Musings —05.15.2013 08:01 AM
—140 character Ontario politics prediction
After what happened to BC NDP, the chances of a Spring election are somewhere between slim and none.
Musings —05.15.2013 08:01 AM
—After what happened to BC NDP, the chances of a Spring election are somewhere between slim and none.
Are you predicting that this prediction will also be wrong?
Ha!
It will most certianly scare the Ontario NDP. But Ontario is a different animal.
Last night on Sun News, Brian Lilley mentioned he had conversations with BC Liberal party insiders wh said their internal polling was showing an expanded Liberal majority since the campaign began but didn’t want to release that information publicly.
I’m thinking the Wynne Liberals internal polling is showing them in serious trouble. Why else would they pass an NDP budget? Why else would she go on TV Ontario last night and kinda, sorta say sorry for the power plant fiasco? Not for cancelling them costing taxpayers at least $585 million to save a few Liberal seats mind you, but for selecting the original locations.
Here’s a thought: in uncertain times (and we live in uncertainty now), voters lean to “the devil they know’ so I’m with WK on this.
Generally I would agree, if McGuinty was still Premier. BUT, McGuinty isn’t in power anymore.
Wynne is very much in the “devil you don’t” side of the ledger. Sure, people know her as a cabinet minister, but not as a leader. Those are two very different positions.
From what she has shown so far, people don’t seem to impressed.
You’re right Graham. She said she’s sorry for the gas plant fiasco. Feel better?
Or maybe this is the budget Wynne would have passed in any case. She has talked about social justice, she has broached the subject of taxes to pay for transit. She has always been seen as being on the left of the Liberal Party. She is not your father’s premier. 😉
Doubt it.
Wynne was dead set against the 15% reduction in auto insurance rates when Horwath first demanded it.
Suddenly that, and several specific NDP demands show up in the budget?
Does this mean that lots of people have joined me in lying to pollsters for fun and profit?
Yes!
To many polling companies are trying to FORM public opinion instead of simply reporting public opinion.
Word.
I think that Horwath and her party may have been counting on using a BC NDP win to her advantage. Now they can’t. So, I tend to agree that Horwath is likely more inclined to support the Wynne budget making the WynneWath party standing in governance of the province. What do you get when you mix orange and red? Some dull muted pink colour just like the new logo?
Biggest Loser in my opinion though is Thomas Mulcair. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
Got to go stock up on long weekend wine.
Have a good one WK!
Both Conservatives and Ontario Libs can take heart in that in both Alberta and BC the reversal of the poll predictions both favoured the governing parties.
I made a lot of signs, bundled a lot of leaflets, swept the floor a bunch of times, telephoned many, chatted with neighbours …and we got the provincial vote participation way up from 51% to 52%.
By the way, a little after 5 pm yesterday I surfed a bit and stopped at Suntv. I watched about 20 minutes. It sure looked like campaigning on election day to me, attack campaigning. I checked back a few minutes befroe the polls closed, and Suntv had on 2 more talking heads continuing the attack ad as news coverage stuff.
Maybe Elections BC should have a look at this kind of thing. If tthey don’t, it will certainly happen in coming election days.
One thing is for sure. The ONtario NDP has blown whatever shot they might have had at advancing their position. Propping up Wynne is going to make Andrea Bob Rae circa 1986 and no a majority a few years later is not gonna happen. The ONDP have blown it.
For the situation to be replicated in Ontario you need this:
1. An overconfident front runner: I can see both Tim Hudak & Andrea Horwath getting cocky. Less so Andrea now. But Timmy? Yeah.
2. An overconfident partisan electorate: This is where the LPO hopes Sun TV stays on the air. For PCPO partisans? Likely. For NDP? Less so.
3. Fear of the past: Rae Days? Long in the tooth. Timmy’s Chainsaw Crew? Just watch what’s coming out of Ottawa for a reminder.
I humbly suggest that Tim Hudak has more to fear from this than Andrea Horwath. However, Tim Hudak might be enough to scare Ontario voters into another Liberal minority or majority. There is no good news here for Andrea Horwath.
Scenario A:- Horwath supports Wynne Budget with NDP demands. Hudak goes ballistic. Ontarians love the Budget. Next Budget, Wynne makes it unpalatable for Horwath. No confidence vote and election. And the winner is ???????
Scenario B:- Horwath votes no confidence notwithstanding the 15% auto insurance candy. Election and a Hudak minority government that faces early no confidence vote. Next election ???????
Scenario C:- ?????????