11.26.2013 08:34 AM

By-election Olympics: Trudeau gets gold and silver; Harper and Mulcair get bronze

Not sure what I mean? Take a look at this chart that I found over at Maclean’s:

That chart shows, rather dramatically, that Trudeau’s Liberals gained vote everywhere. Everyone else lost vote. And, in Brandon-Souris, of course, my friend Rolf Dinsdale wiped out the 55-point advantage the Cons had in 2011 – and came within less than 400 votes of making history.  Rolf should be proud of himself; I know I’m proud of him.

The Reformatories will say that by-elections don’t ever go well for governments, that the status quo (two Liberal seats, two Conservative seats) is fine by them, blah blah blah. But the reality is this: they came within a whisker of losing a seat they’ve held for most of the last Century. And their share of the vote has plummeted across the board.

Mulcair will also make the status quo argument, and will say that his candidate did very well in a Liberal stronghold (which is one of the reasons why I opposed Freeland, and the way in which she came to be the Liberal candidate). But the reality for is this: Jack Layton he is not. The Orange crush? It may be orange, but it ain’t crushing anyone.

Trudeau won big, last night. He won the gold and the silver. The Liberal Party of Canada, as some of us have been saying for a long time, is back.


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    Cow says:

    And even Mulcair’s claims in Toronto Centre are nonsense. Bob Rae won with an 11-point margin in 2013; Freeland won with a 13-point margin. The Tory collapse in TC benefited both the Libs and NDP, sure, but even with a candidate like *Freeland* the Libs ended up doing better.

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      Warren says:

      NDP vote in Toronto centre up by seven points. I don’t know what you’re talking about. They did better in 2013 than they did in 2011.

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        Matt says:

        Has there been any breakdown of the votes by polling station in Toronto Centre? IIRC the riding will be split up next election. If the NDP candidate did well in the southern part, typically the lower income area of T-C that has places like Regent Park, does she become the NDP candidate in there in 2015? Does the riding split help the CPC as the northern areas of T-C that have Rosedale and Yorkville typically vote CPC

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        Bluegreenblogger says:

        Yeah, but the Greens in TC have gone from well organised to moribund. This is one of the ridings where the Greens are eating from the same plate as the Dippers, so the Dippers benefit disproportionately. Add an honest to goodness GOTV, and it is not surprising that more past Green supporters voted for the NDP than ever voted for the Greens, lol.

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        Herman Thind says:

        I think what Cow is referring to is that the LPC increased it’s lead over the NDP in TorCen. Could the other NDP votes have come at the expense of the Cons? There was a lot of talk of Cons strategically voting to help McCuaig? Those votes certainly didn’t come from the LPC. Certainly the low voter turnout of a bye-election leaves all these comments as mere speculation.

        Love your assessment, however. And Rolf is amazing! Can’t wait to see him in Ottawa in 2015. We have significantly grown our numbers and IDed vote in that riding, and his almost-breakthrough is a shot across Harper’s bow. Harper now has to try to consolidate his base, rather than shipping his MPs from “safe” seats all across Canada to target LPC ridings. I fully expect Harper to adopt a “scorched earth” campaign, and at the same time make broad appeals to his so-called “base” on the Prairies. That might mean policy overtures, but mostly empty rhetoric, as we’ve seen over the years.

        Great post!

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          Matt says:

          With the stuff the CPC have on Freeland, I think they are very happy she won. They can use it to not only attack her, but also to attack Mr. Trudeau for making her his economic advisor.

          Thats one problem with selecting former journalists to run for your party. They have years worth of on the record comments opponents can hit them with.

          And of course, Harper has had issues with two other former journalists.

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            StephenJ says:

            Freeland = Iggy déja vu all over again? {{{SHUDDER}}}

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          Pcase says:

          This is exactly the opposite of what happened. THe NDP grew their vote significantly in the south of the riding drawing a larger portion of the progressive vote. LPC won by large margins north of Bloor where there is normally 20-25% of the vote goes Conservative. The Conservative vote was 8% this time around. Trudeau tack to right, Keystone for example, seem to have drawn what typically would be Conservative support in the north.

          Also note, there only two significant voter ID/GOTV campaigns run in the riding, both of which grew there support while Greens and Cons collapsed.

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      Matt says:

      Sure she won with a bigger percentage of the vote, but she got 8,000 or 9,000 fewer votes than Rae.Not unexpected as by election turnout is typically smaller compared to general elections.

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    pc says:

    Now imagine if just a handful of those voters, who insist on casting their conscience into the ballot box, had voted strategically in Brandon-Souris, their political antithesis wouldn’t be heading to Ottawa today.

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      SherryBellamy says:

      I agree. We need to start thing both strategically and pragmatically.

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      smelter rat says:

      A LOT of them did. Not quite enough though.

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    JamesM. says:

    I just came here from the CBC political pages and reading their analyisis of the Liberal surge. Man are the PMO staffers out in force this morning with a load of crap.

    One person brought up a good point to, in that if Brandon-Souris is any indication all those seats the CPC won in 2011 by slim margins are now in danger of shifting elsewhere.

    I was astonished at the vitriol and overwhelming posts by the CPC posters, the boys in short pants must have sat up late last night to get the comments out today from their party faithful.

    Provencher was won in 2011 with a 70% vote win, and this time they came in around 53% in what should have been a walk in the park for them.

    Interesting times ahead.

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      Matt says:

      1) The CPC got 58.1% in Provancher last night, not 53% compared to 29.9% for the Liberals.

      Since when is a 28 point victory not a cake walk? It was the only riding where the winner took over 50% of the vote.

      2) Turnout was 33.7% last night. Turnout for yhe general election in 2011 for Provancher was right around 64%. Granted the old sayin “The world is run by those who show up” is true, but you do need to be careful comparing by election results with half the voter turnout to general elections.

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    Matt says:

    Is the CPC drop not largely due to one riding, Brandon-Souris?

    And can media please stop asking Lorne Bozinoff at Forum to do polls for them.

    His final poll had Libs at 60%, CPC at 30%.

    There was also a story were one Liberal supporter received calls to participate in ALL 6 polls Forum did, and the Provincial PC leaders mom got called for 3 or 4 of them.

    Random participant selection indeed.

    Also Warren, how much do you think the Provincial NDP raising the sales tax after promising not to hurt thr federal NDP last night? Did it push the anti Harper vote from the Dippers to the Libs?

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    smelter rat says:

    My on the ground observations about Brandon-Souris:
    – Senate Scandal…overall I’d give it a “meh”. I didn’t hear much about it at the door.
    -CPC smears and dirty campaigning…a big factor that hurt them in Brandon, not so much in the rural area
    -CPC sketchy nomination process… a LOT of Con supporters sat on their hands this time around, perhaps as many as 10,000 of them
    – Trudeau factor…I’d call it a wash, as many people dislike him and like him out here. Actually many people dislike PET more than JT
    – Dinsdale name…big plus factor with the older crowd
    – NDP collapse…MANY traditional Dipper voters voted Liberal this time…ABC. Not sure that will happen again in 2015
    – Despite having virtually no infrastructure in place as recently as August, Rolf did a hell of a job with almost no budget and a team that was thrown together at the last moment. He worked extremely hard and deserves a lot of credit for running a clean campaign.
    I haven’t seen poll by poll results yet, but I’m guessing the rural/urban split hurt Rolf.

    This was one time only chance to take out the Cons. 2015 results will see a return to more traditional voting patterns. I can’t see this seat going anything other than blue in the foreseeable future, but maybe that’s just because I’m pretty depressed today.

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      Eugene says:

      My concern is the PM’s intervention with only one letter late in the election in Brandon-Souris helped turn a 30% advantage for Dinsdale into a Conservative victory.

      Trudeau visited Brandon-Souris three times, which he won’t be able to do for all 338 riding in the 2015 general election — maybe in Quebec where there will be a big dog fight, but not elsewhere.

      My concern is also that vote splitting between the LPC and NDP will yield the CPC many victories in 2015. Strategic voting maybe?

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        Lance says:

        “……..helped turn a 30% advantage for Dinsdale into a Conservative victory.”

        Don’t you think that Forum should bear some of the responsibility for that so-called “advantage” in the first place?

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          smelter rat says:

          No kidding. There was never a 30 point advantage. nice attempt at spin though.

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    Matt says:

    Although I could quibble with the order of your list, I’d say it’s fairly accurate.

    Although as Istated earlier there mave have been som Dipper anger at the Manitoba government for raising the sales tax after they promised they wouldn’t.

    The provincial NDP though seperate from their federal cousins, have the closest ties of all of the parties.

    That might have pushed a good chunk of the anti Harper support to the Libs.

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    Paul says:

    I know its early but will Rolf run again… Liberals should make sure they keep him in the fold…

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    Sean says:

    In the Olympics analogy, Harper would be banned for PEDs

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    Vankleek Hill says:

    They hand out medals at the Olympics. You win seats in elections.

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      Lance says:


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      MoeL says:

      Agree, and the federal Olympics are in two years. Now’s the time to work on your game.

      In my opinion, the #1 issue in the next election will be SH. The party that is seen as most likely to get him out of office will do quite well. Today, I think that’s the LPC. In the last year, we’ve had six by-elections. In the four where the CPC was a factor, the LPC got 30%-50% of the vote while the NDP support ranged from 8% to 19%.

      The CPC spokesperson on CTV last night said that she thought that in TO, the NPD ran the best campaign and had the most electable candidate. Her point though was that the problem they had was that Perry Mason insisted on doing most of the talking for her. Sort of reiterates WK’s point on angry Tom. Maybe the LPC war room should have a standing order in 2015… if Mulcair is in town, keep quiet and let him have all the airtime possible.

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        Ottawa Civil Servant says:

        Agree and disagree.

        Give TM the rope and he’ll hang himself. Then gain, give JT a microphone, and he’ll do the same.

        As for the percentages, this has to be the most simplistic analysis I’ve ever seen. Even at the individual riding level, returns are analysed on a poll-by-poll basis, they are most certainly not lumped together with other ridings, facing completely different variables, aacross different timelines, then expanded to a national trend. And until we get a presidency or proportional representation, it is a waste of time.

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        ChristineK says:

        What do you think will be the perception of Canadians in the ROC (not Quebec) to two of the party leaders coming from Quebec? Will they be rejected because they are from Quebec?

        If you recall, in one of the Conservative recent attack videos, they pointed out that Trudeau was in effect a French Quebec supremacist. I suspect they will continue this lowly desperate attack against Justin and by extension to Mulcair in the general election. Your thoughts.

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          Ottawa Civil Servant says:

          It is not lowly or desperate. “Swift-boating” like what was done to Kerry in the U.S. was lowly. “Guns in the streets” was lowly. Making fun of Chretien’s face was lowly.

          Quoting Harper for his “Alberta Firewall” comments 20 or 30 years ago was fair. Quoting JT for claiming he would endorse seperation under a set of undisclosed circumstances, and that PMs are better when from Québec, that’s just evidence. And we all want an evidenc-based government, right?

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            Stewart McD says:

            So the choice Canadians will be making in October 2015 is between two leaders from Quebec and one from Alberta to lead the nation domestically and internationally.

            We know that Harper has proven himself for better or for worse, but what would Canada look like with a PM Justin or PM Mulcair? Good or impossible? Just asking.

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            Ottawa Civil Servant says:

            To Stewart McD, below, can Canada’s reputation withstand being represented by TWO Justins (Beiber and Trudeau?). The mind reels at the thought. Think of all the disappointed teens when they hear Justin is coming to town for a “Ladies’ Night” and JT shows up.

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    Al in Cranbrook says:

    I can’t get myself worked up about bi-elections. IMHO, vote in that Manitoba riding was much more a reflection of constituency stuff than JT’s approval rating.


    Can’t help but think that somewhere deep down in Mulcair’s gut there’s a quiet sigh of relief that a quasi-Marxist McQuaig lost. You know? What a colossal pain in his butt she would have been!

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      Eugene says:

      Alternatively, Mulcair must be angry and scared that Trudeau’s hand-picked candidate Freeland beat local girl McQuaig. Dipper HQ must be in full panic mode this morning.

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      james Smith says:

      Ms McQuaig just looked uncomfortable in the role of candidate. We need thoughtful voices on all sides to frame our political debate, and having Ms McQuaig writing on the left is a better position for her. As my dad’s pal always said: “you can never go back to the sergeants’ mess”.
      Given her writings, I don’t think she would have been a very happy MP, and her opinions would be lost.

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    m5slib says:

    I don’t think the Freeland result gets enough credit. From what I remember, her TOTAL vote count would have actually won the last federal election in Toronto Centre. That’s pretty significant considering it’s a byelection. This is perhaps the NDP’s best candidate anyone can remember in Toronto Centre, and Freeland still defeated her heavily.

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      StephenJ says:

      Freeland is a petite woman who will need a booster seat in the HOCs to get over the edge of the desk! I look forward to her presence in the HOCs as an attack poodle who will dig her teeth into the moribund Harper Cons! Go Christia, go!

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    Ottawa Civil Servant says:

    Nice graphic, Mr. Kinsella. Problem is, it doesn’t show true winner: Non-voting Majority. The turn out was horrendous. I mean, really, REALLY bad. No wonder pollsters are bordering on uselessness.

    Winning the riding by 400 is pretty sad, but I take it as an indication that the angry ABC voters were out and the Tory voters decided to lodge their irritation with Ottawa by witholding their votes (and not risking the government.)

    I also minimize the ability to generalize based upon the results in Brandon-Souris because another riding in the same province went solidly Blue. There was a lot of local flavour to this vote.

    Bottom line? Harper has some ‘splainin’ to do; it’s time to torpedo the Liberal Love Boat; give Mulcair more air time so he can irritate more people; and get organized in Toronto and SW Ontario, because this won’t be easy in 2015.

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      Bluegreenblogger says:

      LOL, Torpedo the love boat; So how exactly have all those TV and Radio media buys over the past 9-10 months been doin for ya? Seems like half those torpedos already launched were duds, and the other half ‘returned to sender’. One trick pony needs to come up with some new tricks methinks.

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    tisdale says:

    Some reasons why Dinsdale did not receive those last couple hundred votes that would have pushed him over the top:

    Stupid hat.
    His father was a PC.
    He just came home for himself.
    Pierre Trudeau.
    Justin Trudeau
    Warren Kinsella

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      smelter rat says:

      You’re a funny troll!

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      Reggie says:

      Do you believe that Harper’s last minute letter of desperation to Brandon voters had any bearing on the election?

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        smelter rat says:

        It might have turned off a few Con voters, that’s about it.

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          StephenJ says:

          How so, because that letter was standard Conservative fearmongering that seems to resonate with and activate the conservative base.

          The local riding association must have begged Harper to provide them with a campaign letter because polling indications were grim for their candidate. It was the only by-election Harper got involved with.

          Harper’s intervention may have just tipped the scales slightly to come up with the near-loss win, so don’t shuck it off so easily.

          BTW, did you hear about the Liberal nasty attack literature delivered late in the Toronto Centre campaign?

          Just a photo of Mulcair with the slogan “Angry Tom”! (Warren can you find a copy of this piéce du resistance for our viewing? Love it!)

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    Bluegreenblogger says:

    Nobody much cares about the fortunes of the Green Party, but they should. This tranche of by-elections SHOULD have maintained the narrative of a surging GPC with a very respectable showing by Georges Laracque in Bourassa. They spent real money in the pre-writ period, only to see Georges charged with Fraud at the beginning of the writ period. The Greens have bet their future on some form of electoral pact in the next General election, and have been setting the stage with some very impressive by-election efforts. Now their past work will be forgotten, and no-one will want to sit and negotiate with Elizabeth May when her Party is not even able to influence by-election results. Both Liberal, and NDP should be thinking about the next general election with a much reduced Green Party presence. Incidentally, I am still on a few GPC mailing lists, but I did not get a single email asking for volunteers to canvas, or GOTV in these by-elections. Nor any asks for $$. They did not even try to make an effort.

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    Niall from Winnipeg says:

    Here’s my take on the Brandon-Souris story (or as I like to call it, Warren’s B-S analysis)

    Rolf isn’t Laurentian elitist in the usual sense (or IS he??). He’s more like a radical chic adjunct to the same Annex crowd who use him as a legitimizing prop for their upperclass rebellion (“he’s a PUNK ROcKeR MAAN!!”).

    And it’s amusing to note the similarities between him and a certain other Outremont Lieberal.
    i) parachuted, at the behest of the topmost Lieberal hierarchy, into a rding he hasn’t lived in in for decades (and punting another local, well known & respected candidate)
    ii) knowledge free in the actual workings of political life, but vast hands on “experience in publishing and media sales” if we are to believe the “Canadian” Press, and Rolf’s own self-published biography. Wow.
    ii) tailor made, in a Liberal owned offshore chinese cloning tank/factory, to have only one salient chararcteristic: that of a well know patronym (which, of course, aligns him closely to the ‘Low-info Voter’ who fondly yearn for a simpler time, and a return to old familiar faces & names)

    Thankfully the Brandon voted weren’t bewitched or enchanted enough by the gaseous emanations of pixie dust from Le Dauphin, and chose instead a Conservative representative who spares them from the embarrassing possibility of having their newly elected MP declare his new permanent residence as the Keystone Motor Inn.

    Warren opens with a risibly silly observation that a Maclean’s “chart shows, rather dramatically, that Trudeau’s Liberals gained vote everywhere”. Which is “Lawyerly” true, but only if we deem everywhere to mean none of the 300 odd other ridings scattered about the Rest of Canada, and just the 4 meaningless byelections of yesterday’s story.


    Keep the Faith, and keep buying the Kool-aid mix from Safeway’s just down the street WK.

    Yours in Christ,

    Niall from Winnipeg

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      Patrick says:

      Were you paid to post pre-approved messages?

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        Warren says:

        Ha! My reaction, too.

        Behave, “Niall from Winnipeg,” or ye shall be exposed.

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          Hainesy says:

          I’m just shocked that there is someone actually named Niall from Winnipeg. I wonder if his last name is Young.

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      Lynn says:

      Frozen brain in the “peg, dear? Gosh you sound absolutely envious of Rolf.

      On this forum we tend to be critical thinkers and are a quite an intelligent group IMHO. I do understand that intelligence and critical thinking are contrary to the reform tradition from which you apparently have slithered out of to post rather specious arguments about topics that apparently you are not fit to understand, in over your head my dear? Not fit to govern? Or just scared that as we say in the east, that “the arse is outta her” when the election comes for the former reformers who have not been charged, implicated, or just stink to high heaven with that now famous l’eau de toilet, Harper. The smell lingers long after the wearer leaves.

      Troll on Reformatory, paid by the vitriolic word?. And have a nice day.

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      dave says:

      Anyway, Dauphin is not in the Brandon Souris riding…you really must be from Winnipeg.

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        Ottawa Civil Servant says:

        The comment “pixie dust from Le Dauphin” does not refer to the town, it refers to the pre-revolutionary term for the French heir to the throne through birthright. Previously, the last known Dauphin was Louis XVI, however it is now applied by intelligent people to the MP for Papineau.

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          dave says:

          Heh,heh,heh,…you really must be an Ottawa Civil Servant…intelligent, too…

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    Greg Vezina says:

    Vote splitting by the Liberals, NDP and Green candidate elected the Conservative in Brandon. If an online primary election were held a week or so before the election and the people wo were not voting Conservative knew what the likely result was before election day, the result might have been different. Small polling samples that had the Liberal ahead were not valid. Indeed the Conservatives used the same playbook in 2011 when they announced on the Friday before that a majority was out of reach and the elections was lost, which stampeded people back to them at the last minute. Voters do not need the major party leaders to co-operate, because they have proven time and time again that they simply will not and they all believe they can have their own five year majority dictatorship. All voters really need is a good idea of the outcome before election day and they will fix our broken democracy themselves. http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2011/04/29/exclusive_majority_out_of_reach_tories_say.html

    Look at the numbers.

    Conservative – Larry Maguire – 12,205 – 44.1%
    Liberal – Rolf Dinsdale – 11,814 – 42.7%
    NDP – Cory Szczepanski – 2,037 – 7.4
    Green Party – David Michael Neufeld – 1,354 – 4.9%
    Libertarian – Frank William James Godon – 271 – 1.0%

    One third of the Green vote alone going Liberal would have defeated the Conservative in Brandon-Souris, who won the seat by less than 400 votes and 1.4% of the vote. Even if you add the 1% the Libertarian got, the right wing vote was 45% and the centre-left vote was 55%.

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      StephenJ says:

      Just wondering how the 11,814 Liberal vote splits between (a)hardcore Liberal faithful, (b)left-leaning liberals returning to the fold, (c)strategic voting NDPers and Greens, (d)disaffected Conservatives, (e)18-24 y.o. youth vote and in particular University of Brandon student vote.

      I’m betting that each of these voting cohorts increased the Liberal vote which signifies real gains for Trudeau.

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      Bill Templeman says:

      Greg, you are 100% correct here. Until Liberals, Greens and NDP’ers figure out a way to cooperate, the Cons will win at least a minority in 2015, not only in Brandon Souris but across the country. We can all spin policy but no one can spin numbers.

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    Lance says:

    “And then there’s my favourite part of yesterdays results, the NDP. No wins, numbers dropping, losing to the Liberals everywhere.”

    And so the split becomes more pronounced. That is probably Harper’s favourite part, too.

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      Reggie says:

      Harper loves to watch the Libbers and Dippers juggling and somersaulting over each other because this ensures a splitting of the centre-lefty vote. If there is even a whiff of cooperation, collusion, copulation between the Libs and Dips for the next round of byelections or going into the 2015 general election, Harper will be shouting from the rooftops that there is a secret coalition deal in the works; notwithstanding Trudeau’s rejection of a coalition and Mulcair’s declared hatred of Trudeau and the Liberals. Gonna be interesting times ahead.

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        Ottawa Civil Servant says:

        EXACT same situation has benefitted Liberals for decades. Hate the Tories, vote Liberal; hate them, too? Vote NDP. When the Reform and Bloc were there, the only thing electing Chretien was that he has not one of the others.

        What is hurting the Liberals is NOT some evil Tory plan or the vote splitting by the other parties, wwho have existed for decades. What IS hurting the Liberals is a basic lack of electability. Have a solid policy, argue it better, get Canadians to want you more than the NDP, Greens, Marxist-Leninists, Tories and Heritage Party.

        So, to review, vote splitting is stopped by hard work, recruiting, fundraising and listening to the electorate.
        Blaming voters for voting against you is, well, a repudiation of our democracy.

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    Reggie says:

    Why do I suspect that PQ Premier Marois is planning to relaunch the defunct BQ for the 2015 election, rather than allow Quebecers to vote federalist NDP or Liberal? She is heavily promoting sovereignty for Quebec and she can’t tolerate a resurgence of Trudeau or Mulcair in Quebec.

    I predict there will be a three way contest in Quebec between the newly resurrected BQ, the NPD and the Liberals. Conservatives will be happy with their 5-6 seats.

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    Robin says:

    IMHO there are thousands of Progressive Conservative votes in every riding in Canada that are up for grabs. Their natural home, if they put aside their anti-Liberal bias and focus on their values, is the Liberal Party of Canada under the leadership of a progressive minded and fiscally responsible Member of Parliament, Justin Trudeau. The Reform Party under the leadership of Stephen Harper absorbed the Progressive Conservative party in order to re-unite the right under a new banner, the Conservative Party with a promise of a more ethical government that is open, transparent, responsible and accountable. For over a decade now, the Progressive Conservative members of the Conservative party have remained loyal to that brand and tolerant of some of its excesses. Their hope is for Jim Prentice to return from Bay Street and replace Harper thereby returning the Conservative party to more Progressive Conservative values. This hope is misguided. The Conservative base, the Ford Nation, will not tolerate a return to Liberal-lite politics. The fact is, Prentice is liberal as is Joe Clark. Both men are pragmatic, progessive-minded and fiscally responsible individuals, they are not ideological. Both Prentice and Clark have respect for our democratic institutions and processes. If Canadians are given a choice between a genuine liberal like Justin Trudeau and a compromised liberal like Prentice, they will choose the authentic liberal – Justin Trudeau. If the Conservative party leadership race pits Prentice vs Kenney it will expose deep divisions and regardless of outcome, the stage will be set for a new government in Ottawa that reflects Canadians’ true values. If Harper stays to contest the 2015 election, watch for Progressive Conservative votes to shift to the Liberal Party or stay home, either way, given the razor edged support for the Conservative party in many constituencies, it will result in a Liberal government. Brandon-Souris tells the story. There is reason for hope.

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      StephenJ says:

      My guess is that it was a 50/50 split between the Liberals and new Conservative party. What is more significant to Liberals is the lost left wing liberal vote that migrated to Jack Layton’s NDP by the millions! I suspect the lost left liberal vote was much much greater than the PC gain.

      Trudeau’s biggest challenge will be to reclaim the lost left liberal vote from the NDP, and that’s what seems to be happening now.

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    William says:

    My own two cents says that this was less about local candidates and more about National Leaders.

    Many people are tiring of Harper, and the worse takeaway is that it’s people who previously voted for him (scandals and time in government matter)

    Mulcair would be a great prosecutor on Law & Order but nobody likes an angry PM….ask the current occupant.

    Trudeau is doing and saying the right things. There’s a positive vibe there and he’s got the mojo (CPC knows it, hence the attacks we’ve all seen for months….and will see until 2015)

    That said, Trudeau has to focus on appealing to both those who voted CPC and NDP (fiscally responsible, socially progressive)….nothing new under the sun.

    Clearly, advantage Trudeau

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      Mark says:

      You’re kidding, right? I think Harper and Mulcair are both dicks but at least they are competent (you’d be forgiven for questioning that about Harper these days). I voted for Harper and (grudgingly) concede that Mulcair is capable of being PM (he’s smart enough) but Trudeau is wildly in over his head. Which is to say, that as a right-leaning voter I’d much rather see Mulcair (a man whose politics I strongly dislike) in power before Trudeau..

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        Mark says:

        I’ll vote for another party if a viable candidate comes along. Garneau, Rae, Findlay – all legitimate contenders. Trudeau – well, all the best of luck.

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    Jamie says:

    I’m not one to get excited about by-elections. Harper is in a mid-term funk and his prospects look dim, but I live in BC where the BC Liberals just performed a “miracle” in the last election because they mercilessly pummeled Adrian Dix from pillar to post while he “took the high road” and ran “a positive campaign”. Does that sound familiar?

    As much as I HATE to predict this, Harper wins (and surprisingly convincingly) in 2015 unless Trudeau throws his Marquisse de Queensbury rule book into the fireplace and burns it to ash. Otherwise the Conservative Machine will burn him to ash.

    Let Trudeau smile and say positive things while the Liberals run the toughest meanest ad campaign in their history. That’s the formula for success in 2015.

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    Niall from Winnipeg says:

    While I’m not sure who will be reading this I feel that I must clear the air(e)waves about what has been written on this topic.

    So, here we go.

    i) WK; “expose” me if you will (as a working class guy who happened to post on your site during work hours (not) between 9:30 > 9:45 (i.e. coffee break)); Other than that WTF are you talking about?

    ii) the comments that I’m a “paid troll” (or whatever you call your adversaries) tells more about you than me; firstly, that is it a Liberal worldview that all actions require a financial interest (as opposed to a real (non-rented) value position)
    As a poster on this site I’m in the (commercial) employ of NO-ONE. I’m only motivated by my Christian values (faith, hope, charity, etc. (as is, I grudgingly suspect, WK))

    iii) only an ‘out of towner’ would confuse a well known northwestern MB town with that fool from Outremont

    iv) i’ve noticed (often) that the most debased liberal partisans will fall back to a ‘respectful dialogue’ position, even as as they belch the most ‘vitriolic’ insults against those who they believe are non ‘critical thinkers’. Ha.
    As a third year philosophy student, it’s not me who is unable to engage in critical thinking.

    As always WK I wish you & yours the best, while concurrently, desiring that your Laurentian House of Cards soon falls into well deserved oblivion.

    Yours in Christ,

    Niall (not Niel) from Winnipeg

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