— Musings —04.30.2015 09:39 AM
— Musings —04.30.2015 09:39 AM
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What surprises me is that usually mid-term polls favour the opposition yet have almost no bearing on the eventual outcome of the election. It seems we all hate the government until its time to vote then we all love the government. Or we all love the opposition until its time to vote then we all hate the opposition. However I still think it is too far from the next election to have any concern over the polls whether Liberal, Conservative or NDP.
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This poll suggests that the LPC peaked at 38% last September and then plateaued in the 32-35% range and is now declining down to 28%.
Perhaps that’s why the LPC released their recent attack ad on government ad spending in an attempt to bolster their sagging popularity after internal polling also revealed they were falling off the plateau.
https://www.liberal.ca/hockey-playoffs-ad-2015/
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The sad part is that the asses who created this spread alienated the folks who could help them reverse their spread.
When you get know-it-alls and hipsters run your campaign, this happens. They did it to Gerard Kennedy (who every poll claimed was the most popular choice by the public for premier during the Ontario Leadership race). And now they are doing it to Justin Trudeau.
Now Trudeau better do some serious kick ass apologizing to bring the adults back into the campaign. But he probably won’t. Third place once again.
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Apologize? Don’t hold your breath.
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Polls don’t mean anything unless they show the party we support is ahead. Then it’s an accurate reading of the mood of the electorate. If shows the party we support is losing, then obviously the methodology is flawed and/or the pollster is a shill for the party that’s ahead. It’s science.
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Thank you for the most accurate analysis of poll reading I have seen recently.
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I think you meant the CPC have 8 point lead over Liberals, CPC having an 8 point lead over CPC would make for a very confusing poll 🙂
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Apologies. See excuse above.
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The value of polls pretty much rank with National Enquirer Photoshop stories today. They can’t collect enough reliable data from a wide enough audience to merit any significant value.
That said, I predict that Justin Trudeau will not do well in the upcoming election because Canadians will see (a) too much family legacy and/or (b) too much similarity to Harper, as all of his positions are Harper-Lite.
If Alberta swings NDP, a federal minority (majority?) is Mulcair’s to lose.
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If AB goes NDP and with ON Liberal, will the AB and ON electorate swing to the Harper Conservatives to counterbalance their previous voting choices? It’s just smart politics to keep the provincial and federal politicians going at each others throats, behind the scene of course.
What is the advantage of having an AB and federal NDP governments; or ON and federal LPC governments? Doesn’t make sense!
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Most Albertans trust Notley because she’s an Albertan. Most Albertans don’t trust Mulcair because he’s just another eastern politician who’s openly hostile towards our biggest industry and uses Alberta as a whipping boy for quick easy votes in Quebec. There will never be a federal NDP Orange Crush here. Not this year anyway.
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There’s enough seats in Edmonton that would make it hard for the Conservatives to hold their majority.
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Provincial NDP popularity based on Rachel Notley’s personal approval ratings, isn’t necessarily going to translate into federal seats. The federal NDP just isn’t a factor here.
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The provincial NDP wasn’t a factor either until the election was called.
Mulcair’s favorables are outpacing his party.
You’re actually pointing out ways that Mulcair and Notley are similar.
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Notley is fresh faced, positive and likable. Albertans trust her. Mulcair is old, grumpy and hates Alberta. Albertans don’t like or trust him or the Federal NDP. Never have.
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Even Notley distances herself from Mulcair.
http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/05/01/mulscare-ndps-notley-says-thomas-mulcair-has-no-influence-in-alberta-campaign/#.VUPuVHJOWJd
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Of course she does she’s a politician!
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She’s a politician, and she probably supports Mulcair, but she also knows the man is poison here.
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And we oldies remember her Dad. Far from a wild eyed socialist. More like a Progressive Conservative.
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Well my guess is that the “we won’t go neg” stance will be thrown out the window if the numbers don’t improve over the summer. Which is fine. For some reason I’m looking forward to a low down dirty nasty smearing slimey now-its-personal kind of campaign. I want to see ads that go to a dark place and appall the pundits but stick in the public mind.
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American-style attack ad Canadian election campaign? Yummy!
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Angus Reid poll 1.5 months before the 1993 federal election (in which the PCs were reduced from a majority to 2 seats):
PC 35 Lib 37 NDP 8 BQ 8 Ref10
Other polls showed the PCs ahead.
So anyway…
(also, Warren, I think you need to edit the title of this post, because one of the CPCs means LPC)
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That’ll teach me to post when I’m supposed to be paying attention to something else.
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Abacus data suggests that the Cons are trending upwards while the Libs are trending downwards and the current change is due to shifting popularity between the two parties. These trends are fragile, and one misstep by either leader can reverse the trends. It’s a political tightrope now.
What is of more interest is the NDP standing at 24% and how much of that can be attributed to popularity in Quebec. I assume the NDP number has not been affected by the Lib-Con flip flop.
Mulcair’s challenge will be to convince Quebecers to stay with their NPD (NDP in Quebec) candidates. His strategy must be to convince BQ voters to switch to the NPD if they want an effective voice in Ottawa. Mulcair must also fight off Con slight rising popularity in Quebec which will be a prime battleground in the next election; along with Ontario.
Homies Justin et Thomas will be fighting tooth and nail in Quebec and will be locked like two snakes devouring each others tails. Mulcair despises Justin and Quebec Liberals.
The Greens will continue to bleed votes away from the Libs which frustrates the Lib campaign efforts. Once again, the short strokes at the end of the election campaigning will determine if the Cons will win another majority, or get sucked down to minority status. Gonna be an interesting campaign dynamics!
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If the NDP actually manage to pull off the coup pollsters say they might in Alberta than Mulcair’s job gets way easier (yes I know, 2012, polls, ‘its-all-in-Edmonton’, etc., etc.).
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Except the Liberals have been trending down since October 2014.
This could be a rogue poll, we’ll have to wait and see. But if true, and considering where the CPC gains have come from, the Liberals will have to go back to the drawing board with their messaging.
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They need to go back to the drawing board for a leader. Should have been someone with quality, like the astronaut.
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Or make Mulcair’s job more difficult because an Alberta NDP government would have to help cure the Alberta-caused “Dutch Disease” inflicted on Quebec and Ontario according to NDP Mulcair!
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Maybe. But with only 5 months between the Alberta and federal election (4 months of actual governing once transition is taken into account) there won’t be any time for any economic diversification policies to kick in. BUT in the meantime, Mulcair can point to the growth potential of the NDP beyond Quebec ( i.e.: saying something like “the NDP knocked off the 44 year old PC dynasty in Conservative heartland and we can do it federally”) and try to associate Harper with all the skeletons and dirty laundry being hauled out of the PC’s closet that they’ve been hiding for 44 years. Could be good!
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Prentice: “Beam me up, Stephen!”
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If “the trend is your friend”, I think JT needs some new friends, pronto.
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Well, that’s interesting.
I’m a bit skeptical of the BC numbers in that poll(CPC 36, LPC 19, NDP 16), the poll has the CPC lead there as second only to Alberta, and that’s pretty out of whack with everyone else, who have a three way race. The trend is probably somewhat real though– it’s similar to what forum is reporting, but Ekos shows very little trend.
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You shouldn’t be. The province has always been pretty conservative outside downtown Vancouver and the Island. Federally anyway.
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Stick a fork in him.
the upcoming attacks from CPC back room are being focus-group tested right now.
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Warren,
When Michael was leader, we started out with good numbers. Then came just visiting and the bottom fell out of our support. Couple with that Michael’s controversial views on torture and we were blown away.
In Justin’s case, what’s the problem? It obviously is personality based coupled with perceived leadership skills. Michael threw them all overboard, which I supported. Trouble is, it changed nothing.
Rather than trimming the sails of Team Trudeau, they need to add political heft beginning with Herle and a number of others from the fifty-plus set. This is political do or die time. Justin, get it right — and quick.
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Herle’s been advising them from the start.
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Herle doesn’t have a very good track record stretching back to Paul Martin, not sure how helpful he could be.
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He did a good job for Wynne.
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Well, it didn’t hurt to have opponents like Hudak who shot himself in both feet and Horwath who veered to the centra, abandoning her traditional support base.
Harper isn’t Hudak. Mulcair isn’t Horwath. National campaigns are different from provincial campaigns.
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Should read centre
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I certainly agree Harper isn’t Hudak. It’s too early to say if Mulcair is Horwath. Hopefully he at least learned from her mistakes.
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Mulcair will do everything in his power to ensure that Trudeau doesn’t hopscotch over him into 24 Sussex because that would be disastrous for his political ambitions. Also, Mulcair will fight to hold on to leader of the OOP and keep the Liberals as a rump if it looks like Harper will hold on to power in a majority or minority. This election will be like a juggling 3-ball clown show!
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Why do people always think changing one leader or one advisor automatically changes the game? It takes organization, patience, tireless effort and a targeted policy platform that builds a coalition. Trudeau has fundraised very well and deserves credit for that, but what coalition of voters has he targeted? What policy has he promoted? Where has he tried to build and expand his organization? i get that he is cautiously waiting to release his platform….. But that hasn’t appeared to work.
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I was excited about Trudeau, but also expected a lot more. Sometimes it feels like the strategists saw the polls go up, then patted themselves on the back and went to sleep. People are right: Liberals need more than a new face. They need fresh organization, policy, issues. When the election rolls around, “stop harper” isn’t going be enough reason to vote Liberal if the NDP is strong in Quebec and resurging in the west.
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Fully agree…a year ago, JT held much promised for voters who hang just to left of centre and describe themselves as left-leaning Liberals or moderate NDP types. His waffling on foreign policy issues, his lack of substantial policies on oil and climate change, his stand on C-51 and his elitist nomination bungling are dwarfed by one simple fact: There are not enough goodies in the policy window to attract lots of shoppers. “Harper is bad’ is not a policy. We’ll have at least another Con minority, and possibly a slim Con majority.
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Some of us recognized him for the lightweight he is right off the bat. But I it wasn’t for his celebrity, the LPC would still be in third place without a pot to piss in. Maybe he might surprise come election time, but I doubt it.
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If there is a growing consensus that Justin is not ready for the leadership of Canada, the only strategy for the Liberals is to promote the brand and convince Canadians to vote for the local candidate, and by default Justin will become PM of Canada. Could happen, but I’m sure that the Mulcair NDP will try to stop that gambit.
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Again, I love how everyone is up in arms over one poll.
Look at the http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/04/29/liberals-score-highest-as-conservatives-stop-six-week-slide/#.VUNoJDN0xHg. It was out in the field around the same time.
So as always polls capture a particular moment. With all the press around the budget, the CPC bump makes perfect sense. Its all good messaging for them. All pollster do use a different criteria and polling pool.
If the trend is favorable to CPC then its would have to be more that one or two polls in a row. but overall polls are seeing the liberals in a good position coming into the next election compared to the last few election.
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The Nanos Index is garbage. It’s an index of … what? The Conservatives just bumped up from 51 to 52 powers? 52 indexes? 52 nanoses?
It bothers me that the media even reports it because it’s just an arbitrary scoreboard that lets them treat politics as a horserace. It means nothing.
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Ha ha ha! Love it. My views exactly. Reflects arrogance on the part of the pollster, not a reality any of us can understand.
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Everyone should just get their knickers untwisted.
During the Liberal leadership the consensus was that this was a two election effort at minimum. The party was that badly depleted. There was no fundraising, no organization, no membership.
Under Trudeau’s leadership fundraising has greatly improved, the organization is being re-built, and there is now election readiness training going on.
If the Liberals become Official Opposition everyone will be happy. If the hold the Cons to a minority, they will be ecstatic.
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The trend line is your candidate has been revealed to have no clothes, and lowering the bar to second will soon be to just increase the number of seats.
Pathetic that such a scoundrel as Harper will get another free pass unless ABC unite and support the NDP.
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Trudeau needs more experience. They should have gone with Marc Garneau.
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Looks like Trudeau is going with Bill Blair who has a lot of policing experience. Blair gets the green light go and Tim Weber is getting the hook!
http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/04/30/weber-steps-aside-in-scarborough-southwest-for-star-recruit-blair/
(p.s. if the above link doesn’t work, go through National Newswatch to access the article)
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Maybe Kathy can offer Tim something to do now that he’s not a candidate anymore.
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Marc Garneau is my MP
He’s better than Ambien.
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Wonder if Trudeau’s position on Islamic ‘radicalization’ in Canada will help or hinder the Liberals.
He calls Richard Fadden, Canada’s National Security Adviser’s latest warning ‘fearmongering’ and may be on the verge of accusing him of Islamophobia according to Lilley. Is Justin going to be perceived as an apologist for the jihadi extremists in our midst in an election campaign attack ad?
http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_calls_new_warnings_about_muslim_radicalization_fear_mongering
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Warren,
Nine years. Nine very long years…
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And it will be another 4 long years if there is not an entente cordiale between Justin and Thomas; and going into the next election so as not to again split the centre-left vote thus allowing the Cons to win up the middle again, to 2019.
Alternatively, if the NDP and Liberals lose the next election to another majority Harper government, they will be forced by necessity to unite, and with a new and legitimate leader who represents unity, not more disunity.
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John R,
We will go into the election knowing in advance that this Prime Minister will use coalition as a whipping boy. It worked well when Dion tried it. For Harper to win, voters must regard it as equivalent to the demon seed. That’s why a pre-election coalition isn’t on. The opposition parties need to say they will look at the results knowing that nothing is off the table.
As for eventually uniting, that isn’t on given that a merger of social-democrats and liberal centrists is a no-go in advance. Liberals will never be social-democrats and the NDP can never be anything but social-democrats.
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Trying to impose a post-election coalition concoction will rip the country apart because as you said the Liberals and NDP are not compatible for a merger. The only way the centre-left can be united is if one of the parties is wound up after the next election.
If Mulcair holds on to leader of the OOP and the Liberals are relegated to rump existence again that will mean the LPC should be ended. The Red Grits go to the NDP and the Blue Grits to the CPC; and I figure that 2/3 of the LPC are Red Grits and only 1/3 are Blue Grits. Of course that assumes the CPC will win the next election!
If that is what the future hold, I estimate the country will politically split 50/50 and we will have a two-party system. The only nightmare would be if the Greens held the balance of power!
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I agree with Michael, it should be a 2 election process.
JT would be far better off to have another 4 yrs under his belt than becoming PM and making a mess of it which would do lasting damage to the LPC brand. Look at the damage that Bob Rae did to the NDP brand in ON.
Under the current global financial situation, I pity whoever becomes top dog in ANY western country this year.
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And then there is this poll: http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/01/the-ekos-poll-harper-budget-not-moving-the-needle-on-public-opinion/ Those that want to trash the Liberals and their handlers will use one poll. Those that want to paint a more positive picture of the same people will use another poll. Each side will totally ignore and low ball the poll that doesn’t serve their own personal needs. But don’t fret. There will be another poll out in a day or two with a new narrative to twist.
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Don’t be a big baby. You’ve posted the poll. Everyone can and should review it. But the overall trend line is the same: down.
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Trudeau definitely doesn’t have the experience or qualifications to become PM. He should have entered municipal or provincial politics before entering at the federal level. With the exception of the lovely Eve Adams, he’s the youngest person in the Liberal caucus.
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Michael,
Do you happen to remember the 2006 version of Stephen Harper? It was frightening how timid and ill suited that man was to serve as Prime Minister. The Stephen Harper that served as Alliance leader was completely inadequate to serve in high elective office. But Harper, like most people, put his nose to the grindstone.
Stephen Harper along the way transformed into a real leader that people have confidence in. Even those who do not support him recognize his leadership abilities.
The same thing can and will happen to JustinTrudeau. It’s far too early to write him off as a national leader. Just wait and see how he finds his political self in the campaign. Faith is a wonderful thing. Fellow Liberals need to have much more of it. It is premature to write Justin off.
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And well it should be. The Conservatives have put everything they have to offer in the window. The Liberals are doing something few have dared to do, which is put nothing in the window until much closer to the election. Call it political rope-a-dope. Risky? Maybe. Ill-advised? Maybe. But then again, why not wait until the other 90% of voters who pay zero attention this far out, begin to tune in. When you’re facing a smear-machine like the Harperites, why make the same mistakes that Iggy and Dion made by rolling it all out too early? The key of course is to have something special to put in the window when you’re ready to strike. If they’ve got some goodies for Canadians, these polls are a waste of time. If their entire platform is a pile of cliches then their goose is cooked.
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Trudeau will be unveiling a key part of his platform next week: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/justin-trudeau-set-to-reveal-policy-agenda-focused-on-middle-class/article24229281/
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Hmm.
Trudeau has said for the last two years, no platform until the election begins.
Now they will be releasing a portion of it next week.
Translation – They’re scared.
Oh, and the first quarter 2015 fundraising numbers:
CPC – $6,302,917.51 (41,161 donors)
LIBS – $3.87 million (34,504 donors)
NDP – $2.27 million (28,060 donors)
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“until the election begins”
hey – the writ has not been dropped but “the election” is well underway
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From the article:
“However the coming announcement plays, his advisers expect lack of policy to soon be the least of their concerns. After the coming announcements, one of them said half-jokingly, the complaint may be that he has too much of it.”
I see this as a huge risk for the Liberals.
1) They’ll be seen as promising everything to everyone in a blatantly transparent attempt at getting elected
2) Voters respond to KISS. Keep It Simple Stupid. Convoluted policy, overwhelming voters with policy, they’ll tune you out.
3) Related to #2, Trudeau has repeatedly shown he is ok at reading prepared remarks, but gets into serious trouble when having to go off script and explain things. It should be KISSed not only so voters understand it, but so TRUDEAU understands it and can defend it when challenged.
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Here are a couple of gut issues that Canadian voters will be forced to contemplate:
1. The economy of the nation, the family and seniors.
2. The security of the nation from jihadi extremists.
3. Reelect Harper or chose between two leaders from Quebec.
Is this K.I.S.S. enough for the currently disengaged and doezy Canadian voter?
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It’s very difficult to win first place from the third place position.
Justin Trudeau and the Liberals just need to focus on rebuilding. They should simply run to their base (left of center voters) with the purpose of knocking out the NDP out of Official Opposition status. The NDP is enemy #1 for them right now.
Once they’ve achieved that, they can focus on winning the election after that one by running to the center. They will be running against 13 years of consecutive CPC rule from a much stronger position.
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Devil’s Advocate,
What we have to recognize right off the bat is that Stephen Harper is no Jean Chrétien. It’s not even close. Most people loved Chrétien and were keen to give him a third term. Harper, although well respected, is not liked by the voters. The CPC are inclined to take too much for granted concerning Harper’s so-called re-election. Just wait and see.