— Musings —08.11.2015 12:09 PM
— Musings —08.11.2015 12:09 PM
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
And they’ve been stuck there.
Bob Rae has made the NDP toxic there.
The question is what’s more likely: the NDP rising in Ontario, or the Liberals rising pretty much everywhere else?
The answer: neither. We are staring down the barrel of another Harper minority government.
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
A much higher third then then they where a few months ago. I’d be more worried about the Liberal’s recent drop.
Still a close second nationally.
In Quebec it looks like the BQ bump is gone.
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
Trashing Alberta and the tar sands is always good for quick easy votes in QuebecBC and Ontario, so I would expect a slight bump from McQaige’s comments to help them a little bit. They weren’t going to get anymore swats in Alberta anyway.
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
*seats in Alberta
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
The NDP currently hold one seat here in Alberta, Edmonton-Strathcona.
They reasonably think they have a shot at the following.
Edmonton-Centre
Edmonton-Griesbach
Lethbridge
The Conservatives are not expecting to win all three.
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
“Trashing Alberta and the tar sands is always good for quick easy votes in QuebecBC and TORONTO, not so much rural Ontario…”
There, fixed it for ya.
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
If there’s a teacher’s strike in September and Wynne digs in that will affect the NDP fortunes I’m betting. Maybe the Dippers are counting on that also….and thus their sitting back.
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
The NDP is clearly in the lead in Quebec and BC. The party needs to work on Ontario. It needs to really push the change message there.
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
Having Wynne campaign for you would be a dumb-ass…Oops, butts decision. Justin’s mistake was not making sure everyone was stoned BEFORE the campaign.
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
Dips Stll In Third In Ontario. Has something changed?
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
While I think the NDP has been running a pretty poor campaign so far, and could very well end up in third in Ontario, this Nanos poll is pretty “iffy”. According to this same poll, the Cons are third in B.C. with 26% which is really hard to believe. The poll also claims that the NDP and Liberal are tied in the Prairies, with 19% and 18% respectively, which is highly suspect. It also shows the Greens polling better in the Prairies and Ontario than in B.C., which is doubtful, given that Vancouver Island is probably the region where they have the most support.
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
Yes, Ontario. Did you see the National the other night with all those car companies moving to Mexico? The new Ontario pension plan should stop that! Ms. Wynne is doing a great job getting SH elected there.
As well, there is Harper’s secret weapon in Ontario:http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-laureen-harper-tours-conservative-campaign-offices-1.3180330
She appeals to the ordinary person unlike Justin or fancy Tom!
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
Down in Ontario, but way, way up in British Columbia.
NDP still second across this fine land (but it is a horse race):
Harper – 31.2%
NDP – 30.4%
Lib – 28.6%
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
I think that the NDP is not running a good campaign and I don’t believe they have a particularly effective (likable) leader but it is way way too early to put much stock in any poll.
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
If the drop is in the so-called 905, then Harper’s as good as gone.
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
The margin of error is +/- 6%, so I’m taking this poll with a grain of salt. For all we know the Conservatives could be at 31% and the Dips 32, or a great variance in between.
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
With a large margin of error of +/- 6% I’m taking this poll with a cellar of salt.
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
(Oops I got a captcha error on the first comment, that’s why it’s there twice).
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
Nanos should be regarded cautiously. It is a rolling poll extending over four weeks with 250 new respondents every week. All but one day of the sampling was pre-debate and half of it before the election was even called.
I would put more weight on Ipsos, released yesterday which was entirely post debate and which showed NDP 33, Cons 30, Liberals 28
Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /home/q84jy4qfdyhq/public_html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
The Nanos methodology is perfectly valid for polling and its estimates are just as reliable as those from any other polling company. Which is to say they should all be taken with a grain of salt.
Really all polls are indicating that no party has a real advantage in the election yet. From what I have seen the average gap between the three main contenders is less than five percentage points.
This is still anybody’s election to win.