07.20.2015 06:43 AM

Leger: on the day the UCCB rolls out, look at this!

Also, Leger apparently used black for the Tories because they’re the dark side or something.

22 Comments

  1. Taco says:

    stories take a week to sink into the polls, unless something very major. you know that, it’s summer, and you’re being cheeky.

  2. Peter says:

    we used black for the Tories…

    OK by us. In our fantasies, we like to see Stevie as Batman cleaning up Gotham City.

  3. MississaugaPeter says:

    Harper Fail.

    Could have got my vote if he had made it retroactive a decade. Would come in handy with the tuition (just one – over $42K/year for Dual uWindsor/uDetroit Mercy Law program).

  4. Brad says:

    Steve has gone to great lengths to get people to dislike him, I think it’s finally working.

    • Lance says:

      Really? Despite pretty much hovering around the 33% for all this time? You better take a look at the orange and red number, they tell the real story.

  5. davie says:

    Over at The Tyee website is an article by Will McMartin in which he analyzes numbers like these and stacks them against redistribution and comes up with another Conservative government.

  6. Matt says:

    Just heard on the radio a poll done for Le Journal de Montreal (missed the company, might have been part of this Leger poll) for the province of Quebec:

    NDP – 34%
    CPC – 23%
    Bloc – 19%
    LIBS – 18%

    CPC in second and the Libs in 4th in Quebec. Wow.

  7. Lance says:

    And the Tories are right in the middle between orange and red. But I’m sure that doesn’t mean anything. Curious that the NDP was put first in the column in a tie.

  8. Patrick says:

    This looks good on the government the day the UCCB rolls out http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pierre-poilievre-s-t-shirt-choice-for-promoting-uccb-raises-eyebrows-1.3160023

    How much public money has been spent to support this plank of the Conservative platform now?

  9. Moe Greene says:

    I don’t mean to be impolite, but I call major BS on this poll.

    How do the Conservatives jump from general obscurity in the polls to second place competitive to the NDP without any single event taking place in Quebec over the past month that would shore up support for the government?

    I also noticed that the NDP are placed first on the graph there next to the black-coloured CPC.

    Can you say overt messaging?

    If there was any doubt before, these polls don’t exactly scream reliability and unbiased.

  10. edward nuff says:

    black for the tar party. seems about right.

  11. EdwardG says:

    It’s not “Federal” intentions because the BQ is not a federal party. Therefore the BQ 5% federally is misleading.

    Also much of the NDP vote resides in Quebec whilst most of the Liberal and Conservative vote is in the RoC.

    Perhaps the Leger pollsters should split the voting intentions between Quebec and the RoC to provide the true picture in Canada and Quebec.

    If they did that the Liberal and Conservative percentages would rise in the RoC and the NDP would drop substantially.

    • Kelly says:

      But in our steam age first past the post sham voting system, “national” numbers don’t mean anything. All that matters is percentage of the vote in individual ridings. You could have 90% of the vote but all of it concentrated in 100 ridings and you still wouldn’t get a majority. Likewise you could get 28% of the vote nationally and win a majority if the vote percentages were split equally enough. The last time we had a “real majority” was Mulroney’s first term. Every other “majority” government we’ve had has been phony; it’s that simple…and in my view is the reason so many people are so cynical of politics and voting.

      But more to the point of the thread, our system is a complete fraud, and any poll that speculates on outcomes now are worse than useless — the INFLUENCE voter intention, rather than measure it in any meaningful way. Polls should be banned once the writ is dropped.

      • EdwardG says:

        I agree, once the writ is dropped publishing polls should be banned but not outright banned because the parties need to do in-house polling to determine where they stand.

        And yes, the FPTP voting system is somewhat archaic, but for a country as diverse and spread out as Canada it will have to suffice. Since we are a confederation of provinces, I doubt there would be any constitutional agreement amongst the provinces to change the federal voting system.

        Small area and high density European countries can have a PR system because there is little political difference between rural and urban areas. In Canada, a PR system would greatly disadvantage the rural vote, and Canada consists of a large rural area. The large urban areas would consistently out-vote the rural areas causing friction between the regions.

        I don’t see all the provinces agreeing to a PR voting system and it might even be unconstitutional; or even agreeing on ending the Senate. What you got is what you see.

        • doconnor says:

          Actually pretty much every country has some form of PR except the few we pay attention to, Canada, US and the UK (the newly created legislatures of Scotland and Wales, of course, have PR).

          Oh no! Rural voters would be hugely disadvantaged with the influence reduced to mere equals with urban voters.

          I would not require a constitutional change to introduce PR. In fact one group attempted to have to courts rule that first past the post was unconstitutional.

    • AG says:

      The Green Party is a national party and has 6% of the polled vote while the Bloc Quebecois is a Quebec-only party and is shown to have 5% of the national vote. You would have thought the statisticians at the polling firms would not have included the BQ in the national vote because it misrepresents reality. Wonder why they do it thus?

  12. Bluegreenblogger says:

    Hm. I just read what little Leger publishes on methodology. Is it only me, or do you find it surprising that only 6% of the sample had not decided their vote yet? I find that number, this far before the election to be literally INcredible. Which is to say, UNbelievable. And more and more massaging of the data in order to more perfectly reflect PAST results. I don’t think that publicly released polls are of any value any more, other than for propaganda.

  13. Student501 says:

    makes sense to me, PMSH has done Stones material, they must have thought of this one, even has red in the lyrics:

    “Paint It Black”

    I see a red door and I want it painted black
    No colors any more, I want them to turn black
    I see the girls walk by, dressed in their summer clothes
    I have to turn my head until my darkness goes

  14. James Bow says:

    If you turn your sound up high and hover your mouse over the Conservative numbers, you hear James Earl Jones breathing in and out very loudly…

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