02.13.2014 11:36 PM

The federal implications of two provincial byelections



  1. !o! says:

    So here is the back-of-the-napkin math on the vote share vs. 2011

    Thornhill, 2011
    NDP 11.97%, OLP 23.67%, evil 61.38%

    Thornhill 2014
    NDP 6.78%, OLP 41.5%, evil 47.96%

    Niagara, 2011
    NDP 23.49%, OLP 18.9%, evil 53.26%

    Niagara, 2014
    NDP 39.44%, OLP 19.39%, evil 36.82%

    In both ridings the PCs took a huge hit. OLP increased their share of the vote in both ridings. NDP voters voted OLP in Thornhill, but it wasn’t quite enough. There’s going to be a lot of the usual bluster about Hudak from the angry quarters tomorrow.

    • !o! says:

      gah, numbers were from federal ridings. bleh. Ignore please.

      • Matt says:

        Even if they were from the provincial election, it would be hard to compare the results from a general election to a by-election in terms of % of the vote won by each party.

        By-elections often have half the voter turnout of the general election.

  2. Yukon Cornelius says:

    Okay, I’ll bite. In an earlier post you said that the Liberals would lose both. So, why send in Trudeau? Hubris or inexperience?

  3. Warren says:

    They thought they could repeat what happened in Nova Scotia. But Stephen M. was always going to win in Nova Scotia. That was more a case of Justin riding his coat-tails, perhaps, than the reverse.

    Canadians like their federal and political parties to maintain some distance from each other. Words Trudeau’s advisors should heed.

    But they won’t.

    • VC says:

      I think there may be one exception in the case of the federal and Saskatchewan provincial NDP. I lived in Regina during the 2007 election and it seemed to me that the Saskatchewan NDP’ers saw themselves as a branch of their federal counterparts.

    • Matt says:

      The Libs sent him into Toronto to support Smitherman in the 2010 mayoral election, as well as several close federal ridings around the GTA in 2011, like with Ruby Dhalla, and most if not all lost.

    • Domenico says:

      I always considered it a truism in Canadian politics that federal politicians kept their noses out of provincial races. And visa versa.

  4. Al in Cranbrook says:

    For as long as I can remember, federal politicians kept their noses out of provincial elections/politics…the exception to this rule sometimes being the NDP.

    True with Social Credit, and even Preston Manning and the Reform kept their distance.

    In large part this is because, certainly here in BC, provincial politics involves coalitions of sorts running against the socialist hordes…er, I mean…the NDP. And thus provincial leaders prefer federal counterparts keep their distance.

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