04.30.2014 07:48 AM

“Polls clear as mud in Ontario”

No kidding.

My political gut, which I always trust over my political head, tells me that the Ontario Liberals are heading to the charnel house. (Thanks, perhaps, to the Three Horsepeople of the Ontario Liberal Apocalypse.)

What’s your view, O wk.com oracles?

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26 Comments

  1. james Smith says:

    You might be correct. However; I tend to think we end up right back in the same place were in now for 5 reasons:
    – Voters don’t like / trust Mr H (you played on that well with your Hudak Helper spoof I recall)
    – Ms H yet to offer an alternative or a credible front bench
    – NDP fear outside 416 (the reason Grits voted Tory in 2011)
    – Ms Wynn is the most likeable & has attracted some good candidates that will help win seats in 905 & 519
    – Don’t count Ms Wynn out in a campaign, like you, I thought Ms P would take the leadership & a certain Toronto Mayoralty candidate thought he could win the seat she holds as well.
    Should be fun

  2. Matt says:

    threehundredeight.com is the worst of all.

    The take all the polls with their individual flawed methodologies, then run those through their own flawed methodology to make their predictions.

    One of the most reliable companies out there, Ipsos, released their poll the day after Nanos, yet Eric didn’t include that poll in his mash up.

    Wonder why.

  3. Redgerrymander says:

    Polls should be regulated or banned… they have too much influence on distracted voters otherwise. I won’t hold my breath though, since neither Tweedledee or Tweedledum are likely to ever back such legislation, which they are the major beneficiaries of. Like our 18th century, first-past-the-post electoral system, polling is a way of enforcing the status quo and make sure that only the right sort of people get access to the trough. Sickening.

  4. Étienne says:

    Would the kind and knowledgeable readers of wk.com help this neophyte by putting names to the faces of those horsepeople?

    • SJS says:

      This is sausage-making within the sausage-making.
      David Herle (longtime Martin supporter, who helped Ignatieff and now is working with Wynne– always seems to be on the other side from WK, if Liberals had sides), Pat Sorbara (longtime party hack, now working with Wynne), and of course- Greg Sorbara (longtime party stalwart, almost always referred to as a solid citizen, confusing as to why WK (who would have worked with him on many campaigns) now craps on him)
      Here’s an article to help fill you in. Herle and PSorbara are predictable grudges (yawn).
      Again, not sure how old colleague Greg pissed in WK’s pot– he, or someone else would need to comment.
      http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/09/06/wynne_taps_federal_liberal_veterans_to_run_provincial_election_campaign.html

      In other news– what’s with the Trinity-Spadina Riding Association squawking about “due process” on Ms Innes but then they now call a hurry-up nomination mtg for this weekend, not letting Vaughan much time at all to send memberships but…. one of the existing nominees is…. on the Exec and his wife is the President of the Riding Association?

      I know, I know… the Dipper is a great guy and will continue the super work Olivia has done in Ottawa.

      • Warren says:

        Sorbara is the only politician who ever used taxpayer funded staff to call me to tell me what to write on this web site. More than once, too. I don’t like him. At all.

        • SJS says:

          That’s a drag you feel that way. But it is what it is- with my kids I always stress that you can’t question someone’s feelings (including their own).
          I’ve always felt Sorbara was Ontario’s first black finance minister- probably because of his combo of southern Italian blood and almost Clintonian charm.
          Also, I trust for consistency that when you received these calls you yourself weren’t a taxpayer funded staffer and/or Daisy (and affiliates) weren’t at the trough.

          • Warren says:

            I beg your pardon? Tell me I exactly what your last paragraph means, please.

          • SJS says:

            Sure. Apologies, I thought it was clear.
            Now, as a disclaimer I’ll say that I rely on this site as my primary windows into the comings and goings of the latest political sausage-making but-
            I had thought that there was a mini-controversy recently, in which some smear article was written, pointing out that you and others in the political advisory world received payment from party caucuses (a practice which you then rightly pointed out on your site that everyone should know about because it’s all disclosed and besides, everyone does it, the writer knew that, etc… the “Dear Adam” posting). So, you have at times been “taxpayer funded” too. What I meant in the above was that if, on behalf of the taxpayer, he wanted to hire WK, couldn’t he also be buying into access to your pulpit? I may remember this because the site is indeed a disproportionate share of my political web-surfing but I believe I’ve seen you promote other paid clients on here.
            I trust that the times GSorbara had staff call you to do or say something were not the same times that the Liberal Caucus were paying you, with tax-dollars to do do or say things.
            Maybe completely off the mark. If so, apologies.

          • Warren says:

            He had staff warn me to stop writing critical things about Bob Rae.

    • Étienne says:

      Found one: David Herle, Liberal campaign co-chair for 2004 and 2006.

      Two to go…

      • Étienne says:

        Number two: Pat Sorbara, Wynne’s campaign director. And Greg Sorbara’s the third.

        So my Google-fu isn’t so bad then.

    • Coelocanth_Jones says:

      Left hand side is Jamie Herle, one of CBC’s three Insiders, the other two, your guess is a s good as mine

  5. WilliamW says:

    Hudak will win a slim minority vote because the NDP will eat into Liberal support.

    When the legislature reconvenes after the election, Wynne will hold on to government and table a post-election Budget which Horwath will support. This will frustrate the Hudak PCs but the Horwath NDP will not allow a Conservative government to take hold in Ontario.

    Next election whenever, the NDP will get slaughtered and the Liberals will win a majority government to the chagrin of the PCs who will then replace Hudak. See ya in 2016-18.

    • ottawacon says:

      I cannot see Hudak surviving to fight the second election in that scenario. A more likely sequence would be Hudak getting turfed and his replacement winning simply by breathing through his nose.

      • WilliamW says:

        If Hudak wins more ridings than Wynne but still can’t get a majority, he will be hard to overthrow unless he voluntarily resigns. There would have to be a big revolt within the PCs and that’s something I can’t see even if Hudak can’t get a majority. If Hudak is turfed, Wynne will slaughter the PCs and their new unproven leader. Hudak stays for another kick at the can.

  6. JH says:

    Speaking of polls, the lead of the NDP over the Liberals among Francophones in the latest Quebec CROP is not good news for Justin. Harper won’t care where he is, but Mulcair’s big lead is worrisome, as Trudeau needs all the seats in Quebec he can get.

  7. Bill Templeman says:

    The Ontario dilemma is that the electorate want to punish the Liberals for sins real and imagined– for me it is wasteful school closures, but let us not count all the ways here, they are numerous as the sands of the Ganges as we all know–but the voters don’t want to wake up the morning of Oct 28 to the crowing of Premier Hudak. If Hudak won, voters would scream that the punishment exceeds the crime. So the result will be some sort of Minority Muddle, with the NDP doing better than 308.com predicts. More votes will be cast against something than for something.

    • Chris says:

      Ontario teachers and education workers are in a bit of a jam on this one – we have been dragged through the mud (and will continue to be) for political benefit but some will have to hold their noses and vote liberal in tight races – the liberals aren’t treating us well but they don’t seem to hate us like the cons.

  8. Lisa says:

    The outcome will depend on whether Liberal supporters hold their nose and vote Liberal, or stay home. I think we need a change, but don’t like the alternatives. Hudak is a far-right, tea party idiot. Horvath has shown no leadership. Wynne is really the best leader. But it’s time for a change. I think many voters are in the same place I am. I know I will vote, just don’t know who I will vote for. But will other Liberal voters stay home, or vote? That will determine the outcome.

  9. John Werry says:

    I predict another Liberal minority, with the “p” Cons as the third party. Polls are like some fire hydrants in Toronto. At least the hydrants that are not functional are marked as such. Gabba Gabba Hey!!

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