Musings —02.18.2013 04:01 PM
—Overheard Family Day musings
As Daughter One and Son Two tear up the slopes, I write in the insanely overcrowded ski “resort” cafeteria. And I eavesdrop.
Based up the bits and pieces I have overheard, I offer the following:
1. The Ontario PCs have been hiring campaign managers and staff for weeks. They will vote against the Throne Speech and March’s budget. They’ve got a popular party and an unpopular leader. Despite that, they’re getting ready.
2. The Ontario NDP will let the Throne Speech pass, but will probably vote against the budget in March. The government will accordingly fall, and an election will happen, likely in May. The New Democrats have a very popular leader – and a party about which voters are less enthusiastic. They are less ready than the PCs.
3. Under Dalton McGuinty – who gave us Family Day, thank you very much – the Ontario Liberal coalition was mainly voters who supported McGuinty provincially and Harper federally. That’s why McGuinty was always careful never to move too far to the Left. His successor, however, wants to create a new coalition – progressive Liberals and fiscally-minded New Democrats. It’s a laudable goal, but she doesn’t have enough time. McGuinty’s coalition took years to create. You can’t create an entirely new one in a few weeks. Particularly when you’re in government. And particularly when your party has lost most of the central campaign managers who helped you win in 2003, 2007 and 2011.
So, after all that overheard stuff, what are all the Family Day families truly thinking?
They’re presently looking awfully orange, from where I sit.
Ontarians will never entrust government to the NDP again. The only agenda for the next government of whatever stripe is where to begin cutting.
Mike Harris. Mike Harris. Mike Harris. And Mike Harris.
Those memories are FRESH.
Mike Harris vs. Dalton Mcguinty. Mike Harris all day long, he didn’t destroy Ontario like Mcguinty has!!! His latest scandal (gas plants) have
potential of being more expensive then anyone could have imagined. Me thinks this is why he ran away with no excuse!!!!
My money is on Mulcair for today’s race:
http://www.torontosun.com/2013/02/17/mandarin-not-an-official-language-mulcair
Year of the Snake, meet Honey Badger …
Your third point is exactly what I see playing out, but correspondingly I don’t see the Liberal vote collapsing quickly enough to put the NDP through. I am thinking a replay of the 2006 Federal, where the daunting thought of a Hudak majority shifts things to a minority in the last 10 days or so.
I’m thinking along these lines also ottawacon.
The results of the last provincial election show that the coalition Dalton had was starting to fracture. If it hadn’t he would have won another majority. So the new premiers choice is to go what was starting to fail, or try and forge a new winning coalition.
The Ontario PC Big Blue machine was able to enjoy a 40 year run of electoral success because every 10 years or so it renewed itself.
3 is dubious. But I agree that Horwath is a bigger worry than Hudak.
Yeah, thanks for family day, it was great to run random errands when it’s -4. I really hated having the August holiday to actually do stuff in the warmth.
Family Day in principal is not a bad thing but it is Ontario’s employers who have to pickup the tab for it and most of Ontario’s employers can not afford it. It’s just another reason why businesses are leaving Ontario and why those that are left suffer. Aren’t there enough paid stat holiday already? It’s also another day my kids don’t get an education. And, the reality in my house is that when I say to the kids “Let’s do something as a family today” they say “Naw we just wanna play xbox”.
If the businesses in Canada’s largest, strongest province are so marginal they will fail if salaried employees are 1/220th less productive because of an extra holiday and shift workers get time and a half, we may as well shut down the country already.
Spoken like a typical government or otherwise unionized worker.
“Let’s do something as a family today” they say “Naw we just wanna play xbox”.
I’m afraid that statement sais more about you as a parent than your kids.
Companies waste lots of money. A well rested and happy employee will pay off in dividends and in spades later on.
As for losing a day of education… Ha.. check the amount of days the average school kid takes off for random frivolous things or the amount of days missed to go on vacation with their parents either before or after march break because the rates are cheaper.. then talk to me about missed school days buddy :o)
“I’m afraid that statement says more about you as a parent than your kids.”
Yeah, I’m a lousy parent… working 70 or more hours a week trying to support my family and keep a struggling business afloat.
Maybe you’re just a lousy businessperson.
I don’t buy #3. The Dalton coalition included centre-lefties too. That’s why Liberal drop meant NDP rise in polls in 2012.
Wynne is way smarter than the 2012 Dalton. She wants the pre-2012 Dalton coalition back.
We shall see! PCs just reintroduced contempt motion…
Warren, do you think it will hurt Hudak that he appears to be he is the one that wants an election?
Don’t think so. He’s been pretty consistent. And the shelf life of your average minority government is less than 2 years.
“the Ontario Liberal coalition was mainly voters who supported McGuinty provincially and Harper federally. That’s why McGuinty was always careful never to move too far to the Left”
Harper coalition came after McGuinty’s. McGuinty also chose to craft his coalition the way he did (Centre/Right).. which sais alot about him. He could have chosen a centre left coalition but he did not. That is very telling. This makes it seem like he did not move left out of fear of upsetting his coalition…. but he crafted the coalition to his liking. He was very comfortable in his centre/right position.
I also disagree that Kathleen does not have enough time. With Horwath’s support she has until 2015/2016. Which is plenty of time to rebrand and re-image. She just might get that chance because people aren’t warming up to WHODat
except that Horwath would be out of her mind to play ball with Wynne, when she (Horwath) has what Wynne needs and wants – popularity and momentum. I think that Horwath can do just fine all by herself with no help from Wynne. I’m pretty sure that Horwath is smart enough to know what Wynne’s after.
Historically, when Ontario has an NDP Government, there si a different party in power in Ottawa.
Historically? Ontario has only ever had one NDP government.
I was playing with an old cliche about Libs and PC’s.
It’s just that I can’t figure out how to get in the drum roll with my witticisms on a message board.
Given there has never been a federal NDP Government it couldn’t be anything else whether we had just the 1 NDP govt or decades of NDP governments in Ontario
Personally I think Rae got a bad rap, and the unions screwed themselves on that one by swinging Tory (don’t like Rae days and everyone still employed great go Tory and watch your union brethren lose their jobs ya dopes)