06.09.2014 09:20 AM

Highly-scientific poll on why Warren thinks Tim Hudak is going to win (updated)

There are lots of reasons, but the four found in the highly-scientific poll below are the main ones.  Can you guess which one is the big one? I have several bets riding on this puppy, so choose carefully. This Highly-Scientific Poll has a margin of error of one kabillion percent, 21 times out of 20.

And, yes, I’ve been wrong about these provincial things before, when everyone else was, too (cf. B.C.) but I’ve also been right, when no one else was (cf. Alberta).  One thing’s for sure: in an election like this one, where voters aren’t paying any attention whatsoever, and where Ms. Nun Oftheabove is the favourite party leader, turnout is going to be really, really bad.


UPDATE: We have a new reason! The Ontario Liberal Party, which has gone Full Juggernaut, just sent around an email seeking donations from the Rt. Hon. Paul Himself! Wow, that’ll get all of us to vote OLP and donate, now!

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52 Comments

  1. Cow says:

    I think the big unanswered question is the NDP vote. Every NDPer I know–and I know a lot of them–says they’re staying home or spoiling their ballot (or a few are voting Liberal). If there’s a collapse of the NDP vote, the Liberals will be fine, since they’ll pick up more from the NDP than they’ll lose to the PCs. If all the people who say they’re done with Horwath suck it up and vote for the NDP anyway, we’ll have a lot of split ridings and I suspect Hudak walks away with a win in the end.

    My guess is that some stay home, but most just show up and vote their traditional party, because nobody is paying any attention, as you say. We’ll see!

    • Matt says:

      according to Ipsos, something like 55% of Liberal supporters believe their party will win.

      Some may think they don’t need to actually go out and vote because they feel the Libs will win.

    • Coelocanth_Jones says:

      I am compelled to ask whether or not you live in a downtown Toronto riding with and NDP incumbent, because if the NDP suffer a setback this time around, the seat projections i’ve seen suggest that it will be thanks to “NDP supporters” such as the ones you describe in such seats. In the 905 riding where I’ve been campaigning for the NDP, the PC incumbent is roundly expected to be reelected, but the liberals are running a paper candidate, everybody who implicitly wants said PC gone gives us a great response, and npbody seems to give a shit what the star and the Waffle letter writers have to say.

      Unless i made the wrong call, i think it’s a telling study of contrast in terms of how urban and suburban progressives think

      • jeff316 says:

        Well, first off those ridings have gentrified substantially, Parkdale and Beaches weren’t that big wins for the NDP in 2011. I also think those urban voters are politically savvy enough to pay attention to platforms but not savvy enough to understand that the budget isn’t properly funded for all the things Wynne is proposing (without cuts.) So they see a budget fully of NDP stuff led by a person who should probably be in the NDP and that they would prefer to lead the NDP (over Horwath) and actually has a chance to win and that’s a win win all around for them.

        I think you’re partially right that there is a big gulf between downtowners and the burbs and many NDP inclined voters in the Toronto core fundamentally disagree with Horwath’s focus on hydro rates and car insurance in part because of ideology, in part because of gentrification and in part because I don’t think some very urban Torontonians understand just how hollowed out some other parts of the province have gotten in the last ten years. (That final comment is neither an critique or endorsement of any party or platform.) So it is not surprising that the NDP isn’t the top choice of downtowners but was actually doing not too poorly in the burbs outside of Toronto (Hamilton, Brampton, Windsor, London, Niagara) until Hudak went all hard-right.

        I also think a lot of it has to do with the “progressive” label. That brand has become more valuable as the Conservatives have risen to and maintained power. If you look at a lot of the NDP-negative letters to the editor, most of them reference the NDP abandoning “progressives”, but few reference the actual platform planks or issues of substance that a progressive may have with the NDP budget. It’s about perception. Wynne and her team completely marginalized the NDP here.

        I also think the NDP campaign has been atrocious and the Liberal vote won’t be all that bad outside of some ridings in the southwest and eastern Ontario.

        • Just askin' says:

          Your assumption is that most liberals are “progressives”, not centrists, which I suspect is incorrect. Despite her “likability”, Wynne has been alienating voters right, left and centre, with her unique blend of desperation and confusion.

  2. Jim Miller says:

    Um…there’s no “All of the above” selection?

  3. Matt says:

    Bet you’re still more accurate than Forum or EKOS.

  4. Bobby says:

    Change is the motivator and it’s been probably the most consistent number in the polls since probably last fall.
    When it’s just the voter and his/her ballot who at the end of the day want an alternative to change, which they have in both the NDP and PCs this time, they’ll pick change because they’re just tired and this gov’t has been in power way too long. If the thirst for change is strong there isn’t much to stop it…..and it’s certainly not a campaign led by the Martin liberals.
    Things could have been so much different with Sandra P. – is she waiting in the wings to replace Wynne?

    • Matt says:

      Ms. Pupatello just took over as the chair of Hydro One.

      She probably will make more than the Premier and have fewer headaches.

      • Kelly says:

        None of the models will work because we have a phony electoral system. Nobody will get the government they voted for. The fact that we need “models” to project outcomes belies the sham nature of our fake system.

  5. Al in Cranbrook says:

    You’re first three options all apply, I’d have picked any one of them…but chose PCs most motivated. Certainly CPC MPs from Ontario have gotten involved, ’cause it’s where they live and they have a stake in the outcome. Harper has stayed out of the fray, which certainly cannot be said of Trudeau.

    A considerable number of people will only vote for their party, simply can’t bring themselves to switch. When their party finally and undeniably sinks into the proverbial crapper, a lot of these voters will stay home.

    A larger share of voters tend towards the center, their main concern is good government. It is these who have little problem moving between the two traditional parties, and whom have the greatest ability to affect change. These voters are not into ideological “isms”, almost intuitively rejecting them…a problem for the NDP in a three way race. Generally, the NDP only do well within the context of a two party system, such as is the case here in BC.

    A lot of Liberals are going to stay home, ’cause they’re thoroughly disenchanted with their party/government. Ontario is a mess, and they know it, and they’re pissed about it.

    Core NDP support will show up. But less enthused/dedicated, seeing the writing on the wall, may waive their vote.

    In a three way contest, 39% to 41% will win a slim majority. More than 42% can quickly translate into a sweeping victory. Polls tend to underestimate the winning sides vote, in part due to the undecided factor, who finally decide on election day.

    The biggest factor is desire for change, and over 70% is a relatively massive share of the electorate. These are the most motivated voters, and the bulk of these are of the traditional sort who easily switch between Liberal and PC.

    Asides: a) More people have negative memories of Rae’s NDP government than do they of Harris’s PCs. b) Few people see the world in the same terms as do political junkies who hang out on dedicated forums. c) About six out of ten voters, but probably more, couldn’t accurately describe the differences between right and left ideologies if their lives depended on it, and don’t even remotely care that they don’t know. d) The unions have made this election all about them. They will pay for it. The majority of voters could give a rat’s ass about unions, if not actually harbor considerable contempt for them. Were the truth to be revealed, I’ve no doubt a surprising number of dues paying members feel the same way.

    My prediction remains the same: PC majority…possibly epic.

    • Chris says:

      c) About six out of ten voters, but probably more, couldn’t accurately describe the differences between right and left ideologies if their lives depended on it, and don’t even remotely care that they don’t know.

      On this we agree, and it is a bit frightening to think of the number of people who might vote PC without a full grasp of the implications of that.

      • Al in Cranbrook says:

        I’d say the same thing regarding left of center parties, where ideology tends to drive policy over everything else, or more to the point, in spite of everything else.

        My father-in-law is somewhat classic. He grew up in Sask. sixty to seventy years ago, and pretty much has been voting for Tommy Douglas ever since.

    • sezme says:

      re: “a) More people have negative memories of Rae’s NDP government than do they of Harris’s PCs.”

      I’d like to see this one measured. I tend to think the opposite, but that may reflect my bias, (as, I believe, your statement may reflect yours).

      • I agree with Sezme. I’d like to think more people disliked Harris’ government than Rae’s, but what do I know.

        I also think the main reason the PC’s may win is this: “Core NDP support will show up. But less enthused/dedicated, seeing the writing on the wall, may waive their vote.” Based on my own entirely unscientific analysis, it appears that more often than not the people most likely to vote NDP are also those most likely not to vote at all.

        • Al in Cranbrook says:

          A good part of the NDP’s problem is that a lot of their support is among younger people, whom historically are the least likely to be bothered with elections.

          (Recalling G.B. Shaw(?) who noted, to paraphrase, “If at twenty years of age, one is not socialist, then one has no heart. And if by forty years of age, one is still socialist, then they have no brains.”)

      • Al in Cranbrook says:

        Albeit from the other side of the country, seems to me the Harris government ran aground over scandals (real or perceived), while under the NDP Ontario’s economy tanked.

        Economic hardship tends to leave a bigger impression, as it affects people directly.

        Here in BC, when push came to shove, and sober second thought came into play, the majority of voters recalled the NDP’s trashing of the economy and considered that more critical to the overall well being of the province than some of the issues of propriety of the current regime.

        It didn’t help the NDP in that they conveyed a message that, in essence, they would return to the same sort of policies that they inflicted upon us the last time they were in power.

        Worse for the NDP, their leader came across as a perpetually Negative Nancy, while Christy Clark prevailed as the eternal optimist. Perhaps worthy to note when considering Wynne’s performance in contrast to Hudak’s.

  6. Richard says:

    Living in one of the first seats the Liberals need to keep if Wynne was to be successful (Brant), I’ll tell you what I see. NO ONE CARES. Also, the barrage of negative ads this time around has made quite a few people say “I can’t wait til this is over, so I don’t have to see this crap on TV/Radio/Mail for a while.” That is definitely not a turnout booster.

    And anyone of Joe Public who does care is negatively motivated, which does not favour the incumbent (Mr. Levac). So I am with you on this one, Warren.

  7. Krago says:

    The latest EKOS poll shows the Liberals at 35.9% among committed voters, but at 42.2% among likely voters. I wonder where they would be if EKOS’ likely voter model didn’t give the Liberals an extra boost for ’emotional engagement’. (You get half a point for expressing anger at Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal government, but half a point each for expressing hope or happiness.)

  8. Ty says:

    Hudak’s got the GOTV advantage, but it’s all in rural ridings. The Liberal GOTV motivator is public servants, and they’re spread everywhere.

    NDP vote is collapsing in recent polls. After completely winging the debate Wynne should have been 5 points down. NDP switchers are keeping her afloat.

    I’m thinking the Liberals pull it off by 3-4 seats.

  9. Ty says:

    And just as an added note: The Canadian federal election with Mr. Martin that you’re comparing this to? Ontario results were Lib 54, CPC 40, NDP 12

  10. Coelocanth_Jones says:

    Three days out, the only thing I still feel confident enough to predict is that either the liberals or PCs will win, and that it will be a minority. We all know how accurate the polls have been in most recent provincial races, but the fact that they’ve been constantly see sawing and that they’ve had the two largest parties always within two or three percentage points of each other points to the fact that Ontario is really struggling to make up its mind, and anybody thinking their team can pull off a majority needs to step out of their bubble

  11. Alex says:

    My gut tells me that you are right Warren and that the PCs will win. However, the data (e.g. http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/ontario-seat-projections/) is pointing to another Liberal minority. Of course, political “data” is based on polling, and polling has become a four letter word after recent disasters in B.C. and Alberta. That being said, if pollsters are still somewhat right, then the numbers are suggesting that Hudak is going to lose.

  12. Steven says:

    So Harper’s prediction of a Conservative Trifecta for Toronto wasn’t so far off then?…

    It will be in no small thanks to the protest voters for the NDP and Greens, especially in the 905 region.

    • Coelocanth_Jones says:

      Even in stevie gets his little hat trick, it’ll last a few months before an increasingly likely Chow victory in October. Ford’s done an exempliary job in setting the right wing agenda at city hall back another decade

      • Al in Cranbrook says:

        Didn’t the polls ahead of the last mayoralty race in Toronto turn out to be so far off the mark on election day as to be laughable???

        • Coelocanth_Jones says:

          Ford had a very consistent lead from about August onward. People like me can be faulted for flat out refusing to believe the polls until the votes were being counted, but they made the right call. Ford is currently polling in third, and a lot can change in almost half a year, but I can see either his stay in rehab increasing longer and longer until he is forced to drop out already, or coming back marginally more sober and fucking up royally at least once more before October

        • Matt says:

          Public polls showed a statistical tie between Ford and Smitherman in the 35% each range.

          When Rocco Rossi dropped out of the race he said his internal polling showed a massive Ford lead from day one.

  13. david ray says:

    as many people will vote as were in the audience listening to Warren and Frankie. in the rain. during the day. and Bruce Wayne will be Premier so look for the bat sign in the sky cause we are in for some serious BS for the next five years. I think the country has reached some kind of burned out tipping point which could foster God knows what. and so it goes.

  14. Joe says:

    A plea from 2000 miles away: Could someone please enlighten me as to how the Ontario Liberals are anywhere above 10% standing in the polls? From what I hear and read there has been huge sums of money going to connected corporations, huge increases in power bills, ineptitude/corruption on a massive scale and Ontarians are considering electing them again?!?! Maybe its just my western roots but I remember when PC Brian Mulroney was seen as corrupt we westerners walked out the door and started something new. In Ontario corruption is rewarded with re-election?

    • Al in Cranbrook says:

      Recall that Ontario also held out for the federal Liberals…which similarly had westerners wondering what the hell does it take before they finally wake up and smell the GD coffee???

    • Coelocanth_Jones says:

      It would be tragic if that were the case. This ontarian certainly thinks the libs deserve little more than 10% of the vote, but then again I’m still figuring out how 47% of torontonians voted for Rob Ford. The local media can bang on all they want about “the suburbs”, but during my time living in Scarborough, I befriended life long scarbirians who couldn’t account for just how the hell their former city swung for him

    • Spencer says:

      For the general public the other choices probably aren’t very attractive. I admit I have a bias towards the Liberals, but from what I’ve seen no one can really figure out what the NDP currently stand for in this election and some of the usual supporters have been a bit put off by the constant focus on populist measures like removing the sales tax from gas home heating bills. Hudak hasn’t been able to connect with the average person very well and there is still some reluctance about how right wing his party has gone. For anyone who takes a second look the PC ‘Million Jobs’ economic plan has basically amounted to a cheesy campaign slogan and isn’t very likely to happen.

      Personally I haven’t been happy with the scandals, and I’m not going to go into a ton of detail right now (though I have disputed how severe the scandals actually were with people before, not that it probably matters to the average person). That being said I think most people while tired with the scandals simply see most of them as old news and have other concerns on their minds when they vote. It is a factor but not the decisive one for how people vote.

  15. Emil E says:

    Dear Warren, please explain the impact of the 1.2 million public service worker vote and the union bosses actively urging them to not vote Hudak but to vote for another party (while covertly saying they should vote Liberal and not NDP so that the vote is not split)?

    I believe the public service union is well energized to GOTV and will flock to the Liberals and help elect a Wynne majority government.

    • Warren says:

      Didn’t quite happen with a union leader guy as OLP candidate – hand-picked buy Wynne personally, no less – in London West, eh?

      Came third. Barely got his deposit back.

  16. Bill From Willowdale says:

    Hudak only wins if he gets a majority.

  17. Al in Cranbrook says:

    This should remind everyone of what the real issue of this campaign is…

    http://business.financialpost.com/2014/06/06/ontario-election-deficit/

    Having Ontario’s credit worthiness downgraded pretty much wraps the whole matter of sensible and responsible governance in a nutshell. And if it happens, it will cost taxpayers additional billions over the long haul due to less than favorable interest rates.

  18. Karl says:

    So you’re abandoning the last part of “Very happy by the way. See ya, Ms. Wynne. Howdy, Premier Horwath” from your May 2nd post then?

    • Warren says:

      Yep. I thought she had money. Apparently not.

      • Matt says:

        With the Libs resorting to getting Paul Martin to send an email today begging for donations, can we assume the Libs are tapped out with 3 days left?

        They hoping for one final desperation, Hail Mary ad buy?

        • Karl says:

          I doubt it. I am pretty sure that OLP has the capacity to spend up to the limit but some of that will be debt financing as it is with almost all parties.

          Parties make hay when the sun is shining and that certainly applies to fundraising during elections – when the donor base (and people outside it) care more deeply than they would normally.

        • Karl says:

          I doubt it. I am pretty sure that OLP has the capacity to spend up to the limit but some of that will be debt financing, as it is with almost all parties in Canada.

          Parties make hay when the sun is shining and that certainly applies to fundraising during elections – when the donor base (and people outside it) care more deeply than they would normally.

  19. Vince says:

    It’s hard to see where the PCs are going to pick up more than 5 seats. They’re going to lose Etobicoke-Lakeshore. So they’ll have to win two Ottawa seats, Glengarry and Brant. That’s 40. After that, it’s pretty hard going for them. They could get Brampton-Springdale, Peterborough and, less likely, K-W and London West. From there, they’ll need St. Catharines, which will be tough to do . They’re still at 45. By this point, they’ll have to hope NDP not only takes from Libs in Sudbury and Windsor, but also TB. And also hope that they don’t lose at least one of Cambridge, Burlington or P-W. When you have a candidate in Renfrew that gets 73% of the vote, that vote is extremely inefficient.

  20. vince says:

    PC vote is extremely inefficient. Will be lucky to pick up 5 and virtually impossible to get more than 8. Especially as they’re going to lose in Etobicoke and likely in Cambridge. No possibility of a majority.

  21. Karl says:

    It looks to me that the PC post-debate gallstone has largely passed through the system. It is now about the extent of the Liberal win. And whether there will be an Orange flush of NDP seats in Toronto.

  22. Bob says:

    BUMP
    “Highly-scientific poll on why Warren thinks Tim Hudak is going to win (updated) ”

    What is this science based on? Does this same science say that the Earth is only 6,000 years old, and that the earth isn’t warming, and that evolution doesn’t exist…

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