11.10.2014 11:48 AM

In Tuesday’s Sun: ten reasons why I think Trudeau will win

Justin Trudeau remains the man to beat. Like it or not, it’s a fact.

Herewith, ten reasons why:

  1. Liberals lead: Lately, Stephen Harper has performed well. On ISIS, on the attacks on the CAF, on the improving economy: he has looked Prime Ministerial. But polling averages don’t lie. Even now, the Liberals remain ahead of the ruling Conservatives. And in the past two years, Trudeau’s party has bested Harper’s in virtually every single poll.
  2. Trudeau wins: In all but a handful of surveys since he has become Liberal Party leader, Trudeau has been Canadians’ clear choice for Prime Minister. In some cases, he has bested Harper by as much as two-to-one. He is no flash in the proverbial pan. “Trudeau is for real,” says Ipsos’ Darrell Bricker.
  3. Harper, Mulcair lose: An average of recent polls conducted by analyst Eric Grenier suggests “about 17 per cent of Canadians would select the NDP leader, compared to 28 per cent for Harper and 31 per cent for Trudeau.” Given the fact that the Liberal Party was reduced to third party status less than four years ago – given how an experienced incumbent Prime Minister always should be doing against a rookie Liberal leader – that is extraordinary.
  4. Ad fail: The Tories continue to fight old wars. As with Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff, the Tories have spent millions on familiar-looking attack ads that sought to define Trudeau before he could define himself. They haven’t worked. Abacus Data says less than one in five younger Canadian believe Trudeau’s “in over his head.” Among older Canadians, it’s only one in three.
  5. Surplus not news: Everyone has known that the feds have been in a structural surplus since last year. The Tories’ plans to trumpet this achievement, in coming months, is unlikely to reverse the downward arc of public opinion.
  6. NDP fading: Tom Mulcair, says Brian Mulroney, is “the best Opposition leader since Diefenbaker.” The Parliamentary Press Gallery generally agree. But as Mulroney himself knows, the Commons is irrelevant to most Canadians. They see it as what is wrong with democracy, not what is right. In B.C., in Ontario, in the Atlantic provinces, nationally: the NDP brand is fading. And Tom Mulcair is no Jack Layton.
  7. Change chosen: A recent Ipsos poll confirmed that the Grits lead the Tories by almost ten percentage points. But, most significantly, the desire for change is immense. “Only one in three voters, “noted Ipsos, “believe the Harper government has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected, while 67 per cent believe that it is time for another party to take over.” Justin Trudeau is, overwhelmingly, the agent of the desired change.
  8. Money matters: For years, the Conservative Party has dominated political fundraising. They adapted, first and best, to changes ushered in by former Prime Minister Jean Chretien to clean up fundraising. But the Trudeau Liberals are catching up. By Summer’s end, the Grits’ 2014 haul was $3.7 million to the Tories’ $4.5 million. But a Maclean’s analysis found “the Liberals made significant gains in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia” – all provinces where the Conservatives have had fundraising strength.
  9. Scandal scars: The cumulative effect of serial scandals – Duffy, Brazeau, Wallin, robocalls – has not been calamitous to the Conservatives’ fortunes. Scandals seldom are. But there is plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest that the ethical missteps are sapping both morale and popularity. With the Duffy trial slated to begin soon, this will only get worse.
  10. War: On Remembrance Day of all days, we remember fallen heroes – but also that wars, while popular at the outset, are often far less so at the end. As the international effort against ISIS grinds on, will as many Canadians support it? Unlikely.

Could things change? Of course. But for now – as before – Justin Trudeau is on track to win.

 

78 Comments

  1. Bobby says:

    Lookin’ for a job running Justin’s war room?
    He should seriously consider you.

    • Craig says:

      Warren has actually been pretty tough at times on Justin Trudeau & the Liberals when they have made mistakes or done things he hasn’t agreed with, so it’s not as if he’s been just writing puff pieces praising everything JT & the Libs have done. The fact that he is writing a piece predicting success for JT is an indication that Trudeau & the Libs must be doing some things pretty well.

  2. Alex says:

    I would add an 11th reason: Trudeau is the most progressive leader. If we ignore party labels and take an honest look at the leaders, one can make a very strong case that Trudeau is to the left of Mulcair. In my life I have voted Green, Liberal and NDP. I am not married to a party, but I do support progressive values, and in my view Trudeau is the candidate for progressives.

    • Jnap says:

      Yes, Alex, your 11th reason is a positive one and I agree with it.

    • Jackal says:

      On social issues Mulcair and Trudeau are practically indistinguishable. On economic issues Mulcair is in favour of higher corporate taxes and the creation of a daycare program that would be the largest expansion of the federal government in a generation. There’s absolutely no comparison: Mulcair’s party is clearly to the left of Trudeau’s.

      • jeff316 says:

        Yes.

        These days “progressive” seems to be applied to social values only, which is advantageous for the party because it let’s them off the hook for progressive policies in other areas. Trudeau’s party is definitely to the right of Mulcair’s party and that’s not a criticism – that’s where they should be.

  3. Michael Bussiere says:

    Let’s add to this the evidence that Harper is just not the great political strategist we have been led to believe. The evidence is that he has painted himself into too many corners of his own making on too many occasions.

    • Terry Quinn says:

      Yes but Harper is a very dirty fighter although I think JT is just waiting for the dirt to fly before unleashing his own attacks which will be progressive and hard hitting.

      • Just Askin' says:

        What does that even mean? Politics is a dirty game and politicians of all stripes have their people play it. If you were a fan of Harper, you’d be saying the exact opposite. At the end of the day, Trudeau is the Liberal Party of Canada’s last great hope, and a lot is riding on his ability to succeed. A lot can happen during an election campaign, and if Trudeau ends up losing, the post mortem will be made up of Liberals ruing the day they chose an entitled rich kid over an accomplished astronaut.

        • jeff316 says:

          I think that Trudeau will do extremely well but, save for the last bit about entitlement vs spaceman, I think this post is very accurate.

          There is a lot riding on Trudeau. A lot riding on this next election. And a lot riding on Trudeau ending up in 24 Sussex and not Stornoway.

          The public`s view of Trudeau and the Liberals may be very different after a 4 year stint as opposition leader, as the NDP is finding out right now.

  4. G. McRae says:

    11. Campaigns Matter. JT has a habit of putting his foot in his mouth. People will start to pay attention during a campaign and the debates. He won’t do well which will make this closer than fan-boys and fan-girls think.

    Out of curiousity, where are all these seats going to come from to propel the 3rd party to the governing one?

    • Mary says:

      This fascinates me.

      JT is the one who has to fear a campaign….really?? JT has spoken to reporters and given interviews over the past years, and has occasionally stumbled. Harper has not been unscripted since the 2011 election, if he ever was during that campaign…

      I’m sure JT will say a few things that are illadvised, but Harper is the leader who will really step in it come campaign time…

      • Bobby says:

        ” JT has spoken to reporters and given interviews over the past years, and has occasionally stumbled.”

        Yep, and has given both the CPC and NDP enough ammo. to use in an election. He SHOULD fear a campaign.

      • G McRae says:

        Harper has campaigned for PM before with three wins. What makes you think he will step into it on his fourth try? JT’s communication strategy is say something and then spend the next week explaining what he really meant to say.

    • Craig says:

      Trudeau does sometimes make gaffes, and he does have to do a better job of preparing for the debates than Ignatieff did. But Trudeau isn’t a total novice to campaigns. He has won 2 elections in Montreal as an MP in what were tough elections for the Libs, plus ran a national leadership campaign last year and a lot of successful by-election campaigns since then. I also assume that his chief adviser Gerald Butts will make sure he is better-prepped for the debates than Iggy was in 2011.

      You do raise a valid point about the seat numbers. It may be difficult to go from 3rd to 1st in one election. That’s why a lot is still up in the air for all parties. But even if the Libs were just to take back Official Opposition or reduce Harper to a Minority, that would still be a big step compared to the mess Iggy left in 2011.

  5. Al in Cranbrook says:

    Here’s what Harper was doing this last week…

    http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/11/08/canada_china_sign_commercial_deals_worth_25_billion.html

    Here’s what Harper was doing two days ago…

    http://globalnews.ca/news/1661791/canada-to-establish-first-chinese-currency-hub-in-north-america/

    Here’s what Harper is doing today…

    http://business.financialpost.com/2014/11/10/transpacific-partnership-trade-deal-hopes-brighten-as-stephen-harper-other-leaders-break-logjams/

    Trying to imagine Trudeau working with Chinese, Japanese, S. Korean, Russian, and US leaders. I can’t. In fact, I don’t even want to go there!

    Someone recently said to me, Harper is the first PM in his lifetime that, in international affairs, didn’t cause him to feel embarrassed.

    Respectfully Warren, the one item missing from your list was; who is the best man for the job of PM of Canada, and all that entails?

    Indeed, I never see that on anyone’s list when it comes to reasons to support Justin Trudeau.

    • Al in Cranbrook says:

      Meanwhile, in Alberta (of all places) Trudeau came up with this gem…

      http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/politics/archives/2014/11/20141107-080857.html

      Cripes!!!

    • Tired of it All says:

      Oy. Al, this is simply evidence that he’s doing his job. It not evidence he’s doing it well. In case you are confused, when JT or Angry Tom ™ become PM, they’ll have a long list of international travel, as well. By your measure, they will be doing exactly the same job.

      Your friend, will all offense intended, is an ass. We’ve had an incredible number of very sophisticated leaders from both sides of the political divide do much better than this rube in the international sphere. And those were just the lackeys.

      You can tell he never left the country prior to ’06 and has no clue what constitutes international relations. Hells, even Chinless Joe Clark as both PM and subsequently External Affairs Minister was better. In case you hadn’t noticed, he thought so highly of the international portfolio, he appointed Maxime Bernier as Minister.

      Where’s the Dief when you need him?

      • Jnap says:

        Al in Cranb., don’t you realise that all those business deals were worked out long before PMSH arrived to take credit at an “official” signing?? He flip-flopped on whether or not to go to China this time, something the chair of our Asia-Pacific Foundation thought was somewhat insulting to China. Most leaders go to China much more often, if they themselves want to establish an understanding between major trading partners. i am sorry that you fall for the photo-ops and not the facts.

    • doconnor says:

      I would probably have trouble working with leaders of authoritarian governments, too. Harper seem very comfortable with it.

      “Harper is the first PM in his lifetime that, in international affairs, didn’t cause him to feel embarrassed.”

      Others would say that Harper is the first PM in his lifetime that, in international affairs, did cause him to feel embarrassed.

    • Maurice en Montreal says:

      Yo’Al! Your guy Harper has become a pariah on the international stage on environmental issues. Zero credibility and even less respect. Canada has become the laughing stock of the world when it comes to dealing with climate change. Oh, I forgot! According to you, human-caused climate change is a UN-IPCC hoax!

      • Al in Cranbrook says:

        Laughing stock with the climate change bedwetting crowd? You mean, because he didn’t involve the federal government in asinine crap like this…

        http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/straighttalk/archives/2014/11/20141110-073505.html

        I could come up with dozens more examples of such asinine crap from around the world that the Harper government also didn’t jam up Canadians’ collective asses. Crap that’s cost taxpayers’ in western nations literally tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars, and now threatens many governments with outright insolvency…not to mention tens of millions of people with artificially imposed poverty.

        Yeah, I really want to sign up for truckloads of this destructive lunacy for the next 5 years! You bet!

    • Kaspar Juul says:

      “Someone recently said to me, Harper is the first PM in his lifetime that, in international affairs, didn’t cause him to feel embarrassed.”

      Yeah theres a dude that says crazy things outside the train station on the way to work but I dont take his word at face value nor do I base an argument online on it.

      Opinion, anecdotes… some dude told me… is this what constitutes an effective argument at the University of Cranbrook?

    • Terry Quinn says:

      Hey Al, when harper was running for office and had never been outside of Canada in his life people were saying the same thing. He is only doing stuff that he is forced to do because he detests the Chinese but need their votes here.

      JT actually scores points when he makes gaffs. People finally think they have a human being running for office and not a robotic freak show like Harper.

    • Craig says:

      Harper is trying to be the big international statesman now, but do you realize he had no knowledge of other countries when he became leader? As Lawrence Martin wrote in his book, Harper hadn’t travelled anywhere outside of Canada except across the border to Montana! Trudeau has been traveling all over the world and meeting leaders and communicating with other cultures & people in other languages from the time he was a kid with his Dad to the present day. Trudeau had visited more countries and met more people by the time he was 12, than Harper had by the time he was 40.

  6. Matt Guerin says:

    I hope you’re right.

    Total NDP collapses in most byelections (and probably again next week in Whitby-Oshawa) will confirm the NDP’s weakness in English Canada. If Trudeau does as well as he’s been doing and Quebecers deduce voting NDP is just dividing the anti-Conservative vote, they could swing behind the Liberals to finally beat Harper.

    As for Al in Cranbrook’s comments, most Canadians don’t generally vote based on foreign policy and obscure trade agreement issues. For those who do, those who like Harper’s foreign policy “achievements” will be swamped by those angry with Harper’s actions sabotaging climate change action abroad and other international issues for years! I and most progressives want that embarrassment to end asap.

    • Just Askin' says:

      Yet I’m sure Solyndra, Ivanpah and Al Gore’s see-through carbon credit schemes aren’t an embarrassment to so-called “progressives”? Energy diversity is logical and would be embraced by all if influential progressives told the truth instead of shilling for alternative energy companies, many of which are owned by the same people as the oil and gas companies.

  7. MississaugaPeter says:

    WK,

    All 10 points are logical and make sense.

    And JT is definitely right now the front runner in a long distance race.

    But G. McRae stating 1. Elections matter and Al’s 2. Most older folks feel Harper is a better Canadian representative on the international stage also make sense.

    I would also throw in 3. Polls often are not accurate – you know the recent provincial elections – and 4. What we consider logical thinking isn’t always at the ballot box and my official belief: 5. Nothing will be set in stone until after the French and English debates.

    But be warned by a friend, unless you are an anomaly, the folks in charge of the bandwagon consider you too old to be jumping on.

  8. Jnap says:

    Warren will never be too old
    — for anything!!

  9. James Smith says:

    Good points but I’ll take issue with your #3 & #10
    #3 PM, PM had defeated the deficit & had a surplus & we all know what the present PM did with that. Crowing about surpluses could boomerang.
    #10 Although the whole Warrior Canada thing has some supporters however; many, many more Canadians are more comfortable with our role as Peacekeepers
    You are correct, incumbency is an advantage, but can also be a disadvantage if the TIME FOR A CHANGE meme is the ballot question.

    As Mr K points out correctly, Angry Tom just keeps making things worse for his party, if T4aC takes hold, one could see the Dippers go back to Audrey McLaughlin territory.

  10. ottlib says:

    It is true that polls are not a predictor of future events but it is also true that the polls have shown Mr. Trudeau leading in almost every measure for around 20 straight months.

    That is a very solid trend that cannot be so easily dismissed as it “is just the polls”.

    As well, a good economy and a sizable surplus did not save Mr. Martin when Canadians decided they wanted a change.

    If the desire for change is strong at the time of the next election all Mr. Trudeau needs to do is take a page from Mr. Harper’s 2006 playbook and appear non-threatening and he should be able ride that wave of desire for change to 24 Sussex.

  11. P. Mueler says:

    1. & 2. I see you have fallen off the poll wagon again. BC? Ontario?

    3. Mulcair. And. the. Bloc. And. the. Greens. Splitting. the. vote.

    4. Younger Canadians don’t vote. (Thanks Russell Brand.)

    5. Goodies-in-pocket is an effective plan.

    6. The core of the NDP is a fanatical secular religion. They will never, repeat never, accept anything but full socialism. Paul “laissez-faire” Martin did not help matters.

    7. Another poll; see 1. & 2.

    8. Follow the money.

    9. JT cut loose the whole Liberal Senate a/k/a senate liberals. Why?

    10. Is there a true understanding of the Nation of Islam? Liberal Prime Minister Mackenzie King was impressed by Hitler: “My sizing up of the man as I sat and talked with him was that he is really one who truly loves his fellow-men, and his country, and would make any sacrifice for their good,” (Diary, June 29, 1937) King saw similarities between himself and Hitler: “As I talked with him, I could not but think of Joan of Arc. He is distinctly a mystic …. He is a teetotaller and also a vegetarian; is unmarried, abstemist in all his habits and ways.” (Diary, June 29, 1937)

    11. One must throw everything one has at it, all the time, for a long time, for a chance of victory.

  12. EB says:

    Re: 10.

    I would think the risk to Harper is very high on this. If the mission goes awry, isn’t Harper who wears this, in spades? If Canada accidently bombs a hospital or a school. If the mission goes beyond the 6 month commitment, any number of negative factors come to mind.

    I think Harper is at greater risk…

  13. Greg from Calgary says:

    I hope they win or more to the point Harper is defeated. Until someone can tell me why a soldier injured in war either physically or mentally so they are unable to work gets a 300K one time payout which, doesn’t last long and, that idiot Rob Anders who did sweet fuck all other than sleep and tell off vets gets 95K a year pension they have lost my vote.

    ABC

  14. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    He wins:

    1. Because Trudeau won’t pull an Adrian Dix.

  15. Lance says:

    We’ve seen Harper’s and Mulcair’s policies on childcare and people have discussed the merits and drawbacks of each. What about Trudeau’s childcare policy? Or policy on anything substantive?

    It’s easier to run ahead when you’re not putting out anything that can be criticized. Maybe when Trudeau takes some risks like the other two leaders and exposes himself to criticism that might erode that “lead”, then I might take him more seriously. That, and if stops saying stuff that makes him look like an utter dolt.

  16. Lance says:

    Additionally –

    Though these poll results are more sustained, we’ve seen polling “leads” go *poof* on election night before plenty enough times. After his first term Mulroney looked like he was heading for defeat, but pulled it out of the bag. No reason that can’t happen again just as easily with a strong campaign.

    Wynne’s Liberals were beset by billion dollar boondoggle scandals, so we can see that scandal aren’t always a deal breaker. Nor, necessarily, (and/or evidently) is a long incumbency.

    Trudeau’s and Harper’s leadership index are close enough for Mulcair’s third place showing to make a difference in splitting the vote on the left. Harper is the obvious beneficiary. Trudeau and Mulcair will be battling over seats in Quebec that Harper never had a chance in taking and which he didn’t need anyway to win a majority. Harper will thus have a freer hand in campaign spending in the ROC while Trudeau and Mulcair bloody themselves over Quebec. Also, the new riding distributions will more likely favour the Tories.

    We’ve seen attack ads that were declared failures, yet resonated as central themes of contention later and confirmed a perception – “just visiting”, “a tax on everything”, and “not a leader”. They were bites that initially didn’t seem to have much effect, but like a zombie bite that didn’t seem like much of an injury at first, killed the recipient with a slow infection.

    It would be foolish to not take ANY opponent seriously. Trudeau’s handlers have built him a big house of cards that looks impressive, but has nothing holding it up. Start bumping the table with an election campaign where Trudeau finally has to start keep the card house standing and THEN we’ll see what happens.

    • ottlib says:

      I do get a kick out of Conservatives pointing to a Liberal victory in Ontario to explain why the Liberals will not win during a national election.

      The hope and desire that Mr. Trudeau pulls a Hudak is palpable and it is a tacit admission by them that the Conservative Party is going to have a great deal of trouble hanging on come election time.

      • Lance says:

        I didn’t say that it was the be-all-end-all comparison; I was just making the point that scandal isn’t necessarily a deal breaker on it’s own, nor is a long incumbency.

        I do get a kick of Liberals making an automatic assumption that I’m a Conservative. I find it so endearing. 😀

  17. Right Side says:

    A few weeks you were “appalled” by the quality of Eric Grenier’s writing and criticized his math, and now you are citing his work in your Sun column. Odd.

  18. James Smith says:

    May I make an off topic observation?
    Nov 11th & the Calgary Herald has always had a special obit / remembrance section for Vets and those who died in the line of duty.
    This is the first year they didn’t call my Mother in Law about booking an ad. She placed one anyway & it is only one of a very small handful.
    No need to wonder why newspapers are in trouble, they are on the down slope of a tipping point.

  19. Right Side says:

    Hey, I’ve been an avid reader of this site since “Stock’s Stupid Statements.” 🙁

  20. Brachina says:

    People are under estimating Mulcair, Mulcair actually tends to have a higher net approval rating in many polls then Trudeau, Mulcair is smarter then Trudeau, more talented then Trudeau, better policies then Trudeau, works harder then Trudeau.

    And yes it appears that the Anti Trudeau ads aren’t working, but niether were the ads against Dion and Iggy until in the middle of an election, the ads aren’t meant to go off yet.

    And the NDP’s popularity is higher under Mulcair then it ever was under Jack Layton until 2011, the NDP has more incumbents then it ever has, more money, and the title of official opposition leader, and outside certain parts of Montreal from what I hear its better organized in Quebec, the bloq has a clown for leader as well which is an opportunity to pick up more votes in Quebec.

    As for byelections, Andrea Horwath and Andrian Dix both rocked byelections, so those predict nothing.

    It would be a massive tactical error to under estimate Mulcair. Which I’m hoping the Liberals make.

    • allen says:

      Jack Layton won over the soft lefty liberals over the years and the NDP popularity vote increased by a million. In 2006 Jack torpedoed the Martin minority government and soft lefty liberals went to the NDP, and he created PM Harper because his strategy was to obliterate the Liberals. In 2011 the Liberals tanked with Iggy and Jack launched the Orange Crush wave in Quebec!

      The Mulcair NDP must attack Trudeau’s popularity to survive as the OOP in the HOCs, and together with the CPC attack ads they will slapchop Justin into quivering bits of liberal leftovers.

      As for the CPC early attack ads, they were just ‘meme’ ads intended to bury a ‘mind virus’ into the minds of Canadians to fester; a dash of doubt about Justin. The real attack ads will emerge en mass during the official election campaign next October (or sooner)!

    • allen says:

      The biggest attackers of Trudeau will be the NDP, who will trash Trudeau and then package together the Cons with the Libs ….. tweedle dee.. tweedle dumb….!

  21. Windsurfer says:

    Check out the CBC Web Site where they talk about the environmentalists who crashed Trudeau’s speech. He let them talk.

    On the CBC blog comments, the Con Bash Brigade is out in droves. They hate him.

    However, via this and the CBC and other blogs, the election will not be won. Where will the next election be won? It’s not clear, except that this undercurrent of Canadians wanting change is palpable – so it could get dirty, down & disgusting.

    All comments welcome.

    • allen says:

      Yes, the next election will get down and dirty because NDP and CPC attack ads will paint Trudeau as a Quebec supremacist who would divide the nation as PM…. Quebec versus the ROC. Justin has made many disparaging comments about the ROC while praising Quebec, on Quebec TV and his very words will be used against him in the ROC. It will be like poison and will kill Justin in the ROC. The Trudeaumania bubble will pop and Justin will fizz flat !!

  22. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    I would argue that what Justin needs is the meanest, vicious, hard-hearted SOB that the party can come up with. One name instantaneously comes to mind — but I don’t feel like getting sued for libel.

    Pretend it’s in a boxing ring and go at it at least once a month. Let the guy take you apart systematically and don’t stop until you have what it takes to verbally drop him to the floor.

  23. allen says:

    allen …. allen-mcintoshapple@yahoo.com

    But Warren, what if the Cons play the anti-Quebec card during the election campaign pointing out that a vote for the local Liberal or NDP candidate will by default mean another prime minister from anti-Canada Quebec?

    In the 2011 election the Cons won big in the ROC and received their majority without the need for Quebec MPs. I suspect the Cons will point out that the home province of the next PM will be crucial to the prosperity and unity of Canada.

    IOW, Canadians in the ROC will reject another PM from Quebec for obvious reasons…… and notwithstanding your 10 reasons to the contrary. The Cons will play and replay Justin’s claim that “Canada belongs to Quebec!”. What then?

    Also, the Mulcair NDP will fight viciously to stop the Justin Liberals from hopscotching over them into government because the Liberals must perish if the NDP ever hopes to form government. Jack Layton knew this when he torpedoed the Martin minority government and opened the path for the Harper governments. A Justin Liberal government would be the end of the NDP who will become a greater threat than the Cons.

    • doconnor says:

      I double such a discriminatory attack would be effective in Canada.

      • allen says:

        You may “double[sic]” or ‘doubt’ an anti-Quebec sentiment in the ROC would defeat both Trudeau and Mulcair but you ignore Harper’s strength in the ROC as shown in the 2011 election. Nationally the Cons won 39% of voters but in the ROC (excluding Quebec) they won 48% of the vote!

        Now as the sitting government, the Cons must win over the voters with governing results, while the opposition parties only need to make shiny promises and gush with charisma. Now with the Economic & Fiscal Update, the Cons will be able to say “Promises made, promises kept!”

        As for Cons reduced to their 30% base, that can easily grow to 40% when Canadians are in the voting booth and must decide between pre-election economic gifts or opposition social goodies with higher taxes!

  24. Tim says:

    ABH – Anyone but Harper. Problem is the NDP and the Libs (and Green’s potentially) stand to F*CK it all up again if the cons get by with vote splitting. So sick of this. No wonder people are apathetic, their damn votes don’t do anything under this electoral system.

    • Just Askin' says:

      Your assumption is that the people who support the Liberals, NDP and Greens are the same. If the Liberals are centrists and the NDP and Greens are lefties, how could that be the case? Liberals are supposed to stand in the middle and bleed votes from the left and right.

  25. If I were you, I would adjust my view of politics away from a largely irrelevant ‘left right’ spectrum. The majority of voters do not self identify that way, so why do so many people insist of applying the labels? If you want to know what motivates people you have to actually look at issues and policies.

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