Musings —09.30.2014 08:06 AM—
I and others got burned in Ontario’s election, big time, when we started to believe in this “likely voter” category. Right until election night on June 12, it made sense to me that “likely voters” are the demographic that we need to pay the most attention to – and, as such, the Ontario Liberals and Ontario PCs were therefore tied in voter intention.
Before I was going to go on air, however, I ran into Abacus’ David Coletto (now on his honeymoon – hi, David!) and asked him this: “Um, have you pollster guys worked out what this ‘likely voter’ category is, perchance?”
Said David: “No.”
The rest is history. The “likely voters” weren’t nearly as “likely” as we’d been told. A (very likeable) Kathleen Wynne and her Ontario Liberal election team won a majority when (a rather dislikable) Tim Hudak’s PCs snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with their 100,000 pink slips craziness.
Do we in the media, and sundry pollsters, learn from past mistakes? Ha! Surely you jest!
Thus, this morning, we have Angus Reid Global telling us that, among “likely voters,” the Harper Conservatives and Trudeau Liberals are now tied. Read it right here.
Me, I don’t believe it. Once bitten, twice shy. Fool me once, yadda yadda.
Trudeau is ahead, full stop. That’s what my gut is telling me, and I shouldn’t have ever stopped going with it. Hasn’t failed me, ever.