01.04.2013 10:30 AM

A real polling firm on Trudeau/Libs

Ipsos is real polling company.  Not one of these sleazy shops that pollute too much of our public affairs, these days.

And here’s what they are saying:

“The nationwide survey by Ipsos Reid conducted exclusively for Postmedia News and Global TV also revealed that a majority of Canadians still believe the Liberals, out of power since 2006, will one day return to govern the country.

The poll found that 69 per cent of Canadians feel Trudeau will win the Liberal leadership contest, as compared to 19 per cent who felt astronaut-turned-MP Marc Garneau would eventually prevail…Moreover, while Trudeau has found himself at the centre of controversy after criticizing the long-gun registry last month and for comments he made about Alberta in 2010, 62 per cent of respondents said he has the best chance of leading the Liberals to victory in the next election.”

Those are real numbers, and suggest that – if Trudeau wins – Angry Tom Mulcair’s stay at Stornoway is not going to be a long one.



  1. Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
    OdysseusCA says:

    While I believe a Liberal in Stornaway would be a massive improvement we need a new occupant at 24 Sussex Drive more.

    I would propose the TEMPORARY formation of an Opposition “Unity Party” formed from the Liberal, New Democrat & Greens. I would further propose that Elizabeth May be named the “Leader” in the interests of neutrality with Tom Mulcair & the successful Liberal candidate for leadership as powerful cabinet members.

    The major purpose of this union would be manifold, get the “Harper Government”™ out of power, develop & pass electoral reform legislation with my preference being preferential balloting, and the creation & funding of an independent study group to look at Constitutional reform to recognise the tripartite nature of Canada & its 3 founding peoples.

    When those tasks are done this Unity Government should then dissolve Parliament & go to the polls under the new Electoral system. Then perhaps we can have a government & Parliament where EVERY MP gets their seat in the House by a true majority of 50%+1.

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      garrattguy says:

      Completely agree with Ody above but am convinced it will never happen. Too many people (May included) have egos that tell them they can win alone and are putting their personal ambitions above the needs of the country as a whole.

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      Michael says:

      Harper was able to convince Canadians that the Dion/Layton coaltion was illegitamate, even illegal and that the seperatists were part of it. He would have a field day with this hare brained scheme. Your suggestion is DOA.

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        OdysseusCA says:

        Going to the polls in the fall of 2015 with a divided Centre Left is what should be DOA. Harper’s ability to convince the Canadian electorate that the Dion/Layton coalition was illegitimate & illegal was based upon him lying loudly & promiscuously. I think that the dissatisfaction of the Progressive Electorate is sufficient that a Unity Party would emerge victorious over the Conservatives IF properly presented & explained PRIOR to the election.

        This was Harper’s biggest, albeit false, complaint that it was a coup d’tat undertaking by stealth.

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          Bill says:

          This is hilarious….why would the NDP and Greens want to partner with a brand that is declining?
          Canadians wouldn’t like the idea of all the left parties coming together just for the purpose to defeat Harper. You need more.

          How about the liberals actually get some policies going that average Canadians agree with. Stop with the social engineering polices, work on tangible things and stop being a Quebec first party.

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            OdysseusCA says:

            Spoken like a true RepubliCON,… every time I hear that kind of squawk from the right I KNOW I’m on the right track. A united left would DOOM the Conservatives, sure some of the Bluer Liberals would go to the CPC but not many.

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            Bill says:

            You haven’t been on the right track for a decade….time to listen to the squawk:)

            At this point why would the NDP want to merge with the libs?
            Libs are not the big boys of the left anymore, a merged party would not be called libs….this would destroy many a folk.

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      frmr disgruntled Con now Happy Lib says:

      ????…..I think we have far more that unites us than divides us……..Im for anything that prevents “Dear Leader” and his cabal from continuing taking Canada down the wrong path(which will become increasingly difficult to undo as time goes by)
      Besides, wasnt it Louis St. Laurent who branded the CCF/NDP as “Liberals in a hurry”?…..

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      OdysseusCA says:

      Did you not read my full post? For the purpose of Electoral & Constitutional Reform! It is suggested as a one election, one time only thing, not a permanent union.

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        Warren says:

        Or, throw one?

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        Stew B says:

        Trusting the NDP would be comparable to throwing a tooth-stick through an open car window while driving down the 401 at 130 kms.

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      bluegreenblogger says:

      Fine idea, that will go nowhere.
      As an aside, the Green Party does not really exist nationally in any meaningful way any more. (Meaningful because polled support levels do not mean much if the electrate does not have a GPC candidates name on the ballot on EDay.). The GPC got rid of all organisers 3-4 years ago to focus 100% on Elizabeth May’s riding (SGI), and to try to create a regional base in BC. The millions of dollars they have spent in BC have helped them to partially acheive that goal, but at the cost of losing everything, everywhere else. For example, a total of 118 Green Party Electoral District Associations have been de-certified by Elections Canada so far, and I suspect that the loss of the per vote subsidy which is shared between the Party and the EDA’s will mean that at least half of the remaining EDA’s will be gone when they are de-certified next year for failing to file returns this year. That means zero money, no organisation, no volunteer base etc for the next Federal General election, outside of BC, and a few isolated Electoral Districts in Ontario and Alberta. I would be totally amazed if the GPC expended the effort needed, including hiring new organisers, working the phones, etc to recruit anything near to a full slate of candidates next time around. Elizabeth May will obviously try to cloak this weakness by telling the world that they are not fielding candidates where there is a chance to un-seat the CPC incumbent, or challenger, but seriously, that will be damage control, and an attempt to wring out an advantage in the few BC ridings where they may have some chance, provided an electoral pact can be formed. Long and short, I do not begrudge the GPC trying their best, but any political party entering into negotiations with them should be aware that they have very little to offer, and leaving them to their own devices will see them disappear in 90% of the country over the coming three years.

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    Ronald O'Dowd says:


    I’m not looking for one day…I like to think I’m anchored in the here and now. I’m not betting my marbles on who wins the consolation prize — Stornoway. My money will be on the guy who I think can win, or at least place, in every region and form a truly national government. In my mind, that’s Marc Garneau. People believe Justin can win. He might very well but from where I’m sitting, thinking it is one thing, doing quite another. The West will be one hell of a tall order with Trudeau as leader.

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      Stew B says:

      One thing Garneau has in his mind that none of the other candidates will ever have… a global view of Canada in the world.

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    John Morse says:

    Justin or Tom in Stornaway
    Tom or Justin in 24 Sussex Dr.
    Steve (and most of his pals) in some privately operated mental institution, prison or asylum.
    Harperland a faded memory of a blot on Canada’s psyche.
    What a lovely thought.

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      Rick Thomson says:

      Have some more Koolaid.

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    Paul says:

    Garneau is the only chance the Libs have of regaining power in 2015. He is a rational, intelligent and thoughtful guy while Trudeau is nothing but an empty box, a “Shiny Pony” as some have put it. I just can’t stand the guy. I hate his face, I hate hearing him speak. Sorry, but that’s just the reaction I have to him. The Cons will slaughter him with attack ads narrated in his own words, and they will hit home.

    The real problem with the Liberals is that lately they have been looking and sounding a lot like “NDP-lite” rather than the old days of them being the “mushy middle.” Guys like Chretien and Martin at least understood that an environment that is conducive to business is what creates a strong economy and the tax revenues to support the social programs that people seem to think are funded out of thin air.

    They need a leader who “gets it” and will not simply pander to the Occupy-minded idiots in a shameless attempt to capture NDP voters.

    • Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
      The Doctor says:

      I think you’re on to something, in that lately, it seems like the more left-leaning Liberals have been the most vocal and active. The Martin-McLaren-Manley Liberals seem to be sitting on the sidelines. One thing about the LPC though, it seems to be like some weird device that reflects the personal views of whichever Liberal is looking at it. You talk to a left-leaning Liberal, and that person will swear that the LPC has always been left-leaning etc. (and these people conveniently forget about Chretien-Martin etc.). Talk to a centrist Liberal, and all you hear about is “moderate”, “pragmatic”, “centrist”, with no mention of things like FIRA, NEP etc. etc.

  5. Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
    Bruce A says:

    I wouldn’t count Tom Mulcair and the NDP out anytime soon. After all, if the Old Reformers can form and hold government for about ten years, then why not the NDP. They can’t be any worse than those yappy ‘conservatives’ and their omnibus bills.

    Let’s have Proportional Representation with more public institutions and public servants like the PBO and Kevin Page. Okay, so I’m dreaming but still … cause Harper ain’t finished yet. So much damage to be done and so little time. Though The Great Helmsman, as someone called him, will take credit for the latest jobs number and Southern Ontario is going to decide the nations fate in the next election.

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      OdysseusCA says:

      Well the “Old Reformers” didn’t form & hold government. The chimeric abomination known as the Conservative Party of Canada did. It is the union of the far right wing libertarian styled Canadian Alliance with the old Progressive Conservative electoral machine & name grafted on to it.

      • Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
        Bruce A says:

        Same DNA.

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          Ronald O'Dowd says:

          Bruce A,

          Not really. Most parties are multi-coloured rainbows and that was certainly our case as federal Progressive Conservatives.

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    Joey Rapaport says:

    I’m drinking the Koolaid, need a change, and NDP would be disgusting… Already getting raped by the Manitoba NDP, can’t take anymore!

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    Dan says:

    Liberals will never follow the dominant NDP into a merger or coalition because that would be political suicide. The Liberal hope is to become the OOP after the 2015 election and watching the NDP Quebec vote vanish. Only then could the Liberals bring the Left into a merger.

    Best scenario post 2015 — Con minority government and 12-18 month merger process and then an election with Liberals at the helm of the merged party.

  8. Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
    !o! says:

    “at the centre of controversy”…

    “at the centre of manufactured controversy” would be a better descriptor. Media talking about things they want people to make a fuss about.

  9. Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
    dave says:

    I like the “…Angry Tom Mulcair…” stuff.
    Libs and Conservs, framing the enemy!
    (What’s the diff between the Libs and Conservs again?)

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    Luke says:

    I’m not sure you’re allowed to make fun of polling firms and their lack of credibility, while also being a regular featured guest of Sun News… 😉

  11. Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
    bluegreenblogger says:

    I get it that most long-term Liberals are interested in the broad strokes of politics. Grand themes, positioning, triangulation, the ‘Air War’ etc. These things are all important, but I come from a different place. Where I sit, boots on the ground count. Phone banks of dedicated volunteers. Reams and reams of actionable supporter lists, and identified supporters all organised to contribute their little pieces to the puzzle of a national organisation. Enthusiasm, and hard work in between and during elections is what will re-build and empower the Liberal Party.
    These polls are exciting, because that broad theme stuff that normally interests about as much as this weeks weather forecast is making a very large number of people receptive to joining the Liberal Party as supporters. Those supporters are the volunteers, and the backbone of an invigorated Liberal Party. It is happening right now, at this moment, so really, who cares how many pundits and armchair quarterbacks opine one way or the other about shiny pony’s or steady hands at the tiller? The LPC is being rebuilt already, and Justin Trudeau is the number one reason why. I should not fail to commend the party on allowing supporters to vote. It is a gift to anybody who seriously wants to build up their membership, donor, and volunteer lists. Believe me, it is like shooting fish in a barrel asking known Liberal voters to become a supporter and vote for the next leader. No matter whom you support for the leadership, if you pick up a phone for a couple of hours to test my theory, you will be convinced of the brilliance of the supporter category. A LOT of People are fed up, and really, really WANT to help the Liberal Party, they just need to be asked.

    PS: When the Leadership race is over, the Liberal Party should retain the supporter category, and expand the perquisites of non-paying members. Maybe by allowing supporters to vote on pre-writ policies? Something that allows us to tag and organise amongst supporters according to policy interests. A powerful database will be the key to winning the next general election, and no-strings-attached membership status is a phenomenal tool for building that database.

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