05.15.2013 11:35 AM

Canada Live, May 15: why guys like me got BC (and other political stuff) so wrong

24 Comments


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    Obdurate says:

    Sooooo, Warren… should we conclude that the national polling is slightly whackadoo too?


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      Warren says:

      That’s what May 2011 suggests. No one saw the Orange Crush before the writ, did they?


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        Obdurate says:

        So when did les quebecois suddenly have their conversion and drank Jack’s Orange Crush koolaid… after they saw and heard him speak, or was it always there, lurking, camouflaged until May 4th? How can something so big not have been spotted? I can still see Duceppe shocked at the results, almost speechless!

        As for the B.C. election results, they will be analyzed post-mortem to the nth degree by the pollsters and they will/must provide their answers. If they don’t or can’t, then open polling is worthless. I wonder where this leaves internal polling done by the political parties.

        Warren, are you suspicious about the current national polling showing a decline of popularity for the Conservatives… are today’s polls misleading and cannot be projected to 2015? Can polling predict trends and/or results?


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          Elisabeth Lindsay says:

          Why does anybody pay ANY attention to these pollsters. By my count, they have got it wrong five out of five times. Manitoba, Quebec, Federal, Alberta, and now B.C. A 5 for 5 fail!


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    deb s says:

    I think the problem is the low voter turnout. I mean the pollsters take samples of folks who are supposedly committed to voting…but who knows, perhaps the people answering their phone have no intention of showing up. I guess the pollsters should start taking a bigger note of the silent majority to fix their margin of error:P How to tap into that …who knows, as when asked most people probably say they are voting and then just dont bother. I wonder if the pollsters need to highlight how many folks say, not voting, not interested in politics:P


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    deb s says:

    and the other idea floating about…is christy clarke cheated, and I soo wish that was the case and she gets caught. We can dream:P


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      Michael S says:

      You really wish that? That speaks very sadly.


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        Cath says:

        yes is does. Grasping.


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          deb s says:

          yet if I suggested the ndp cheated cath, you would nod and wholeheartedly agree, and probably start braying about fastcat bs or economic ruin:P you are a lib fan and therefore have no problem with the results;P


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            Cath says:

            seriously deb? The ndp just ran a bad campaign. No cheating would have helped that.
            You don’t know squat about me and my political leanings and you obviously haven’t been following this forum very much because you’d know that you’re wrong in your assumptions.


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        deb s says:

        I was being a bit facetious…but the people suggesting it might be more paranoid, not sure:P I wouldnt put past anything with the libs, the campbell crew were up to their ears in corruption and Christy may not be quite as tainted but her ex-husband was tied to the bc rail scandal. corporate interests dont have much in the way of conscience, and they seem to rule most parts of canada:P


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          Terry says:

          I care not for the quality of your comments but, please, keep the emoticons coming!!


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            Cath says:

            still smacks of desperation deb. Nice try though.


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    Jon Evan says:

    I think warren would agree. Fear always wins over abstract words of hope and change. Most of us here in BC remember well the NDP days when BC was a have not province and people had to move to Alberta. How could we elect the NDP again! We are stupid but not that stupid. But yesterday ends the days of “positive” campaigning! Junior Trudeau should learn fast!!


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      Al in Cranbrook says:

      I lived in Lloydminster for 13 years…Les, you pretty much took the words right out of my mouth! Never did figure out what all the todo was about over “slough sharks”, except that they can swallow a spoon and hook damn near the same size they are, and usually will! Even tried ice fishing for perch in -20 C…once! Yeah, that’s my idea of FUN alrighty!!! And any pond bigger than half an acre generally became a resort development!

      Ok, so we’re spoiled pretty much rotten here in BC…but not to fret, we’ll get over it! 🙂


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        Robert Jago says:

        Screw the weather (and the fishing), it’s the real estate that keeps is BCers back east. I’ve got a 3 bedroom palace in the best part of Montreal for the price of a downtown Vancouver parking spot.


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    Houland Wolfe says:

    In what way are the B.C. New Democrats like the Maple Leafs? The NDP behaved just like the Maple Leafs in game 7. They thought they were assuredly in the lead and sat back and played nice. The BC Liberals threw all their attack ads at them and it worked. The NDP which actually had good stuff to throw back, turned the other cheek and was rewarded with an elbow to the nose. Let the bleeding begin.


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    Al in Cranbrook says:

    Couple of points (I agree with yours, too)…

    1) All due credit to her, Clarke made Dix, in comparison, look like a stick in the mud. She was positive and very upbeat, radiating personality, be that what it may. He looked and sounded like he’d rather be somewhere else, and it was all he could do to force a smile for the camera.

    2) The one person she went out of her way to thank last night was Brad Bennett, son of former premier Bill Bennett, and grandson of WAC. That’s 31 one years total of being up to one’s butt in BC politics. I doubt very few understand the game out here any better than might he.

    3) BC’s leftwing nature is highly overrated. Small C conservatism has dominated here since pretty forever. I count about 9 and 3 years of interrupted rule since 1952. Federally, due in large part to alienation, people turned to the NDP to lodge their protest vote with Ottawa. However, when Preston Manning came along, the NDP got thoroughly trashed as the province went heavily Reform…and have remained in that fold, more or less, ever since. The only places where the NDP consistently win is downtown Vancouver and the Island, primarily around Victoria…where there also happens to be a great many public sector union members. You can see this yet again on the post election political map today.

    4) You are right about the Harper connection…myself included, many can still remember as a pro-Liberal guest commentator on CTV pretty much crapping all over the CPC back in the day. A lot of die hard Conservatives were not terribly pleased to see her win the leadership of the BC Libs. Getting that image behind her had to be paramount if she hoped to lead a coalition against the NDP.


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    Dotty says:

    Vancouver – Point Grey riding voters must feel “STUPID” now! Clark is gonna pizz on them after a by-election.


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    MCBellecourt says:

    Losing her own riding to NDPer David Eby didn’t help, either. There will be a byelection needed somewhere.


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    GPAlta says:

    But you had it right from the beginning:
    http://warrenkinsella.com/2010/11/bc-lib-leadership/


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    Paul Synnott says:

    You mention Don Guy, Laura Miller, Ben Chin often enough, you would think it was the “McGuinty Liberals” alone who won this race. Even Darrel Bricker and others had the grace to congratulate Nick Kouvalis and Dimitri Pantazopoulos for their role.


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      Warren says:

      I like Dimitri. And if you want grace, go elsewhere.

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