC off by 7
      NDP off by 22
      Bloc off by 34
      Liberals off by 3
      Green off by 1
      Total off 67

      Whereas Geoffv
      CPC off by 2
      Liberas off by 17
      NDP off by 37
      Bloc off by 22
      Greens perfect
      Total off 78

  3. Chris says:

    Some close(ish) ones – The BQ played the spoiler role here:

    Paul says:
    April 29, 2011 at 4:09 pm

    con 156
    dip 100
    lib 23
    blq 29
    Total 308

    • Paul says:

      Thanks Chris.

      I did think the Dippers would win more in TO and BC from the libs and didn’t see the total decimation of the traitors.

      Next time Libs need to nominate waitresses and have them campaign from Hawaii…


  4. Craig Chamberlain says:

    From Elections Canada:
    Closest races in 2011

    Jay Aspin (CON) – Nipissing–Timiskaming, ON – won by 14 votes (0.03% margin); Anthony Rota (LIB) finished second.. A judicial recount is normally automatic.

    Ted Opitz (CON) – Etobicoke Centre, ON – won by 25 votes (0.05% margin); Boris Wrzesnewskyj (LIB) finished second. A judicial recount is normally automatic.

    François Lapointe (NDP) – Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup, QC – won by 5 votes (0.01% margin) after the validated count reversed the election night win by 100 votes of his opponent Bernard Généreux (CON). A judicial recount is automatic,

    Kevin Lamoureux (LIB) – Winnipeg North, MB – won by 45 votes (0.18%); Rebecca Blaikie (NDP) finished second. A judicial recount is not automatic, but may be requested.

    It’s been reported that the Vegas Dipper may have a problem with her nomination papers.

  5. Nuna D. Above says:

    Here are some numbers to go with that colourful map. In New Brunswick, Liberals finished third in 7 of 10 ridings. In Nova Scotia they finished third in 4 ridings. In Nfld. only one third place finish, with less than ten percent of the vote in that riding.
    In Quebec the Liberals had 24 third place finishes and 34 fourth place finishes. They received less than ten percent of the vote in 33 Quebec ridings and less than 5 percent in 2 ridings.
    In Alberta, the Liberals had 15 third place finishes and 10 fourth place finishes. They received less than 10 percent of the vote in 8 ridings and less than 5 percent in 8 ridings.
    In Sask. the Liberals had 13 third place finishes, with 8 ridings below 10 percent and 5 below 5 percent.
    Support for the gun registry didn’t seem to help much in Ontario and Quebec, but does cost the Liberals support on the Prairies, where many ridings that had them below 5 percent also had them below 3 percent.

  6. dave says:

    Closest I came was 308 MP’s.

    • The Doctor says:

      Me too. Thank God I learned to add and subtract in Elementary School. I made the same mistake as most people: underestimated Fascist support, underestimated LPC swoon, and especially did not foresee almost-total BQ meltdown (and corresponding Dipper harvest of Quebec seats). Re: NDP Quebec candidates, I sure wish I would have been able to repay my student loans on a 157K MP’s salary . . .

  7. Bill M. says:

    I’m still in Liberal Westmount-Ville Marie….planting seeds, hoping for the best.

  8. Dr.J says:

    If you check my past posts WK, I had the CPC at 165-175 seats. However I had the Libs losing 10-15 remaining second and the NDP gaining the 10-15 seats..so I was 33% correct. The Bloc well I didnt even think about them.

  9. Tom Hawthorn says:

    With respect to geoffv and Bill from Willowdale, and Paul and his nominator Chris, I’d like to make a claim on the prize with CPC 156, NDP 94, Liberal 40, Bloc 18, Greens/Ind. 0. I was off by 11, 8, 6, 14 (sigh), and 1 for an aggregate of -40. Paul’s aggregate is -50, while Geoffv’s is -77.

    • Bill From Willowdale says:

      Good point. Your prediction does seen closer.

    • Chris says:

      Good point – I was eyeballing it, your mathematical method seems more accurate.

      Perhaps if I’m bored I’ll scrub the page and throw it all into a spreadsheet.

    • visionseeker says:

      Thanks for doing the math Tom. I had Phil as the clear winner, but then I saw your post near the end. So I went back to look at Phil’s but had too much trouble finding it because I completely missed the “hauser” part of his username.

      I nominate you as the winner.

  10. Adam says:

    No we didn’t, we lost big time.

  11. The Doctor says:

    No, the alien lizard-people who control Harper and inhabit his body won.

    I’m not making this up.

  12. Mike London says:

    I went with CONS 135 NDP 100 LIB 53 BLOC 20, so i was way off.

  13. Marco A says:

    Can we get the Vegas Dipper to figure out who won? Might be good experience on how to count votes in the House of Commons.

  14. Steve T says:

    Would appreciate if you refrained from calling conservatives “fascists”.

  15. Chris says:

    Ok, here are the tabulated results. Looks like Tom above was correct in declaring himself the winner (based on his methodology)


    Feel free to reply if you’d like to see me do some different calculations.

    • fritz says:

      Thanks Chris. What’s amazing to me is there were no correct guesses for the Tories and BQ and only one each for the Liberals and NDP. A monkey throwing darts at a board could have done better than us experts. 😉

  16. AndrewOpala says:

    What are those red areas on the map? Looks like somebody didn’t get the memo!

    re: winners. I think …
    (1) drop all the ones that had the liberals winning more than the NDP
    (2) then drop all the ones that had the BQ getting more than 20
    (3) then pick the ones with the most PC seats

    Then the winner is not really the winner because only 27% of the answer is correct! Just like voting in a Federal election!

    If you go to a Doctor, would you rather go to the one that has studied medicine and wants to be a doctor or do you go to the one that was posted to medical school by their parents? Same question for a mechanic … Same question for a lawyer … If you can see the pattern here. Why, oh why, did people vote for so many people in ridings who should not be in Ottawa? – who don’t even care enough to hammer a sign into the ground?

  17. Robin says:

    I was off a ways with:

    Conservative: 135
    NDP: 97
    Liberal: 59
    Bloc: 16
    Green: 1

    Still closer than most depending on the metric you want to use to determine victory. I was off 22 on the Tories, 5 on the NDP, 25 on the Liberals, and 12 on the Bloc. So a total of 64 off from the total. I really didn’t see the Liberal collapse in Ontario. I would feel bad about putting my name in the running, given my failure to foresee the Conservative majority, were most people not already guilty of that. I will accept bonus points for correctly guessing that the Greens would get a seat and Andre would not.

  18. marta says:

    It was a freak show… Nothing real about it and it is getting even freakier soon.

  19. tceh says:

    The 19 year old NDP MP is the true victor. If he can hang on for 6 years he will have a gold plated pension financed by you and me…not bad for a 25 year old.


    • Rick T. says:

      Just maybe Harper will get rid of that pension.

      • fritz says:

        ^Not a chance. His own MP’s would revolt. Cutting the public service and their benefits doesn’t include MP’s.

        • Patrick Hamilton says:

          Yes Chuck Strahl, and a number of Reformers railed against “gold plated pensions”, and in the end were first in line to the trough…..

          Not to say Mr. Strahl didnt earn it, he was a fine MP, and worked very hard on behalf of his constituents, but I resented Reforms hypocrisy on the issue…..

  20. I vote for myself: I said I had no idea. At least I was honest.

  21. Craig Chamberlain says:

    Canada lost. Continentialist won.

    • nic coivert says:

      Deep American integration won, Lockheed Martin won, the NRA won, Charles McVety won, the minority of Canadian right wing ideologues won, the oilspill in the Peace river valley won, the politics of self interest one, the visionless one, propaganda one.

  22. Greg says:

    Holy Crap! Ralph Goodale needs to lose weight. I can see him from space!

  23. Craig D says:

    I was 137 off in total. Correct on the conservative majority, wrong on everything else. Oh well. Not as good as many of my fellow contestants but better than most of the pro and pundits.

  24. Michael says:

    Oy vey, does this mean we have to let Elizabeth May & whoever is leading the Bloc into the next leader’s debate?

  25. Jon Powers says:

    Warren, I nailed it. I predicted with 100% accuracy – in my head. And I didnt’ tell anyone until after the results where in. Amazing, I know. Where do I collect my prize?

  26. fritz says:

    “And the GTAs political dynamic is forever changed.

    ^If this election tells us anything it’s forever is a long time. Lets just say till the next election.

  27. Aurelia says:

    My only prediction was “Who the hell knows? This could be any result with these crazy polls.”

    Which makes me the winner, except that I didn’t formally enter the contest because I was busy doing GOTV. 🙂

  28. Patrick Hamilton says:

    I did predict one thing(along with Mr Kinsella)……http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20110504/conservatives-religious-right-supporters-110504/

    “Whether Mr. Harper likes it or not”

    For Mr. Tulk, Watkins, et al

  29. GPAlta says:

    I agree that Tom Hawthorn is the clear winner.
    I had five parties in the right order (I think that green should count as “other”), I was second closest on the actual Liberal number, and I was tied for third on Chris’s spreadsheet. So all in all, I’m much happier with the relative accuracy of my prediction than I am with the real outcome.

  30. nastyboy says:

    Gord won a $1000.00 if I’m not mistaken.

  31. MattMcD says:

    I gave the bloc 9. That’s was as close as I got.

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