You may be right that there might be some of the “10 years is long enough, someone else’s turn” in the EKOS numbers, BUT a lot of people thought the same about the Ontario Liberals.
Campaign’s matter, and neither Mulcair nor Trudeau have experienced a 4 – 5 week long national campaign. Will that help them? Hurt them? We’ll know on election night 2015.
I have said the same thing myself. Conservatives will take solace in the fact that the Ontario Liberals were able to pull off a majority victory, but there are some key differences between the OLP and the CPC.
Even though the “it’s time for a change” numbers were high in Ontario, all of the polls before and during the election showed the PCs and Liberals neck and neck. Federally the CPC is way behind the Liberals. Also, it could be argued that by changing leaders the OLP embodied the change people were looking for, whereas the CPC is at this time going into the election with the same leader that has gotten them to where they are now.
In Ontario Wynne’s numbers were always better than her party’s, and she always had high personal appeal. The same can not be said of Harper. Hudak on the other hand never connected with voters and many people including his own party members didn’t like him. The same can not be said of Trudeau.
If you are looking for an Ontario comparison I think you would be better to look at the 2011 election.
Well, in both 2011 and 2014 the PC’s were leading in pretty much all the polls prior to the election, some by double digits. Were those numbers real or were they what traditionally happens between elections with people parking their support with the opposition. For the CPC, they tend to poll lower than they get on election night, and their support does traditionally fall during the summer months.
Hudak blew it in 2011’s campaign by trying to “out McGuinty” McGuinty.
Hudak blew it in 2014’s campaign with his announcement to cut 100,000 public sector jobs.
Let’s boil it down to one word: Personable. That’s why Kathleen hit a home run. Voters, even Progressive Conservatives, had a high regard for her. She practically sweat warmth which inspired voters to trust her and place their confidence in her hands.
Emery will fade off the national stage. He’s usually in Vancouver anyways. I suspect LPC officials will block Jodie Emery from running in Vancouver East.
Ours is a democratic party. Appearances would be ghastly for the leader were we to block aspiring candidates. In today’s world and in this incarnation of the party, we concentrate on not falling in Conservative traps. In short, the job remains to out organize one’s opponent.
Do the Liberals ignore Emory because he’s being critical of Harper, or do they come out publicly and just CRUSH him and his wife telling everyone they aren’t welcome in the Liberal party?
I think they can just ignore the Conservatives and Sun Media on Emery. I think Jodie could run for the Liberals in Vancouver East. Some brave soul has to go up against Libby Davies!
You may be right that there might be some of the “10 years is long enough, someone else’s turn” in the EKOS numbers, BUT a lot of people thought the same about the Ontario Liberals.
Campaign’s matter, and neither Mulcair nor Trudeau have experienced a 4 – 5 week long national campaign. Will that help them? Hurt them? We’ll know on election night 2015.
True
Plus its……..EKOS.
Generally, I would agree with you given Frank Graves’ history of pro Liberal leanings.
But he did predict a Liberal majority with a week to go in Ontario’s June election.
It`s Frank Graves….he ALWAYS predicts Liberal victories.
I have said the same thing myself. Conservatives will take solace in the fact that the Ontario Liberals were able to pull off a majority victory, but there are some key differences between the OLP and the CPC.
Even though the “it’s time for a change” numbers were high in Ontario, all of the polls before and during the election showed the PCs and Liberals neck and neck. Federally the CPC is way behind the Liberals. Also, it could be argued that by changing leaders the OLP embodied the change people were looking for, whereas the CPC is at this time going into the election with the same leader that has gotten them to where they are now.
In Ontario Wynne’s numbers were always better than her party’s, and she always had high personal appeal. The same can not be said of Harper. Hudak on the other hand never connected with voters and many people including his own party members didn’t like him. The same can not be said of Trudeau.
If you are looking for an Ontario comparison I think you would be better to look at the 2011 election.
Well, in both 2011 and 2014 the PC’s were leading in pretty much all the polls prior to the election, some by double digits. Were those numbers real or were they what traditionally happens between elections with people parking their support with the opposition. For the CPC, they tend to poll lower than they get on election night, and their support does traditionally fall during the summer months.
Hudak blew it in 2011’s campaign by trying to “out McGuinty” McGuinty.
Hudak blew it in 2014’s campaign with his announcement to cut 100,000 public sector jobs.
That’s why I said campaign’s matter.
Warren,
Let’s boil it down to one word: Personable. That’s why Kathleen hit a home run. Voters, even Progressive Conservatives, had a high regard for her. She practically sweat warmth which inspired voters to trust her and place their confidence in her hands.
Emery will fade off the national stage. He’s usually in Vancouver anyways. I suspect LPC officials will block Jodie Emery from running in Vancouver East.
DJ,
Ours is a democratic party. Appearances would be ghastly for the leader were we to block aspiring candidates. In today’s world and in this incarnation of the party, we concentrate on not falling in Conservative traps. In short, the job remains to out organize one’s opponent.
Except Mr. Trudeau and the party are currently facing a lawsuit for defamation and blocking Ms. Innes from running as a Liberal candidate.
There are also allegations people have been blocked from running against Andrew Leslie. The Liberals have also acclaimed many candidates.
You are joking or being facetious, right?
Do the Liberals ignore Emory because he’s being critical of Harper, or do they come out publicly and just CRUSH him and his wife telling everyone they aren’t welcome in the Liberal party?
I think they can just ignore the Conservatives and Sun Media on Emery. I think Jodie could run for the Liberals in Vancouver East. Some brave soul has to go up against Libby Davies!
In Van East Liberal Emery would be taking on NDP Davies.
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