02.21.2014 11:11 AM

It’s not just a honeymoon: time to panic, CPC and NDP

From Ipsos, a real polling firm. Click on the graphic for the story:

What’s it mean? It means that Harper and Mulcair can be forgiven for starting to worry. You can deride him as the Shiny Pony all you want, boys, but it’s now evident that Trudeau is the real deal. As things stand now, he’s going to win – big.

Commenters can (and will) offer their perspectives below. In my Sunday column, I opine that Harper can still win – thanks to progressive vote-splitting, thanks to the surplus, thanks to those 30 new Commons seats in Tory-blue suburbia – but polls like this one suggest that he has a big problem. Mulcair, too.

What thinkest thou, O wk.com readers? Me? Something big and historic is happening in Canadian politics, I reckon.

.

59 Comments

  1. Chris says:

    I think that there are going to be some very hotly contested candidate selections for local riding associations – folks will come out of the woodwork hoping to catch a ride on the Trudeau bandwagon.

  2. Cynical says:

    Yeah. You don’t have to be a dull, drab, dirty, ugly, mean, vicious pony to the job. Go Justin!

    • Swervin' Merv says:

      I hope that my brother-in-law, who previously voted Conservative, represents a trend when he says:

      “My vote will be a punishment vote. It started when I got quite upset when the scientists were getting fired, and even more so when they were not allowed to speak up. I was also angry when the budget became a bloated omnibus bill that buried all kinds of stuff in the middle. I got upset when the regulations for the waterways, lakes, and rivers were changed. That isn’t the Conservative Party – it’s the Reform Party. I am a Conservative – not a Reformer. They are just as bad as the Tea Party. Punishment vote.”

      • david ray says:

        I urge you all to PLEASE watch Kevin Spacey from minute one to two in this clip from the Daily Show of a few days ago. As most of you know he plays Frank Underwood on the tv show “House of Cards.” I have tried for years to understand the Con mindset that grinds us down with lies every day and destroys what little we have left of this little blue ball of beauty we call home.
        There is nothing new here that we don’t already know but he made it so simple at least for me. Not to be missed but replayed for everyone you know that still cares. Agree or disagree but IMHO you will never be able to watch Moore, Harper, Kenney Flaherty or any of his supporting assholes the same way again.

        http://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/tvandradioblog/video/2014/feb/19/house-cards-kevin-spacey-daily-show-video

  3. David says:

    A good show! Public opinion polls are pretty important this early in the game. Just ask former Prime Ministers like Ed Broadbent or Robert Stanfield.

  4. walt says:

    I was very, very skeptical of JT when he was running for the leadership. In fact, I’d already coughed up cash for Garneau.

    Then I met him in a meet-n-greet the local Liberals thing in town, and he convinced me that he was no lightweight.

    He’s a charming, disarming, intelligent man who offers hope of different ideas and directions. A good place to be, though dangerous when Realpolitik kicks in (see: post Obama 2012).

    Anyway, my point is – when people see en masse what I saw before the leadership vote, many will be turned towards the Liberals.

  5. dave says:

    Judy LaMarsh had it right the first time, wish she could warn this generation.

  6. Matt says:

    Except when Ipsos factord in the likelyhood of respondents to actually go out and vote, the Liberal lead drops to 4 points.

    And Nanos released a poll earlier this week saying while the Liberal brand remains strong (56% compared to 50% for both the CPC and NDP) the percentage of people who would consider voting for the Liberals continues to drop.

    When Justin took over 62% said the would consider voting Liberal. In Sept 2013 that fell to 51%. The end of 2013 had them at 53%, and this weeks shows 47% would consider voting Liberal.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberals-ndp-lose-potential-supporters-nanos-number-1.1868633

    http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/02/19/liberal-brand-stronger-but-accessible-vote-for-grits-trends-down-in-january/

    • po'd says:

      How are the cherry trees coming?

      Nanos Weekly (Released 02/12/2014)

      “The latest Nanos weekly tracking on the national political environment suggests that the
      percentage of Canadians who would consider voting Conservatives is at a new low. In
      the week leading up to the federal budget 36 percent of Canadians would consider voting
      for the Conservatives, 55 percent would not consider voting Conservative and the rest
      were unsure”

      http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Political%20Index%202014-02-07E.pdf

      • Matt says:

        I’m not cherry picking anything.

        I posted about the Lib numbers in the Nanos poll simply to illustrate you shouldn’t get too wrapped up in the results of an individual poll as another one released the same week can paint a different picture.

    • Dude, you are re-living the past. This is the actual, real problem with voting intention polling in-accuracy. Polls do not capture future likelihood to vote, the most they can hope for is to ‘adjust’ to reflect the turnout impact they believe will be repeated. It has happened before, and will happen again that somebody figures out how to mobilise a ‘new’ tranche of voters, and once again, the world will decry the accuracy of polls. Think Rob Ford and the Toronto Mayoralty. Nobody outside the Ford team would have been able to accurately predict turnout nearly doubling. So a lot of people thought it was closer than it actually was. I would be very surprised indeed if Trudeau was not already planning just exactly how to improve turnout. That is really what all that ‘hope and hard work’ and ‘positive politics’ is all about. Since these messages appear to be shifting opinions quite dramatically, it is not unreasonable to conclude that turnout will shift as well as voting intentions.

  7. Brad Young says:

    I’d like to think the Fords, even in some small way, contributed to this.

  8. Steve says:

    The Past:
    April 2013 – Justin Trudeau is enjoying a honeymoon period, just like Michael Ignatieff did. It’s still 2.5 years away from the election so these polls mean nothing.

    October 2013 – Trudeau’s honeymoon will end soon and the Liberals will be back to reality, there’s still 2 years before an election so this doesn’t mean anything!

    Feb 2014 – Please, there is still like 18 months before an election so these polls mean nothing.

    The Future:
    Oct 2014 – There is still a year to go before an election, these polls are meaningless!

    Sept 2015 – The only poll that matters is election day and its still a month away. Sitting governments always start campaigns a few points down from where they finish.

    Just a guide to how the comments will go over the next little while whenever there is a poll showing the Liberals ahead.

  9. Niall says:

    Hmm, an opinion (leading) poll just prior to this weekend’s Liberal Party (Platform?) Convention. which as we know is an event much anticipated by every Canadian (well, except Liberal Senators).

    Also of interest, from Ipsos Reid’s own website:

    “What we do:
    We know brands, how to develop them and how to build them. We assess market potential and interpret market trends. We help our clients build long-term relationships with their customers and employees. We test advertising and study audience responses to various media”

    Sound like the perfect entity to poll for, and Brand Manage Product Trudoh.

    Niall from Winnipeg

    • Matt says:

      Ipsos isn’t Forum research.

      Give Mr. Wright a little more credit than that.

    • Kaspar Juul says:

      Geez Neill. I owner what kind of summary can be made of you from all the boneheaded things you post

    • Gayle says:

      Darrell Bricker from Ipsos published a book on how the country is turning conservative. He has talked about it in several public appearances. i don’t think he is keen on pushing a poll to show the opposite is true.

  10. Matt says:

    “What thinkest thou, O wk.com readers? Me? Something big and historic is happening in Canadian politics, I reckon.”

    Maybe.

    But with due respect, we thought the same in Alberta and BC.

    What does all of this mean?

    Campaigns matter. Polls? Not so much.

    • MississaugaPeter says:

      I agree with you Matt.

      Cockiness by the Conservatives will now lead to nervousness.

      Nervousness by the Liberals will now lead to cockiness. Just reading many of the comments here reveals that.

      Elections matter. 18 months is an eternity. Obviously it is better to be ahead now than behind.

  11. dave says:

    Ee -yikes…we lefties better get to work…otherwise we get this Trudeau guy with Christa and her buddy Summers…Mulcair better start emphasizing that team concept.

  12. Ryan Spinney says:

    Do you honestly think Mulcair upset that many people in that short a time? Of course not. This is a brief bump tied to the Liberal convention hype. I’ll also.point out that the NDP Quebec numbers are ridulculous low , time and again in polls Mulcair outdoes Justin in trust and best PM in Quebec in various polls.

    Also even in this poll the NDP is higher then its ever been prior to 2011.

    Mulcair is also the better campaigner, more experienced, smarter then Justin (or Harper), better debater, done the best job of any leader of the opposition in decades, has better policies then Justin, does not have the history of supporting Harper on tons of regressive legislation that Justin has.

    And believe it or not Justin being ahead in the polls does have some uses for Mulcair, it draws the attack sights of the Tories and they’re insane war chest for preelection ads towards the Liberals which will allow Mulcair to get to
    the 2015 election unscathed, just like Jack Layton did while ads ripped iggy and made him vulnerable to attacks.

    Many people have under estimated Mulcair in his career only to regret it.

    • Kevin T. says:

      Your final sentence “Many people have under estimated Mulcair in his career only to regret it” could much more easily and more relevantly apply to Trudeau. Jack Layton got the NDP elected in Quebec, Mr Mulcair is no Jack Layton, and much more importantly, Trudeau is not Iggy.

      • m5slib says:

        Stephen Harper, Gilles Duceppe and Michael Ignatieff, nay, Paul Martin, got the NDP elected in Quebec as much as Jack Layton did.

    • Michael says:

      “a brief bump tied to the Liberal convention hype”

      That made me laugh. I seriously doubt most Canadians could have told you there was a Liberal thingamajiggy this weekend. You make the mistake most politicos make, thinking that the average voter thinks and acts like you do.

  13. WestintheEast says:

    I bloody well hope it comes true. Okay, I’m an expat who has not lived in Camada for 25 years but if Harper stays in power I am not sure there will be anything I would want to come home to.

  14. frmr disgruntled Con now happy Lib says:

    Its encouraging……One election away from seeing the end of “Dear Leader” and his dark cabal…….oh what a joyous day that will be!…….

    I hope the numbers continue to crash, and that the party itself turns on “Dear Leader” and gives the despot the heave(as with most Refoormers, when faced with adversity, they circle the wagons and fire inward)…….that would give me even more pleasure…….

    • smelter rat says:

      I for one, will be dancing in the streets on that glorious day!

    • david ray says:

      you wouldn’t say that had you lived through the G20 in Toronto and don’t you dare give me the party line about how the marchers wouldn’t have been arrested had they stayed home. It was fucking terrifying which of course was the point. Those cops and the snipers on the rooftops would have used real bullets on the marchers instead of rubber ones had they been told to. When the masks come off and the lizard brains are exposed there is no difference between the cops in Toronto and the ones killing protestors in the Ukraine.

      • Elisabeth Lindsay says:

        David…..you don`t seem to be aware that your own Ontario government and police department were in charge at the G20, and they didn`t kill anybody as far as I know.

        Ontario police are no different from those killing their own people in the Ukraine??

        You`re kidding, right?

        • david ray says:

          No Elisabeth I am not kidding. It’s an absolute miracle no one was killed that weekend. Look at the video I left for Les in another reply. If you strip away the thin veneer of civility that keeps us from killing each other it wouldn’t take more than a week. See Katrina aftermath for proof. We are never more than a natural disaster or sudden poverty or having our food supply interrupted from stripping away any pretense of caring what happens to our fellow man. I’ve been in Haiti after the earthquake. I’ve seen children in the barrios sold for sex for a few pesos to fat Canadian and European tourists and I’ve watched the rich drive the poor riding moto conchos off the road with their Mercedes Benze’s fitted with cow catchers so the paint won’t get scratched so go back to being comfortably numb and be thankful you live in the one place wherever that is where the shit has yet to hit the fan.

    • e.a.f. says:

      Les, have a read of the history books. many dictators who come to power in democracies start just the way oil can stevie did and how hiitler did. they get elected democratically and then start to eliminate the opposition and change the rules to benefit them. How do you think the current president of the Ukraine got to this point, democratically elected and then used his majority to undo democracy., No, comparing oil can to other political monsters doesn’t take away the evil the monsters did, it simply lets the light shine on how oil can has started down he same road. If you have a look at the Ukraine and don’t like what you are seeing, better keep oil can from his agenda.

      oil can defunded women’s groups, tried to elimiante unions, silenced federal scientist, closed libraries, sound familiar yet Les.

      • debs says:

        PM Stephen Harper has done alot more then one or two negatives over the last 8 yrs. He has progressively gotten worse, his party breaks elections laws, they are involved in lying, cheating, bribery, scandal after scandal that show them in a total negative light. They control the media, so dont waste breath on saying its a vendetta against them. Steve himself has shown to be a narcissitic sociopath, he throws his enemies to the legal lions and his loyal supporters under the bus. They guy has crossed so many legal boundaries im surprised we havent been labelled a banana republic. IM not joking. Its a far cry from Hitler ordering the gassing of jews, but give him a cabal of bloodthirsty terrorist environmentalists headed by that dreaded David Suzuki(catch the irony alert…as Stevo has a habit of hyperbole himself when it suits his purpose) and I just bet he would love to throw them in jail and bury the keys. He has shut down all laws that interfere with his oily plans. He has silenced his opposition, he has muzzled the scientists, he has closed libraries ( and perhaps burnt the books, they just have disappeared so who can say) The list is endless…but yeah, lets wait until he starts collecting enemies off the streets and giving them showers. You bet, and next majority and its coming( thanks to his new election reform bill)…he might just get on that.

  15. Ian MacMillan says:

    A crucial question will be what happens in Quebec. Remember they went heavily NDP last time, and that was what influenced a lot of the Harper opposition to vote NDP in the rest of the country. What is going to happen there is hard to predict.

    p.s. I really hate these stupid codes you have to interpret to submit comments. I can usually see two or three different possibilities. Sometimes I never get past them. Definitely lowers my proclivity to leave a note, if I have to overcome them.

  16. Ron Waller says:

    Trudeau is going to win big? How big?

    In 2004, Paul Martin got 37% of the vote; kept Harper down to 30%; kept the NDP down to 16%. But he was seen as a failure only winning a minority government. Two years later he was gone.

    Eight years later, Harper is still in power. Why? Because center-left vote splitting gives the Cons a huge unearned advantage. Trudeau could’ve stopped this with ranked ballot voting. But instead choose to do like McGuinty, Campbell and Ghiz: kill electoral reform with a designed-to-fail PR referendum.

    Two years after the 2015 election, Trudeau will be gone if the Cons elect Jim Prentice as their leader, who can unite all 40% of conservative voters easily behind a majority government. Trudeau is not a shiny pony. He’s a mimbo!

    • MoeL says:

      “Trudeau could’ve stopped this with ranked ballot voting”! How exactly would the leader of the third party (for less than a year) have accomplished this?

      • Ron Waller says:

        Trudeau could’ve stuck with his commitment to ranked ballot voting and legislated it on a party-platform when he (likely) wins in 2015. That’s what Liberal party members voted for during the 2012 convention by 70%.

        Instead, Trudeau is killing the 2012 resolution with his omnibus Resolution 31 that bundles up his new democratic reform platform less the RBV commitment. Instead it has an effective commitment to PR, which he said he was opposed to.

        Why commit the Liberal party to PR when the vast majority of Liberals are opposed the system? It is to kill electoral reform in Canada. Liberal parties in the provinces did exactly that with designed-to-fail PR referendums that had an absurd 60% win threshold (that would’ve killed PR in New Zealand.)

        In each provincial referendum, the media said PR was an extremist system that would destroy democracy. It was rejected by over 60% in each province. That’s what Trudeau plans to do federally.

  17. Christian says:

    Voted Liberal in every election since 2000 and even canvassed for the former Liberal MP in my riding (Beaches-East York) back in 2004. I will not vote Liberal in 2015. Why? Asides from legalizing pot (which I do not care about in the least) what the difference between a Harper government and a Justin government? Blue door. Red door. Same difference. Will Justin restore all the environmental legislation the Tories eleiminated? Will he bring in universal daycare? Does he care about cities (the NDP appointed an urban affairs critic who happens to be my MP)? Does he support people and jobs or eliminating the deficit and tax cuts? I don’t know where he stands on ANY of these things. But what I do know is that an NDP government would send a shockwave through this country’s elites (business, academic, political, media). Canada needs a good kick in the ass and that would do it.

    • Bill Templeman says:

      Christian, you have a great point….we have yet to see enough specifics on the policies of the JT Liberals to start hitching our wagons to his horses. Iggy’s policies were: “new jets are bad, more jails are bad, and Harper is bad”. Hopefully we will see more specific policies coming out of this weekend in Mtl. Am not holding my breath…at least we know where Mulcair stands

  18. talltexan says:

    I hate to be a wet blanket, but remember the next HoC election isn’t until 2015 and that gives the Con sm ear machine plenty of time to get revved up and start pushing out the dirt and grime.

  19. Cynical says:

    A friend in Victoria went to a Trudeau event. His comment was that the more Trudeau was exposed to the general public, the better his chances. I don’t know if you want to call it charisma, but there is a surface genuineness to him that is very appealing, and in no way similar to the appeal his dad had.

    We don’t know how Harper would compare, because he is never exposed to the general public, and is never off script except among a vetted crowd.

  20. Ottawa Civil Servant says:

    But, but , but, that means he would win with almost 70% of the country voting against him!!!!

    Sound familiar?

    A week in politics, boys…..And this guy will have a year to talk himself into, well, read below:

    The Canadian Press
    Published Tuesday, February 10, 2009 12:12PM EST

    OTTAWA – A new poll suggests the Tories’ federal leadership advantage has evaporated since Michael Ignatieff took over the Liberal helm.

    The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey indicates the newly minted Liberal leader is viewed more favourably than either Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper or NDP Leader Jack Layton.

    Indeed, Ignatieff was the only national leader to score a net positive rating, with 43 per cent of respondents saying they had a favourable impression of him versus 32 per cent who had an unfavourable opinion.

    Related Links
    Federal budget passes in House of Commons Liberal amendment to federal budget passes Ignatieff subject of glowing New York Times profile Harper was viewed favourably by 43 per cent and unfavourably by 49 per cent, relatively unchanged since last October’s election.

    Layton was seen positively by 37 per cent and negatively by 49 per cent of respondents, almost a complete reversal since the election campaign when the NDP leader was the most favourably viewed national leader.

    Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/ignatieff-making-better-impression-than-harper-poll-1.368812#ixzz2tzonz7Cm

    • Gayle says:

      Unless what this shows is how desperate the public are to find someone to replace Trudeau. Neither Dion nor Ignatieff passed. Trudeau is doing this the right way- slow and steady. Of course he is benefiting from the fact there is a majority government and no election until 2015. This gives him time to consolidate his position, his people and his platform.

      I still think Harper is going to break that election law and call it sooner. He made a big mistake with that legislation.

  21. Kaiser Helmets 'n Motorbikes says:

    Liberal support is a mile wide and a inch deep. Cons are cons, 24/7, and they(we) all go out to vote.

    Jesustin will have to do better than 37% 18 months out in the middle of an establishment dry spell to scare the establishment left n right from their comfy chairs.

  22. Kev says:

    Tory-blue suburbia?

    Not hardly. The new ON and BC seats are swing ridings. The Tories know this.

  23. e.a.f. says:

    I don’t care if the kid is the new shiny pony in the political coral, as long as oil can stevie is gone after the next election it doesn’t matter if the kid won on his boxing ability, his looks, his family’s looks, his father’s reputation. Just as long as the slimers are gone its all good. having said this, it just fine if everyone has a last minute change of heart and we have Mulcair. as long as oil can stevie is gone and whom ever replaces him undoes the harm oil can has done to this country.

    • Doris says:

      That’s the problem you cannot either have Trudeau or Mulcair because the slimecons still slide up the middle. Either Trudeau or Mulcair has to slip and win big to defeat the slimecons – it doesn’t have to be that way!

      How many resolutions at the LibCon call for electoral cooperation? Probably none and that’s the problem until the arrogant Libs and the libhating dips cooperate watch the slimecons win every time.

  24. trombone guy says:

    Whatever you say Warren.

  25. Gayle says:

    I agree that Duncan may fall victim to the split vote. As someone who voted for her the last two times, I am OK with that. The Liberals get my vote back.

  26. matt says:

    I think Trudeau:
    -is smarter than I give him credit for, but he inexplicably didn’t stick to anything between university and becoming a MP. That bugs me and I can’t figure it out. I can’t be the only one.
    -has politics and people skills oozing out of his DNA and I think Canadians want that. The last leaders who had that were Chretien and Layton.
    -continues to go over the top and shows poor/impulsive judgment on policy (e.g. Senate) and indulges his drama teacher side. If I was Katie I would tell him: less is more. The exception to the less is more advice are/would be several rock hard policy positions. KXL is an excellent example. Choose two more.
    -has excellent branding choices (hope, hard work, middle class), but it can’t get swamped by other bromides (e.g., Martin’s 27 priorities).
    -has to be careful to not be perceived as personally inconsistent with his brand – he has hope in spades, but will be facing 8-figure ad campaigns about why he knows nothing about hard work or the middle class.
    -just has to be competitive in this election because the Liberals have found out what happens when you have an inexperienced leader in a campaign, and what happens with too much leadership churn. Unless the Liberals lose seats again, Trudeau should be retained to fight the next election after this one. He is likely to win that if everyone keeps their eye on the prize.

    If I was advising the CPC I would tell them to:
    -spend millions on making Trudeau look like an entitled rich Johnny come lately with neither gravitas nor experience.
    -spend tens of millions now getting as oiled up as possible for the next campaign. Winning a majority with 30% of the vote is very very hard.
    -groom Harper successors NOW for the election after this one when Trudeau will be stronger and either (a) Harper will be at his weakest (b) Harper’s successors will be brand new
    -get firm deliverables out the door ASAP before the next election. A balanced budget. A national program of some sort dealing with the economy. Senate reform of some sort.
    -do something about the environment. Make it an income trusts-type moment. Do it soon. Get your base made at you to gain credibility with the swing voters you need for a majority. Maybe this is what the income-splitting is about.
    -do something to appease your base.

  27. e.a.f. says:

    some of it might work, but then it might not. oil can has pissed off enough Veterans to make an impact. He has been fighting with the P.S.A.C. and will continue to do so. Between those two groups, oil can may find he doesn’t have a majority or a minority. What the other parties have to do is establish a communications network which will ensure their base gets to the polls on election day. if they don’t, who knows we could wake up with Elizabeth May as P.M. Now wouldn’t that be fun!

    You don’t have to stick to one thing between being in university and becoming a politician. sometimes doing a number of things simply exposes you to more of life. Yes, the kid most likely is smarter than you give him credit for. he may be P.E.T.’s son, but don’t forget he is Sinclair’s grandson, who was no mean slouch as a politician.

  28. Can we see the poll results after his weak speech at the Liberal Convention?

  29. James curran says:

    He’s an immovable object AND an unstoppable force that Trudeau.

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