01.20.2015 08:10 AM

Battleground: can the Grits get SW Ontario back?

10 Comments


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    Michael says:

    It will be very difficult, and I don’t see it happening this election.

    Not only are large areas of the region small c conservative, the NDP has steadily over the last 3 elections been gaining in vote share. In many ridings of the SW, the Liberals were third in the last election.

    Liberals should take off their rose coloured glasses and realize what an enormous task it will be to go from 38 seats to government.


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      Lance says:

      Liberals should take off their rose coloured glasses and realize what an enormous task it will be to go from 38 seats to government.

      Agreed – to a point. Not a majority government or a large minority government in their own right I would say……..but perhaps enough of a seat gain to form a coalition government?

      The interesting question I wonder is – would the Liberals be more or less likely to go along with a coalition depending upon whether they are the junior or senior partner?


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        Terence Quinn says:

        I say remember 1993


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    jeff316 says:

    Agreed with Michael. The Liberals have a good shot at regaining many former strongholds but southwestern Ontario, where the electorate is increasingly split between the Conservatives and the NDP, is not one.


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    Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    PET, Mulroney. Did anyone see those waves coming?

    It starts with a gut wrenching collective decision that now is the time for change. Even worse for the incumbent government, that feeling can really take off to the point that all that matters is to throw the bums out.


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      jeff316 says:

      But isn’t that kind of the point? That people have been announcing/predicting the wave for the past three years?


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      Michael says:

      Ronald,

      I was around for both of those elections. Both times there was a real palpable sense that it was time for a change. This year, not so much. At least not amongst Joe and Jan e Frontporch. The feeling is only shared by Liberals and Dippers. I wish it weren’t so, but it is.

      The feeling I get right now is more like 2004. The feeling is more like, we aren’t crazy about the incumbent, but we’re also not sure if the alternative is ready for prime time. My real sense is that it will be a CPC minority, or if everything falls into place a very slim majority.


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        Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Michael,

        For whatever it’s worth, my gut is thinking 1979, or more recently, 2006. Call it a very narrow vote of confidence for the aspiring prime minister. If the party can stay five points ahead of the CPC, IMHO, Justin will get to form a minority government.


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    Ty says:

    Random thoughts:

    -The NDP gains were there, but didn’t result in a lot of MPs. There’s going to be the same problems that hit them in the 905. The party’s still pretty threadbare, and there’s not a lot of presence. Just as an example, Haldimand-Norfolk saw a perennial NDP name on ballot get 10,000 votes. Barring some disaster at the debate, that’s not happening this time.

    -Rural areas are probably too irritated at the provincial Liberals to get decent grassroots support for a ground game. When people like Dave Akin refer to the 1993 wave, one of the major factors was voter anger at Mulroney motivating a ground game and then letting incumbency take them a few cycles.

    I’d expect some moderate Liberal gains (London North, Brantford, 2/3 in Kitchener), the NDP to hold their usual haunts, and the Conservatives to have most of the seats. It’s the 905 and Quebec that’s going to decide things.


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    monkey says:

    I think the Liberals can definitely win the majority of seats in Ontario but so can the Tories. Essentially most of the urban core ridings except for some heavily unionized ones like Hamilton and Windsor should swing back to the Liberals, while rural Southern Ontario will stay Conservative. The suburbs and smaller cities are where the battleground will happen. In terms of Southwestern Ontario, I think the Liberals will likely re-capture London North Centre and perhaps London West, but I would be quite shocked if they take any of the rural or mixed urban/rural ridings. The Tories tend to run up the margins in rural areas meaning it will be difficult to pick up any riding that is partially rural. Besides the 905 suburbs are going to be where the real battle is going to be. I expect the Tories to lose most or all of their 416 ridings, while hold those beyond the suburban/rural fringe while everything between Steeles Avenue to the countryside and likewise Humber River in the West and Rouge River in the East to the countryside is up for grabs.

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