01.12.2015 09:19 AM

The only ones saying “Fall election” are using PMO talking points

Case in point, right here.

Open thread, folks. Indulge in wild speculation, baseless conjecture and wilful rumour-mongering. I’ve been doing so for 15 years, and it pays handsomely.

(Well, actually, it doesn’t pay at all, but it’s fun.)

8 Comments


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    MgS says:

    Harper will call an election when he believes he can win. Period. The October date is a red herring – Harper has already shown that the law setting that date is a bad joke.

    I’ve been saying that there are 3 open scenarios:

    1. Early election to take advantage of a dead cat bounce in the polls and avoid the awkward timing of the Duffy trial

    2. Late fall election if, and only if, his polling numbers are in majority territory

    3. Hold out until the constitutional mandate expires in 2016

    3a. If still polling in the toilet at that time, he may approach parliament for an extension under the “wartime clause”

    Harper is an opportunist – he will call an election when he thinks he has the upper hand – period. There are a number of options that he could pursue, and it will be done solely on the basis of whether or not it’s to his advantage.


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    Lee Jacobs says:

    2 factors for me – job numbers and oil prices. Harper wants to be viewed as a good “manager” of the economy and both of these hurt him right now. Unless we see a bump in both I think he will roll the dice and hope they improve by the fall.


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    MississaugaPeter says:

    Billion Dollar Boondoggle

    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/27/legal-fees-harper-conservatives_n_5043663.html

    +

    http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/12/14/ottawas_ad_contracts_reach_nearly_500_million_over_past_five_years.html

    Now if only the pot smoker could get this across coherently to the general public.

    ELECTION CALLED RIGHT AFTER SPRING BUDGET (see Harris 1999) and shortest length possible (36 days)


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    Jeff says:

    Everyone wants Harper to break his election law so bad. Then provide the only true evidence that it might happen saying he has done it before in a minority government situation.

    I don’t see it and I also don’t agree there will be ZERO repercussions if he does do it. You can say the public doesn’t care all you want, but there will be some people who do. He is going to need every vote he can get and there is no excuse to break the election law in a majority government situation. I think it would look horrible on the government.


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    Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    The more the economy softens over the coming months, the more likely they will go in the spring.


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    Brad says:

    If a few thousand people lose their jobs in Alberta, that will be offset by the rest of Canada who are enjoying low gas prices.

    I paid $98 to fill my pickup, used to cost me close to $160. But I’d never vote for Hapwr anyways.


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    Ridiculosity says:

    Absolute proof that a spring election is coming?

    My MP left a flyer in my mailbox today with the handwritten note, “Sorry I missed you.”

    Only one reason he’s braving this frigid weather to canvass homes and it isn’t altruism…


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    Tiger says:

    Expect a fall election because it lets the CPC spend its money outside the writ period. And also the PM is ramping up to run as someone who keeps his promises.

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