11.21.2012 12:20 PM

Before you start measuring the drapes in Langevin, Liberals…

…note the name of the polling firm.

9 Comments


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    Dan says:

    These polls are so meaningless…. MAKE IT STOP


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    !o! says:

    Still, the lowest numbers for CPC yet from Forum, which at least suggest downward momentum of some sort. Assuming they use the same methodology.

    I think contrary to what one might be otherwise inclined to believe given their accuracy, you can get SOMETHING out of polls, just not the numbers they publish.


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    !o! says:

    Interestingly though, if you believe there is anything at all to the age breakdown, this gives some evidence for something I’ve been saying since he announced his run– people, and especially those with longer memories, are nostalgic for what Canada used to represent, they know that the economy goes up and down, often without regard to who is in power, but they see real damage being dealt to what Canada itself means, what it used to mean, and what it means to the ruling party, and they don’t like it.

    If Justin continues to stand for what his father did in this regard, I think the liberals will continue to do well with the older demographic.


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      Bluegreenblogger says:

      I nearly had a heart attack when I read this:

      “Only 27% of Canadians aged 18 to 34 would vote for a Trudeau-led Liberal party, the same percentage that would vote Tory. The NDP, at 34%, remain young Canada‚Äôs choice.
      But Trudeau performs quite strongly with middle-aged Canadians, winning decisively in all age groups over 45.”

      Polling for voting intentions is sort of a joke at this stage, but while it doesn’t predict anything useful, it does provide some useful info. In this case let us just say the Trudeau demonstrates the POTENTIAL to win those votes, and from soft intentions are hard preferences formed. I am excited by this because it means that for the first time in a decde or so, the Liberal Party (under Trudeau) seems to have a real opportunity to win supporters directly from the CPC. It explains his CNOOC – Nexen piece. I think that he, or his advisors, (which amounts to the same thing) are going to acheive some awesome things. They are proving very adept. I will wait until next spring to make any final decisions, but I am getting excited about politics again. So much for the Shiny Pony label.


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        !o! says:

        Yup. I always was a bit uncomfortable with Warren’s assertions that you needed a merger in order to win. It almost seemed as if in order to believe that, you needed to adopt the assumption that something fundamental had permanently changed in Canadian politics. People had lost their pragmatism, or our cultural fabric had gone beyond some point of no return. Worse, Advocating a merger seems to me to advance this assumption– to me a merger only precipitates the type of polarized two-party hyper partisan politics that exist in the US, with the accompanying increasingly narrow range of viewpoints that people have access to as a result. Parties have gone up and gone down in public support since we have had parties in this country.

        The CNOOC – Nexen announcement was extremely aptly timed and placed though, he has a good team.


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          !o! says:

          And, I should say, most importantly, if we adopt these assumptions, proceed with a merger, and if everyone buys into the notion that there needs to be a single party to oppose the Cons, it basically permanently cedes control over a certain demographic to the Conservative party, since you adopt the notion of a right-left divide and simplify things. The game becomes right-vs-left where it never really was that before. It’s really playing into the CPC hand imho.


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    Sean says:

    except that its… ahem… EVERY POLLING FIRM.


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    Reality.Bites says:

    Of course I also remember the polls saying a Liberal Party led by Paul Martin would somehow win not only all the seats in Parliament, but a few hundred in the US Congress, UK Parliament and Japan’s Diet.

    Didn’t quite turn out that way. It’s a long time till the next election. And yes, I do believe a LIberal victory is a distinct possibility, and more likely than an NDP victory. But still, just a possibility at this stage.


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    Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    You wonder how Stephen Harper sees his party’s “momentum” going forward — is it sure and steady over the next two years? Could it possibly be ticking upward or will it be all down-draft city? And perhaps more importantly, is he personally still a political asset at the polls or at what point does the PM become a political liability?

    Sort of brings us back to those inconvenient best-before dates, doesn’t it. The man is a thinker with much to ponder, I’d say.

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