Musings —04.20.2015 07:49 AM—
Not really. The last time a budget single-handedly sank a government was in the Fall of 1979, when John Crosbie offered up a fiscal stinker that ended Joe Clark’s flirtation with power. Other than that disaster, I can’t think of a federal budget – in and of itself – that killed off a government.
Besides: Joe Oliver’s pretty smart. Not for him impolitical, imprudent musing about government fiscal policy. Oliver is a disciplined message machine, from what I’ve observed. He’s no ideologue, either.
But does trouble loom on the horizon?
“Mr. Oliver’s Nov. 12 fiscal update forecast economic growth of 2.6 per cent in 2015, but now he is only counting on 2-per-cent growth because of the drop in oil prices. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said growth will only be 1.9 per cent and has warned first-quarter figures will be “atrocious.”
However, Mr. Poloz used the release of his April 15 Monetary Policy Report to highlight some positive signs on the horizon. The worst impacts of low oil may have peaked, he said, and the Canadian economy should soon start to see some of the positive economic impacts of lower energy costs.“
Waiting to the Fall to have an election? I’ve always thought it was risky for the Consetvatives to do that. What if Poloz is wrong – and plenty of economists say he is – and things are getting worse, not better?
I run a small business. I have great people working for me, and great clients to work for. I watch the ebb and flow of business very, very carefully. And I don’t get the sense that anyone thinks that the country’s economy is in great shape. Most folks, in fact, are quite nervous.
So, good luck, Joe Oliver. A government’s entire fate may not be in your hands. But a lot of it is.