06.14.2015 08:07 PM

From this guy, this is a big deal

Apart from Bob Hepburn – who has taken to writing fiction – Den Tandt was the only commentator they had left. 

Either way, Liberals cannot gild this lily, and their supporters would be better off not to try. They may conceivably wind up in a fight to hang onto what they now hold, which is 36 seats. Having the leader cut a lower profile while he bones up on his debating skills will not cut it. I would venture a guess that Trudeau either embraces his underdog status and scraps it out, mano a mano, or he loses, big.

Have the feeling this is all going to end badly? Me, too. 

31 Comments

  1. Mervyn Norton says:

    How to position yourself as a candidate? Hillary knows: “I may not be the youngest candidate in this race, but I’ll be the youngest woman president in the history of the United States.”

  2. Priyesh says:

    The Hepburn article didn’t fill me with confidence either. It was borderline delusional.

    As rough as Den Tandt seemed, he actually gives me more confidence. He’s right, no ducking, no low profile. Fire the strategists, be bold, and get out there. Stand up for this country’s future, focus groups be damned.

    • Peter says:

      You seem to be assuming there is a “real” Justin brimming with substance and gravitas that is being hidden by spin and backroom control. Can you point to one piece of evidence of that? The reason that Con job application ad is so devastating is that it resonates based, not on Con critiques, but on his own performance.

      I wonder whether rejecting Garneau will go down as one of the biggest self-inflicted wounds in Liberal history.

      • torontian says:

        Next to rejecting Rae in 2006 and 2008, maybe. He may not have beaten Harper, but I’ll bet the LPC wouldn’t currently be at 36 seats.

      • cgh says:

        Peter, this would not be the first time. The party’s made a series of dreadful leadership and policy blunders since Chretien was ousted. Perhaps their worst came during the Martin coup when a load of strong talent, people like John Manley, were chased out. Truth is the party is still trying to recover from the civil war of the 1990s. And if it doesn’t get its act together it may well go the way of the British Liberal Party during the early 20th C.

  3. Mark says:

    While I personally hope Trudeau loses this election, because he’s a shallow, vacuous, and dictatorial leader, I disagree this will end badly for the Libs – unless you consider anything less than a minority Liberal government a bad result. Nothing seems to point to the Libs winning anything less than 85 seats from everything I’ve seen. To win 2.5 times the seats one’s party presently has, will be considered a victory in many people’s eyes. I would also consider that a victory of sorts. If and when Trudeau learns from a loss such as this, perhaps he may end up to be worthy of Canadians’ support. Right now he’s not.

    • jeff316 says:

      Agreed. Justin has many flaws but NDP support is peaking at the wrong time and all these “oh no!” articles just help depress expectations and make Justin Trudeau what he has never ever been – the underdog.

      Only people who actually expected a majority Liberal government will be disappointed with the eventual outcome. Otherwise, he’ll do well and it will be fine.

    • Ridiculosity says:

      You are wrong on all three counts: Trudeau isn’t shallow, vacuous or dictatorial.

      Do your homework, like any informed voter should. Instead of watching TV or listening to the radio.

  4. edward nuff says:

    maybe jt and Bono can strike up the band and sing i still haven’t found what im looking for.

  5. Elisabeth Lindsay says:

    Best comment yet, Edward!

    Pretty much sums it up to me.

  6. RogerX says:

    “Justin Trudeau, the Toronto Star’s Bob Hepburn opined Saturday, is showing signs of “turning a corner….”

    A precipice also has a corner … going downwards…..

  7. Ropshin says:

    The press may be talking about a three way election but there have been very few such elections in Canadian history. This is largely because the FPTP system fosters polarization between the two leading parties.
    There is now developing such a strong anti-harper sentiment that whichever of the main opposition parties establishes a lead over the other stands to coalesce the anti-harper vote around it.
    Right now that party looks to be the NDP.
    Although current polling levels may give the Liberals the 85 seats mentioned by Mark the dynamics of the campaign may reduce them to something less than what they got in 2011.

  8. chuckercanuck says:

    Wait though, does Premier Wynne have a history of saying really dumb things? You guys probably don’t remember this but when Justin first became MP (or was it just candidate) – he had a website where he took questions from people. Someone asked him if he would grant Canadian citizenship to an extra-terrestrial. He said he would. (I’m not joking).

    Also, does Premier Wynne sound like someone with managerial, administrative and leadership experience? I kind of find she does. Justin sounds like John Candy doing Orson Welles.

    Oh wait, was Premier Wynne the incumbent? My gut says she was and she was going against an untested newby with a penchant for making bad promises. I think the incumbent in this case is Stephen Harper (I could be wrong).

    So a Wynne-Trudeau analogy seems more desperate than raising Gilles Duceppe from the political dead.

    The Dippers will have a rough time coming up. That’s the glimmer of hope the Liberals have. The Conservatives will not have a bad spell coming up. They are at their floor and looking to climb a few flights. So, Liberals should turn their guns on the Dippers: what crazy ass things to those orange socialists plan to unleash on Canada?

    • Priyesh says:

      I beg to differ. Trudeau needs to keep his sights trained squarely on Harper and be that alternative that voters are looking for. The Liberals have tried “the other parties are too scary, you have to vote for us” for the past 20 years. It’s time to really focus on why we have a Liberal party at all.

      • chuckercanuck says:

        The danger with that strategy, Priyesh, is that if his argument is a solely anti-Harper, voters might take the message and vote Dipper. Mulcair is the only politician with a reasonable shot of de-throning the Tories. He has exactly the base (Quebec) that used to be the Liberal stepping stone to majorities. Ontario will see Quebec’s “bloc” staying Orange and if Trudeau effectively argues for change, then Ontario will go orange too.

        Worse, except for a Marajuana plant in every backyard, Trudeau’s policies are exactly the Tories policies with only minor embellishments.

        I just don’t see how Trudeau survives without getting serious about the NDP.

    • cgh says:

      Quite right, chuckercanuck. This won’t end well for either the Libs or the Dips. How quickly people forget the 2000 and 1997 elections when the Chretien Liberals faced a divided conservative party. Even though Joe Clark polled a miserable 12% of voters, it was still more than sufficient to keep the Reform in opposition as it had every election since 1993. Like PC and Reform in the ’90s, the Libs and Dips are fishing from the same pool of centre-left voters. They have literally no choice but to go after each other. Neither of them can be so delusional as to imagine they’re going to be attracting any right wing voters to their causes.

  9. Michael S says:

    Ottawa and Toronto cabbies are talking about voting NDP. These are the guys that loved Rob Ford. They have Bill C-51. If that’s happening I suspect it will be an NDP majority, which will give both the Liberals and the Conservatives time to clean house.

    • Michael S says:

      “they hate” Bill C-51.

      That’s what lost the election for the Liberals. If you’re going to support conservative policies why vote Liberal?

  10. Mark says:

    More ammo for the Dippers:
    The veteran who resigned his Liberal candidacy in N.S. did so because of Trudeau’s support for Bill C-51. “It was an integrity-based decision,” he said. Ouch.

    • Matt says:

      Angus Ried poll from the end of May suggests 72% of Canadian adults support C-51 as is, but would also prefer more oversight.

      Even if Mulcair says he’ll repeal C-51, I’m betting he won’t do it if he becomes PM.

      • GFMD says:

        the question will be what it gets replaced with. No reasons to expect the NDP won’t preserve anything valuable while getting rid of the bad stuff.

      • Mark says:

        True ’nuff.
        This is more about optics.
        A Canadian veteran running against McKay because of the treatment of veterans was horrible optics for the Conservatives.
        The same veteran now not running because of the perceived lack of integrity in the Liberal leader (regardless of reason) is horrible optics for the Liberals.

  11. Marlene Anderson says:

    I think the conduct of the NDP in Alberta will serve as a bellwether for the federal NDP. The appointment of Graham Mitchell as chief of staff for Alberta’s energy portfolio has the federal conservatives slavering and rubbing their hands with glee. An anti-oil, anti-pipeline lobbyist in the most important sector in the province is like a gift too good to be true. The LPC has an opportunity to exploit the AB NDPs blunders as well as capitalize on Canadians’ weariness with the Harper conservatives. All of Canada is watching Alberta. The hair on the back of Notley’s neck must be standing on end.

    • RogerX says:

      In desperation, Notley is importing NDP wonks from Ontario to provide her with the brains her caucus so obviously lack. But where will a PM Mulcair find PMO advisers to fill in the brain gap that would reside within a NDP government — Quebec? .. France?

      • Marlene Anderson says:

        Good point. The NDP is a party of protest, not only in how they tend to arrive in power, but by the very nature of their core values. Knocking down ‘the man’ is far different than building and sustaining a country. It’s like striking workers suddenly being put in charge of the company.

        • RogerX says:

          Ironically, the strategies of the Libs and NDP may be reversed.
          The Liberals will ask Canadians to vote generically for their local Liberal candidate without thinking about Justin, and by default get a PM Justin…….. while the NDP will be promoting silky smooth lawyer-leader Mulcair and not to look too closely at the NDP candidates other than finding them on the ballot to vote NDP.

          Liberals: Vote for our qualified candidates….. NDP: Vote for our qualified leader ……. and once again, the NDP leader is the one who should be leading the Liberals!!

          • Marlene Anderson says:

            It’s an interesting situation between the NDP and LPC. It will be interesting to watch how all three party strategists try to shape the battleground.

            “I am more afraid of an army of 100 sheep led by a lion than an army of 100 lions led by a sheep.” ~ Talleyrand

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