Musings —05.14.2013 11:18 PM
—Mea maxima culpa
I, of all people, should know not to trust pollsters. If BC CTV is right (they just called it for the BC Libs), man oh man did I get it wrong! My sincere, abject apologies.
(If CTV is right, that is!)
Just goes to show that the economy is ALWAYS the issue.
Agreed, it usually is. Dix and his people (now with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight) got way too carried away with the anti-pipeline thing.
Warren, you didn’t get it wrong. What you did is prove without a doubt is that negative advertising (versus Hope and Fucking Change and Unicorns) works. And, it’s necessary in this time of soundbites and vacuousness.
Even if the NDP pull this out, I think this basically says polling is done as a science. This is just stunning.
The problem isn’t polling as science. The problem is polling in Canada as science when the electoral system is ridings-based and the sample sizes in ridings aren’t statistically significant.
You’re right. This is the biggest political upset of my lifetime. The late polls were moving the other way (i.e., they had the NDP increasing its lead), which just amplifies the magnitude of the upset.
Pollsters get burnt again.
Just spoke with two smart political analysts (mom & dad). They insisted that enough people have long memories and just weren’t prepared to put their trust in Dix or the NDP again.
Quebec, Alberta, BC……Electorate:3…….Pundits and Pollsters:0
A lot of 10 second BC Liberals tonight…..
High Point……BC Conservative Leader John Cummins defeated and his sorry band wiped off the electoral map……
Cummins was trounced. Third place.
You realize the BC Liberals are actually a mix of Liberals AND Conservatives right?
As a BC resident, I am fully aware of the relationship between the BC Liberals and the federal Conservatives and fed. Liberals……but I have to say that the BC Conservatives are that brand of Conservative I hate the most.
Fed BC Conservatives, indeed the BC Harper machine, overwhelmingly supported the BC Liberals, so as to avoid vote spliitting that would have elected the NDP by default, not to mention prolonging that tool John Cummins political career.
Well I’m feeling a little dejected. I didn’t figure the BC Libs deserved a win, but it sure looks like how it’s shaping up. At least some interesting things are happing regarding the Greens. And I am hoping Christy Clark loses her seat. She drives me nuts.
yeah Weaver winning is the one bright spot and the other will be when Dave Eby kicks her out of pt grey
You were right. Attack ads work. Boy do they work.
Yeah, ’cause you know, when a doctor says “You should cut down on salts.”, you say “Nonsense.”
When your IT tech says don’t open that attachment, you do.
When your vet says, you’re feeding too much you say, “He’s not overweight.”
And when a trench lineman says, “Attack ads work.” You say, “Nonsense, Canada is different now!”
Unicorns are fictional. There is no Mickey Mouse. Projected feelings are false. Conflict isn’t passe, it’s evolution.
Cheers,
lance
I don’t understand how the pollsters can be so, so, wrong. Makes me question the validity of all polls. What exactly is going on here, and why does it seem like these polls are getting more and more inaccurate? Is this just a couple flukes in a row, or do we have a strong trend here. Very interesting…
Reverse Psychology?
“a couple flukes in a row” Jimmy? How about FIVE fails in a row for the pollsters, and for the lazy journalists and pundits that still believed them.
Five fails are: Manitoba, Quebec, Federal (didn`t see the Orange Crush coming) Alberta (Daniel Smith was going to sweep Alison Redford away) and now B.C.
Can anybody remember when the pollsters, pundits or journalists got it right?
Went to vote about 7:00, could hardly find a place to park.
Said to my wife, two reasons for high turnout: People want change and/or people are afraid.
There’s enough long memories out there who haven’t forgot how the last NDP government savaged this province.
Also said to my wife, this isn’t going to turn out the way everyone’s expecting…I can feel it.
No big fan of the BC Libs…but I’m relieved, if not ecstatic, that the NDP got whacked!
Two words:
Campaigns matter.
Does Wynne here in Ontario look at this and tell Horwath to shove all her new conditions for budget support up her butt?
aarrhhhhgghhfghhhg fuckiititiitttt:(
I hate that you were spot on…I hate that people dont vote…and I hate that attack ads should have been used…HST, BC rail, her general idiocy…argghhhh this province is tragic!
Dang. You beat me to it.
Welcome to the Republic Of Bananada.
whats worse is that last three times I thought the ndp would win, I guess im the true idiot:P
Can we please never hear the name Eric Grenier after tonight again? Please?
I don’t think he’s got a single prediction right in his entire career.
His seat projections are down right hilarious.
OR maybe BC was voting Liberal because of the new federal Liberal leader. Seems Liberals got out the vote and the NDP and Greens stayed home or split their vote. Red Tory voted Liberal.
The BC Liberals have zero, I repeat ZERO connection to the federal Liberals.
The BC Liberals are actually more like the federal Conservatives.
People voting Liberal provincially tend to vote Conservative federally.
The BC NDP are strongly in line with the federal NDP.
Mulcair campaigned with and for Dix. He must be shitting bricks this morning.
Red Tories like Stock Day, eh?
Roots
Smug progressives and leftists such as Warren Kinsella proclaimed ” a victory for Dix” and that the NDP would handily win BC. Leaving aside for a moment the reasons why this election indicates that we are in a post-polling paradigm, Kinsella’s condescending article Tuesday illustrates their profound historical illiteracy:
For one, Vander Zalm got the political bug during Trudeaumania and ran as a federal Liberal in ’68 in Surrey (he lost by 5,000 votes) – one might say he was the federal Liberal’s Frankenstein gift to us. Two, Kinsella can make fun of BC and/or Western politics all he likes, we never had anyone like Duplessis – you know, that Vichyesuque, clerical fascist dude who opposed Canadian involvement in World War II – our conscience is relatively clear out here. Three, I note that the so-called have not provinces are quite happy to accept the income streams from British Columbia and the rest of the West – you curse the cow but enjoy the butter? Four, I note Kinsella is doing a thing on income inequality; historically, out here in the West, King figured we didn’t need a New Deal like Mr. Roosevelt gave to the American West. We twisted in the wind for a whole decade with all the misery, suicides, and the rest – eventually, Bennett did open up the province like Roosevelt.
Then, whenever we got some prosperity, the powers-that-be would bring in some NEP or other scam and do their damnedest to impoverish again. The oppressive mentality of Central Canada is the “root cause” of why Westerners are as a rule tough, hard-working, stick-to-their-guns types who don’t trust smooth talking prep school boys from the East – or unalloyed socialists wherever they hail from them.
I’m encouraged to see Kinsella and the Left on this tack: the history game is one the NDP and federal Liberals just can’t win – the aforementioned Duplessis (read the book Young Trudeau), Castro and Co. the Soviets, Mao etc, etc. The deeply and profoundly rotten roots of these parties are our greatest strength. Call it societal post traumatic stress syndrome. You tried to break us, destroy us time and time again but we endured. Kinsella, Trudeau: we are coming for you. And don’t believe those polls.
As a resident of Chilliwack BC….
First point… Casper Milquetoast will not work as a “leader” if he ever did.
2nd point, deferring from negative campaigning (ie. telling the truth) is stupid, particularly in this case
3rd point, telephone polling no longer works — get used to it.
I am disgusted with the result.
Polling in general no longer works.
Good on you for taking it on the chin
Some theories about what went wrong for the Dippers:
1. I received multiple NDP robocalls. And in their robocalls, all the NDP wanted to talk about was pipelines, pipelines and more pipelines. The NDP spent way too much time hoovering to environmentalists and union members, and pretty much ignoring everything and everyone else. What they forgot was that they already had the enviros and the union people in the bag. They forgot that elections are won in the centre among the non-converted.
2. Dix’s Kinder Morgan thing was a big mistake. It was unnecessary, and, as it turns out, too clever by half. He didn’t need to do it, and reinforced the view that he’s congenitally anti-business and anti-resource extraction industry. Which is exactly what the BC Liberals were saying about him. It also completely contradicted all of the image-managing Dix’s people had been doing up until that point, wherein they tried to make him out to be Mr. Moderate and Mr. Consensus-Builder etc.
3. It’s possible the polls just didn’t do a good enough job weighting for who votes versus who doesn’t vote. The kind of people who vote for the BC Liberals are the kind of people who vote: older people, professionals (big time), business people (big time), etc. The kind of people who vote NDP, other than the core fanatics, not so much: students, young people, poor people.
4. A lot of people in other provinces forget this, and apparently the BC NDP did too: a LOT of people in BC depend for the livelihoods either directly or indirectly on resource extraction industries. And that includes Vancouver — who do you think all those lawyers, accountants, geologists, etc. in downtown Vancouver work for? Adrian Dix didn’t have a single nice thing to say about these industries, and again, his Kinder Morgan announcement only reinforced that view. A lot of people who work in extractive industries (like mining) would crawl over broken glass to vote against the NDP, given their hostility to mining, pipelines, oil & gas extraction, etc.
Of course I can say this now . . . I was certain the NDP was going to win 🙂
So the next question is, why? Four things come to mind:
– Voter suppression through engendering disgust in the process.
– Apathy due to what turned out to be very deceptive polling numbers.
– Effective negative characterization of the NDP by Clark’s liberals early in the campaign.
– A very clear strategy on the part of the Liberals focusing on resource development.
How the NDP failed:
– Failed to redefine itself in the face of Liberal onslaught.
– Failed to motivate their people to get out and vote.
– (Likely) failed to get out the youth vote.
The Liberals didn’t deserve to win, but the other option was simply not an option for many people here in BC.
BC is like Quebec that way — if you want a non-left wing government, you only have one realistic choice. In Quebec, if you want a non-separatist government, you only have one realistic choice. It bites, but that’s the way it is.
Well, except the NDP came out with attack ads in the final days after not having done so for most of the campaign, and all of a sudden their fortunes sank. Are we sure that it wasn’t the attack ads hurting their brand for having put them out?
Ha! Clark actually lost her own seat! http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/ed/GE-2013-05-14_Vancouver-Point%20Grey.html
” I just punch back and I’ve never lost an election because an attack unanswered is an attack believed.” Alan Simpson former U. Senator…Dix did not answer the attack ads and thus the negative ads were very very effective as painting him weak on the economy.
So……….
What Liberal is going to be the sacrificial lamb to give up their seat for Clark to run in a by-election??
This kind of thing can backfire. It did for the Ontario PC’s when after leader John Tory lost in the general election in 2007, they picked a very safe PC seat, had the MPP resign her seat and ran Tory in the by-election.
The people in the riding weren’t too happy about that and elected a Liberal instead. It went back to the PC in 2011.
Yeah, but that was because the Ontario PCs actually wanted Tory gone. So a whole bunch of Tories voted Liberal or stayed home.
Clark, say what you will, actually won her election. So while she’d take a hit, she wouldn’t blow a 10,000 vote margin the way Tory did.