05.09.2015 11:23 AM

But I also now predict Kathleen Wynne will win the next election as a result 

  

34 Comments

  1. Iris Mclean says:

    Sad day for Ontario. Bad day for the Cons. Great day for the Libs and Dippers.

  2. Barb says:

    What do they say? Image is everything…. and visage is important.
    I mean, look at the guy’s face… he never smiles and looks like the Grim Reaper..!!!
    He may be a fine person, a great dad and husband, and sharp as a tack…. but most people are swayed by what they see.
    First impressions are lasting impressions, and I’m not impressed by what I see…. sorry.

    • edward nuff says:

      I thought the same thing. Put him in a uniform and you’ve got a stormtrooper right out of central casting.

    • Doug says:

      He’s not married.

      I’m a PC member who voted for Elliott and I really don’t know if I could vote for the guy. He’s socially conservative and not all that fiscally conservative judging from the few shreds of policy he put out. Warren’s right, the PCs are likely headed to oblivion, even Hudak wasn’t that socially conservative(which is a death knell in a general election).

      • Barb says:

        Time for a truly conservative “Trillium Party” ….. just like the Wildrose Party! Get rid of all those useless unProgressive unConservatives and give Ontarians a competent conservative choice…. and with a decent leader preferably a Maggie Thatcher-type. Otherwise Ontarians risk the same fate as AB…. another NDP disaster in 2018.

  3. GFMD says:

    The OPC hasn’t quite set itself on fire, but it doused itself in gasoline and there are lots of people looking to hand Mr. Brown a match. Even moreso than usual, the Liberals look to be all alone in the mild right.

  4. SmallTownON says:

    This is day the Cons will long regret, and as I progressive voter, I must say that I was thrilled with the outcome.

    I can’t fathom why the Conservatives would turn their back on someone with the experience, gravitas and appeal of Chrstine Elliott. She was really the only natural foil to Kathleen Wynne’s popular (and female) appeal, and there’s a reason centrist-leaning cons like Bill Davis lined up behind her: they knew she had a shot.

    Brown, by comparison is middling style with zero substance. Look at his “record” in Parliament. Look at how long he’s been there and how long he’s been overlooked for advancement. Look at the career path: from campus con-crusader to lifetime politician. His C.V. makes Tim Hudak look like Mitchell Sharp by comparison. The Tories have banked on his youth, membership numbers and (relative) lack of baggage, but they don’t know what they’re in for. This is going to be a flame out of massive proportions.

    Lastly, I’d also love to know who vetted this guy. He’s (in)famous for spending Friday and Saturday nights on Bayfield Street, trolling for college and university students two thirds his age. Nothing like having the MP from Barrie approach you with an oily, “Hi. Do you know who I am?” and offering to buy you a drink. Makes my skin crawl just thinking about it.

    That sound you’ll hear in the coming months are card carrying Ontario conservatives smacking their foreheads in unison (or Liberal voters gleefully high-fiving …)

  5. Priyesh says:

    I wouldn’t take him lightly. Despite the tough leadership race, the PCs are really unified in their hatred of Kathleen Wynne. And he’s hard right enough to keep the crazy tea party idiots happy.

    A lot can happen in a few years. Wynne has been governing far better than McGuinty, IMO. But as Trudeau knows, a few dumb strategists can blow things pretty quick. And as extreme as Brown is, Conservative strategists are excellent at putting a wolf in a sheep’s wool sweater. Just ask our Prime Minister.

  6. Ken from the Annex says:

    Two words: George Formby

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEymZ3rXOmc

  7. gyor says:

    Horwath will win, Wynne is going to take too much heat over hydro.

  8. Cameron Prymak says:

    Yes, she will. Clearer lines of distinction vs Federal parties plus experience.

  9. Matt says:

    Don’t take him lightly.

    He’s a very good grass roots organizer, and he’s friends with the Indian Prime Minister who got a rock star welcome in Toronto a couple weeks ago which could help him with the large Indo-Canadin population in the GTA.

    The fact the Liberals and NDP, within minutes of his win began their attacks speaks volumes.

  10. Matt says:

    Lest fellow Libs get too cocky remember many said Rae, Harris and McGuinty would never be Premier when chosen Leader. #smarten up

    — DwightDuncan (@DwightDuncan) May 9, 2015

  11. P Brennan says:

    depends on economy and jobs as we get clsoer to next election…Ontario is in a fiscal mess really ….could see NDP

  12. Al in Cranbrook says:

    Young gun who bucked the establishment, and won. Against one of the guard who was considered a gimme.

    Obviously has something going for him…like street smarts and political savvy.

    And he has lots of time to set up shop and sew some seed.

    • DonW says:

      Al, look at history. Hard right can win in BC & Alta., I’ll give you that. Not a snowball’s chance in hell here in centrist Ontario. Even Mike Harris had to shuffle to the centre of the floor. All the LPO war room will have to do is quote Brown. The attack ads will write themselves. Our host Warren is absolutely on target. Get ready to watch the slow-mo trainwreck.

      • Al in Cranbrook says:

        The NDP will never win in Alberta.

        I don’t see him as hard right.

        In the same manner as I certainly don’t see the Wynne government as anything approaching centrist.

        Ontario is an economic train wreck looking for a place to happen…if it hasn’t already.

        And the proverbial pendulum tends to swing. Thus, it is not likely to swing even further to the left, but rather in the opposite direction.

  13. UFP Ambassador says:

    Wynne is already a disaster. All it takes is a bland no mistakes campaign and she’s toast.

  14. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    I’m sure Harper knows very well that when a door closes, a window opens. It will be a big strategic win for him if he can recruit Elliott with a very senior cabinet position.

    • GFMD says:

      Can’t realistically happen. There’s no way to call a byelection for only that riding – he’d have to open up the other vacant ridings for potentially some embarrassing losses. And after October Ms. Elliot knows he probably won’t be in a position to hand out cabinet positions.

  15. Brian K says:

    Obviously the Libs have to take him seriously – very ambitious, excellent organizer. Anyone who can come from relatively nowhere to win a party leadership is immediately someone to be reckoned with. That said, the PCs appear to have blown this one big time. Social conservatism will not play in the GTA and Ottawa area, where voters are concentrated. Organizing only gets you so far. At the end of the day voters have to, you know, like you. Or at least respect your intelligence (Harper doesn’t win the “beer question”, but he’s widely regarded as smart and competent). I don’t know Elliott personally, but last week I spoke to someone who does, and his take was that her heart wasn’t really in this fight. That seems plausible to me. Brown had way more energy than his competitors, but I don’t know if he’s really been tested by this process. There’s absolutely nothing I’ve seen so far that makes me think he can win a general.

    • Doug says:

      I got the impression that Elliott thought she might be able to win without too much effort before Brown got into the race(and started signing up every so-con he could find at anti-abortion groups and ethnic events.) Once the race got nasty I think she lost enthusiasm. She wasn’t a great candidate but I do think she had a serious shot at the Premier’s office by default.

      It was a very weak field. Fedeli was a stronger candidate than his support showed but he was in an area(North Bay) not traditionally considered friendly to the PC’s and didn’t have much of a geographic base, he was also behind Elliott in that wing of the party. MacLeod is an attack dog type, suited for opposition and not governing, both of them dropped out relatively quickly anyway. McNaughton’s campaign seemed to be a personal crusade to make himself appear more and more ridiculous with each passing day and he makes Brown seem a wise choice in comparison. His endorsement helped push Brown over the top though and he’ll likely be rewarded by a plum spot.

      As for Brown well his campaign was so unbelivably vapid, I’ve never seen someone with so few ideas in this high a position. His not dropping his seat will be brought up on the 2018 trail, not attending votes and basically running his campaign on the public dime is bad news. Than there is the matter of not having a seat, I don’t think the Elliott camp is rushing out to hand them their’s so he likely only has a handful to choose from or maybe hope someone runs federally in the fall.

      It is forum but they had Eliott winning 36-28 over the OLP. Brown was only running at 32-31. So he’s cost them 4 points right off the bat and that’s with him relatively unknown.

  16. Pauline Linzy says:

    Assuming the OPP continue to sleep on the job and the Oakville plant and Sudbury investigations go nowhere…..you still have to imagine that Ontario will be completely bankrupt by the time Wynne is up for re-election. I think it’s impossible Warren.

  17. Michael says:

    Day two of Patrick Brown as Ontario PC leader and he still hasn’t resigned as MP for Barrie. It is going to be hard for him to challenge the ethics of the Liberals with his nose so firmly planted in the trough.

  18. cgh says:

    Predictions are useless this far out. A week is an eternity in politics, let alone four years. And has been frequently pointed out, election campaigns matter, a lot.

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