04.24.2013 04:35 PM

Ipsos: the latest provincial political numbers, hot off the press

Right here.

What’s it mean?

You know damn well what it means.

31 Comments


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    Edward E says:

    Enema ! A PC or NDP government purging of the province of Liberal snafu’s. Now we wait to see if Horwath will prop up political sister Wynne to avoid a dreaded Hudak PC government. Gonna be interesting after the Lib budget is tabled in May.


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    Graham says:

    Doesn’t really mean anything as an election isn’t being held tomorrow.

    Although, it may mean the Liberals are worried enough to give in to Horwath’s list of demands so the NDP will support the budget.

    But, then again, if Horwath thinks she and the NDP can become the official opposition, she might pull the trigger and vote with the PC’s to bring Wynne down.

    But I suspect what you’re really getting at is this means the Liberals should have chosen Pupatello as leader.


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    james curran says:

    Ya butttttt…… All Tim whodat has to do is open his mouth just once…….and voila! Liberal win!


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    Steven says:

    If the numbers bear out, I can’t wait to have the same people back who gave us Walkerton, Ipperwash and outrageously lied about ( i.e. tried to hide) the monstrous deficit they ran up because of their ridiculous economic policies during the election of 2003.

    And for Randy Hillier and Doug Ford at the cabinet table.

    I hope the public teachers’ unions, especially the ETFO, wear it well too.


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      Steven says:

      P.S. And NDP voters will, once again, deliver the government to the Tories.


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        Darwin O'Connor says:

        Actually those who voted against the election reform referendum who are behind it.


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          Tiger says:

          63% of Ontario voters in 2007?


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            Darwin O'Connor says:

            The majority voted that a minority of voters can control the government. I guess that makes it legitimate. I don’t want to hear a single one of them complaining.


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    G says:

    As far as I’m aware, writ periods need to be 28 days, meaning an election cannot be legally held tomorrow.

    Therefore, what’s the poll mean? About as much as 100 ex-officio delegates did.


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    Patrick says:

    If you are the NDP, wouldn’t it make sense to wait? No point coming in second with Tories getting a majority. NDP may want to wait until they have a realistic shot at winning the election.


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    Steven says:

    WK, are you saying there will, as it turns out, be a Tory TriFecta for Toronto?


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      !o! says:

      He’s saying the polls mean absolutely nothing.


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      Fraternite says:

      He’s saying that the Liberals will make a deal with the NDP to avoid an election. I can’t believe that so many people can’t put 2 and 2 together.


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    Mike says:

    This poll is no surprise. The honeymoon is over and things are settling back to where things were prior to Dalton resigning as leader back in October. Probably the gas plant cancellations (all politically motivated) scandal is the big culprit here. But besides that, there are a number of other burning issues that have come to light in the last 2 months, including the outrageous tire tax theft that was going to hit the mining, agricultural and industrial industries unfairly and the hardest, not to mention the green energy scandals with wind turbines, ORNGE, etc.. Frankly, at the end, it wouldn’t have mattered at all who was chosen leader, and to be honest with you, Sandra will be better utilized in Ottawa as part of Justin Trudeau’s team. I will be honest and say a couple of things, first I do expect a June 2013 provincial election with the result being either an NDP or PC minority government, and secondly, no matter what, Ontario Liberals in rural Ontario are DOA for a generation or longer just like the liberals in Alberta and Saskatchewan. This means that should there be any future Ontario liberal governments, the best the Ontario Liberals can and will ever get will be a minority going forward. Ontarians are realizing that they are already paying too much for hydro, generating too much power and paying Michigan and New York to take our surplus power, and know full well that within 5 years, Ontario will have the HIGHEST ELECTRICITY PRICES in NORTH AMERICA which is helping to drive manufacturing and other industries OUT OF ONTARIO. There is one piece of good news with a potential different party in power provincially: whatever party is in power in Ontario will NOT form the next federal government as Ontario historically has always voted opposite federally and provincially. That means if the PC’s take power in Ontario, then the Harper Cons will be booted out in 2015.


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    John Wright says:

    Hubris will make the Liberals lose…if you read the actual ful poll release it is a very diagnostic sounding…it doesn’t just have the vote number but a lot more. I’ve said publicly this: the current Liberal regime is liked for its style but it is not seen to be defined or with substance. After three months at the helm a greater proportion want change than before. That’s hardly a great beginning…infact the underlying numbers look more like Kim Cambell’s than anything else. I think the Tories have a soft ten point lead because it is the same as they had at the start of the last election and last time I checked Toronto proper isn’t known for its sturdy blue hew. And the underlying numbers don’t have a whole lot of gtrowth for the PC’s at the moment but anything can happen in a campaign. It’s the NDP who likely has the greatest potential for a Minority or Majority. And they have a tough choice: get some budget sops on things like car insurance or pull the plug after the budget is brought down–which the Grits have to run on and the other two can savage, and drive the party up the centre left by pushing the Liberals to the far left and peeling off the middle from each of the soft Liberals and NDP…neither the Grits or the Tories have deamonized the NDP; the Liberals are undefined except for style over substance with the biggest movement for change we’ve seen in a decade; and the PC’s have the baggage from the last campaign and Mr. Hudak’s recent interviews have been in praise of Mike Harris’s mettle. Watch the NDP: they can leave the Liberals in for another year after they get some minor concessions and let the government have a chance to find it’s feet as a worthy opponent or they can do the deed now as spring arrives and the change in the season becomes a metaphor for their campaign. Sometimes the best people with the best hearts and intentions forget that getting along with your opponents is not what cuts it in the blood sport of politics. If government is about process that stands for everyone then they are not about defining substance that defines who they are. Folks, these numbers are bad for this incumbent minority government. The budget, as a defining document of cooperation to prop themselves up and make the House work may not be enough to sustain them on the hustings. So, we will see over the next month whether this government will find its political inner being or just be a populist group who can be swept aside easily by an electorate who wants change–a fresh brand, not a mean or hard brand–in 45 days during the spring bloom of 2013.


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    billg says:

    Never under estimate the ability of Tim Hudak to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Relax everyone, the province only spends a million dollars an hour more then it takes in and adds 10 billion a year to our debt, there’s billions still out there in your savings accounts and rrsp’s to be taxed.


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    John Wright says:

    bilig…You are missing the point and have made my point…


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    Ed Frink says:

    Kathleen Wynne is going to surprise a lot of people when she kicks Tea Party Tim’s ass in the next election.

    All she has to do is remind the new Canadian community how anti-immigrant the Conservatives are.

    Then it’s a shoo-in.

    (this is why we need more immigration and multiculturalism so that conservatives can never win an election ever again)


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      billg says:

      So, more immigration so you can win elections?
      After Boston and the Via Rail arrests that should go over well.
      Wow.


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      anu bose says:

      I think Frink is a trifle dated in his thinking. No one but no one has courted the ethnics as efficiently and as Jason Kenney for whom I carry no torch. Multiculturalism is a dead concept but it is something to which bleeding hearts and Toronto do-gooders cling.

      Having said that, immigrants or new Canadians have the same concerns as any other Canadian. STOP TREATING US AS A GROUP APART.


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    John Wright says:

    How come Hudak and not Horwath is on everyone’s hit list? He could form a minority or a majority given the right campaign dynamics–as we say, Campaigns matter…but what I’m really perturbed about on this and other postings is why no-one talks about Andrea who is, I would argue, the bigger threat to the Grits and could do the same–a minority or a majority. If the Grits remain as undefined as they are, she will bring fresh change to two old parties…that’s the potential here…and the absence of this debate or fear and focusing on the Hudak obvious is, well, interestingly naive…


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    David says:

    The reason they don’t talk about Andrea is that they don’t want to give her any air. Best way to keep a fire from spreading is to deprive it of oxygen. Fear of a Horwath led NDP is alive and well. I was surprised to see NDP’s Gilles Bisson on Sun Media yesterday. Watch to get a sense of how focused they are and on message. The NDP is talking tough. This is not that old wacked out NDP that everyone used to kick around.
    http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/featured/prime-time/867432237001/will-the-ndp-support-ontariorsquos-budget/2325452996001


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      Warren says:

      I totally agree. And it’s why (now that I am no longer associated with OLP) I think they are most likely to win.


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    Cath says:

    If the NDP win big in B.C., could that also not give Horwath a big lift? Timing, as you always say is everything. There’s something else at play though that you talked about during the OLP leadership and that is how close Wynne was to the NDP, where as Sandra P. was not. I think you’ll see many who would normally vote for the Liberals who are ticked with Wynne to go to their next best left option…..Horwath. Wynne knows it.
    Also, those PC who were not big on Hudak would have easily voted for Sandra P. but NOT Wynne for the same reason – if you want left, go with the real deal.
    Want to hear something even nuttier.


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      Michael says:

      If you can’t convince your own party to vote for you, what chance do you have of convincing the general public?


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        Cath says:

        As it’s going to turn out I think she would have had a better chance than Wynne.


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    Cath says:

    oops sorry. Didn’t finish my thought. Come to think of it I have nothing nuttier that I can share.
    As you were.


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    Joey Rapaport says:

    At least you folks have an election coming up, Manitobans are taking it hard from the NDP, PST increase/gas taxes/user fees, etc… all with massive deficits with no end in sight!

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