07.19.2013 10:18 AM

Conjunctive, disjunctive

Ekos here.

I don’t really believe the fed Grits are pulling down the Ontario Libs, or vice-versa. There’s a bit of brand overlap, but not enough to effect big shifts.

I believe in the alternation theory: when the federal party is ascendant, the provincial party generally isn’t.

There are three things possibly at work, here. One, polls aren’t so accurate anymore. Two, it’s Summer – folks are disengaged. Three, what was once new (Trudeau, Wynne) isn’t so new anymore.

Your take?


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    Lorne says:

    Don’t get the complete article on iPolitics, but I did post this on the previous Hufpo topic thread which should have been on this thread and it includes the federal Liberal polling info.

    Huffpo — Poll Suggest Justin Trudeau’s Honeymoon May Be Wearing Off

    “The Liberals appear to have taken their biggest hit in Ontario and Quebec, with drops of nine and 11 points, respectively.”


    So it now appears there is a downward momentum in Justin’s polling even though Liberals are still slightly ahead of the Cons. Perhaps it’s the “Wynne Backlash” coming out of Ontario and a resurgence of the BQ in Quebec.

    The situation is “fluid” and perhaps unsustainable for the Liberals once things get serious during an election campaign when the big guns come out firing.

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    Bruce A says:

    Methinks that it’s going to be a three way race for the foreseeable future, federally and provincially. I just don’t see anyone breaking away from the pack for the next year. I don’t think the Liberals have done a good job of convincing NDP supporters or swing voters that they’re back federally or have distanced themselves from the McGuinty Years.

    Besides, polls aren’t what they used to be and neither are voters.

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      Lorne says:

      Let’s be honest! The Liberal party is only surviving on Justin’s fumes! Justin is a one-man show and there aren’t many other Liberals on the federal scene who shine as brightly as he does.

      As I’ve said before, most of the Liberal caucus is well past it’s best before date and must be replaced or camouflaged. They don’t boost Justin’s image; they drag it down, and that’s the grim reality.

      Justin’s current popularity is a mile wide and an inch deep. It looks good now, but it’s politically unstable, unless Trudeau can assemble a legitimate team of new young candidates in whom Canadians can trust to run the country. Nobody wants the old dog Liberal MPs slithering back into power on Justin’s coattails. That can’t happen because Harper and Mulcair will attack this Liberal vulnerability. That’s the challenge for Liberals everywhere.

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    VC says:

    I don’t think polls were ever really accurate. But, I think there is merit to the alternation hypothesis, for Ontario, anyways.

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      Greg from Calgary says:

      I agree. Seeing how polls have turned out lately in BC and AB elections I don’t think this one has any merit. I do feel though there is an overall weariness with the cons and unless they get their mojo back they are in danger of moving to Stornoway.

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    Houland Wolfe says:

    Who’d have thunk that a minority Liberal-NDP government would be possible both in Ontario and federally. That could be a precursor to more formal cooperation.

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    Alex says:

    A little bit of Option A, and a little bit from Option B. It’s July, the time of year when hardly anybody pays attention to politics. After several elections filled with polling disasters, meanwhile, polls cannot be taken that seriously at the best of times.

    My view is that this poll gives you as much insight into federal politics as flipping a coin. (I take that back, polls are potentially worse, as one could argue that their recent accuracy rate has been a lot less than 50 per cent).

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    Ronald O'Dowd says:


    Voters can support change they believe in or they can run as fast as they can from the prospect of change that fills them with impending dread. I know which way this is likely to break in Ottawa and Toronto. Nothing will change that once the voting middle has identified its electoral course.

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    David says:

    I know! Democracy in Ontario is flawed: MacKenzie King has a stranglehold on power and it goes on to St. Laurent, Pearson, and Trudeau. Meanwhile the Tories lead Ontario for over 40 years. Everything’s topsy-turvy! Leaving a guy like you working for Sun News.

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    The Doctor says:

    I agree with that one columnist in the Globe — it might have been Jeffrey Simpson — who said that eventually (but probably better sooner than later), the Liberals under JT need a compelling economic narrative. And they need some visible economic cred via some front benchers who project that sort of gravitas. It’s cliched and worn, but still true that absent extraordinary events, people tend to vote according to their pocketbooks.

    So far, I don’t really hear a compelling alternative economic narrative coming out of JT’s mouth. Maybe that’s fine for a while, but eventually he has to pick a door there.

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