01.05.2015 01:10 PM

I trust you now agree with those of us who think the election will be in the Spring

Your Honour, we present this exhibit!

He’s clearing the decks. Could be for the Fall, sure, but I still think the Spring.

Who’s with me?

30 Comments


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    Joe says:

    Other than he would give his opponents something to beat him up with(he can’t be trusted to keep his own election law) there is no purpose to call an election early. On the other hand he had to get rid of Fantino sooner or later and much better to do it sooner than later regardless of the election timing.


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    Jerry says:

    He’s at Rideau Hall now for some reason, ie a winter election before Duffy speaks


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      Kev says:

      Harper and Company don’t give two craps about Duffy.


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    Lance says:

    After announcing, with a puffed out chest, what is going to be a good news budget with lots of “goodies”, it WOULD be a good time before all the Duffy shit starts hitting the fan.

    He didn’t care about prorogation, and his government was cited with contempt; I don’t think he really cares about going before the fixed date. Obviously in the end, neither did anyone else. The Duffy shit…..THATS what he will be most worried about.


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      doconnor says:

      He ignored the fixed date law for the 2008 election. Why would he, or anyone else, care about it this time?


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        Elisabeth Lindsay says:

        That was a minority government.


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        Lance says:

        Come on…….how realistic is a fixed election date in a minority government that can be defeated at any time.


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          doconnor says:

          If the government loses confidence and no other leader is willing to be Prime Minister, then the election date law can be ignored. That wasn’t the case in 2008. Harper called an election out of the blue.


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    Paul McKeever says:

    Warren:

    Even since the federal and provincial (Ontario) governments passed fixed election date legislation, politicos and journalists have openly wagered that the government will have the GG/LGG drop the writ prior to the Legislated date. Federally, the applicable legislation reads:

    “56.1 (1) Nothing in this section affects the powers of the Governor General, including the power to dissolve Parliament at the Governor General’s discretion.

    (2) Subject to subsection (1), each general election must be held on the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year following polling day for the last general election, with the first general election after this section comes into force being held on
    Monday, October 19, 2009.”

    The fixed date was legislated in force as of 2007.

    Given that the GG/LGG typically rubber stamps whatever the first minister advises him/her to do, I’m not blind to the mechanics of it should the FM choose to have an early election. With a minority government, the FM need merely put forward an unacceptable budget bill and wait for it to be defeated. With a considerable majority, party discipline makes a non-confidence situation nigh impossible, thus eliminating the desired pretext for dissolution. Short of the FM just saying “To heck with the fixed date legislation my government introduced, I’m going to advise the GG/LGG to dissolve”, I’m not sure what options a FM would have if he/she wanted to trigger an early election.

    If the current PM wants to trigger an election prior to the fixed October 2015 election date, what do you see as the reason that the PM would give for advising the GG to dissolve Parliament?

    And consider this: if it’s okay to disregard the spirit of ones own fixed election date legislation, doesn’t that imply that it’s okay to disregard the spirit of a law that – for example – would purport to commit the PM to advising the GG to appoint to the Senate a person elected by the electorate to be the next person appointed? In other words, if one can call an early election in the face of fixed election date legislation, doesn’t that stand as a precedent to appoint to the Senate someone who has not been “elected” by the general electorate instead of someone who has been elected?

    I think calling an early election could back-fire for the governing party, given the fixed date legislation, and the end served by violating its spirit.

    I buy the beer/coffee if its prior to October.

    P.


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    Paul McKeever says:

    Addendum: Might this quotation not again be the stuff of discussion were the PM to call an early election?

    “Fixed election dates prevent governments from calling snap elections for short-term political advantage. They level the playing field for all parties and the rules are clear for everybody.” – Stephen Harper, May 26, 2006.


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    Christian says:

    That and Steve has now agreed to meet with Wynne. So yeah. I’m with you Warren. Spring election it looks like!


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    Patrick Deberg says:

    Can’t get enough of that wonderful Duff!!


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    Steven says:

    An April election also fits in with the recent rolling barrage of “Apres moi, le deluge” HarperCon ads.

    Nothing like reminding the Tim Horton’s masses about all the tax breaks they think they will get just before tax filing time.


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    Nicole says:

    I think his meeting with Wynne today is no coincidence either.


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    Mary says:

    Harper will wrap up a repeal of the fixed-date election in his 2015 Omnibus Budget bag o goodies. Then there will be no ‘law’ for him to be accused of violating.


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    Chris says:

    There is simply no credible possibility that the election will be other than in the fall. I remember hating the endless speculation about when an election would be called. I thought the new law would end it. It has reduced it but not eliminated it. (I agree Harper bears some responsibility for this). But the election will be in the fall. No perceived tactical advantage to an early election would be worth the hit he’d take for breaking his word. And the more the Liberals claims he’s going to break his word, the better Harper will look when he does not.


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    Jeff says:

    I don’t think there is any chance it happens in the spring.

    Frankly, I am surprised how much people have been musing about it considering there is zero real proof or hints that it could happen.


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    GFMD says:

    A lot of people seem to be over-thinking this fixed-election date stuff. They’re making the common mistake of overestimating the average CPC voter. The PMO could just say “we never meant fixed eledtion dates to apply if the election was called on a Tuesday”, and it will be a non-issue for them. I mean, if you voted for the CPC mostly on the basis it was going to restore good parliamentary conduc, you pretty much stopped in 2008 and the party figured they didn’t have to worry about you anymore.


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      Jon Adams says:

      Exactly. For a lot of people out there, the CPC just needs to say we were always at war with Eurasia and leave it at that.


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    CSM says:

    I have been arguing for a spring election for the last 18 months.

    I have even made a few bets. That should assure a fall election. 🙂


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    Al in Cranbrook says:

    The longer J.T. gets to strut his absolute lack of substance of any kind whatsoever, the better.

    Six of us having a workplace coffee break Saturday, someone wondered what 2015 holds in store.

    I mentioned we could end up with a Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Everyone, to a man, winced, to put it politely.


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      Kaspar Juul says:

      Well stop the presses! Six guys on a workplace coffee break winced!!!!

      Well if that isnt evidence that the world just hates Justin Trudeau than I dont know what is!


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    Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    So de Blasio thinks he’s got it bad. Harper should visit CFB Valcartier to see how many votes he doesn’t have a prayer of getting…


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    Ted Heighington says:

    I’m with you. But I think it will be called sooner than spring.


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    Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    If Harper gets a polling bounce into a respectable lead in Ontario, he will go in the spring. If his lead is within the margin of error in that province, he will delay it until the fall.


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    Kev says:

    Go check out the list of CPC candidates in place in Quebec.

    The election will be on October 19, 2015.


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    Beth Higginson says:

    All the Conservatives are saying that it will be October


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    Brad says:

    The majority of Canadians probably are unaware there are fixed election dates.


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    Ridiculosity says:

    Spring, without a doubt.


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    Eleanor Grant says:

    ELECTION CAN’T BE BEFORE MAY 1 because that’s when new riding boundaries come into effect. Candidates are nominated for new ridings. Harper will go as soon as he can after that, to blindside opposition. IFF he can find a way to get Duffy trial postponed:)

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