08.11.2015 12:09 PM

Nanos: Dips in third in Ontario

Here.  

 

20 Comments

  1. Priyesh says:

    And they’ve been stuck there.

    Bob Rae has made the NDP toxic there.

    The question is what’s more likely: the NDP rising in Ontario, or the Liberals rising pretty much everywhere else?

    The answer: neither. We are staring down the barrel of another Harper minority government.

  2. doconnor says:

    A much higher third then then they where a few months ago. I’d be more worried about the Liberal’s recent drop.

    Still a close second nationally.

    In Quebec it looks like the BQ bump is gone.

  3. Eric Weiss says:

    Trashing Alberta and the tar sands is always good for quick easy votes in QuebecBC and Ontario, so I would expect a slight bump from McQaige’s comments to help them a little bit. They weren’t going to get anymore swats in Alberta anyway.

    • Eric Weiss says:

      *seats in Alberta

    • Michael Bluth says:

      The NDP currently hold one seat here in Alberta, Edmonton-Strathcona.

      They reasonably think they have a shot at the following.

      Edmonton-Centre
      Edmonton-Griesbach
      Lethbridge

      The Conservatives are not expecting to win all three.

      • UFP Ambassador says:

        “Trashing Alberta and the tar sands is always good for quick easy votes in QuebecBC and TORONTO, not so much rural Ontario…”

        There, fixed it for ya.

  4. bobbie says:

    If there’s a teacher’s strike in September and Wynne digs in that will affect the NDP fortunes I’m betting. Maybe the Dippers are counting on that also….and thus their sitting back.

  5. DJ says:

    The NDP is clearly in the lead in Quebec and BC. The party needs to work on Ontario. It needs to really push the change message there.

  6. lou says:

    Having Wynne campaign for you would be a dumb-ass…Oops, butts decision. Justin’s mistake was not making sure everyone was stoned BEFORE the campaign.

  7. Mike Adamson says:

    Dips Stll In Third In Ontario. Has something changed?

  8. Alex says:

    While I think the NDP has been running a pretty poor campaign so far, and could very well end up in third in Ontario, this Nanos poll is pretty “iffy”. According to this same poll, the Cons are third in B.C. with 26% which is really hard to believe. The poll also claims that the NDP and Liberal are tied in the Prairies, with 19% and 18% respectively, which is highly suspect. It also shows the Greens polling better in the Prairies and Ontario than in B.C., which is doubtful, given that Vancouver Island is probably the region where they have the most support.

  9. Jon Evan says:

    Yes, Ontario. Did you see the National the other night with all those car companies moving to Mexico? The new Ontario pension plan should stop that! Ms. Wynne is doing a great job getting SH elected there.
    As well, there is Harper’s secret weapon in Ontario:http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-laureen-harper-tours-conservative-campaign-offices-1.3180330
    She appeals to the ordinary person unlike Justin or fancy Tom!

  10. MississaugaPeter says:

    Down in Ontario, but way, way up in British Columbia.

    NDP still second across this fine land (but it is a horse race):

    Harper – 31.2%
    NDP – 30.4%
    Lib – 28.6%

  11. Joe says:

    I think that the NDP is not running a good campaign and I don’t believe they have a particularly effective (likable) leader but it is way way too early to put much stock in any poll.

  12. GFMD says:

    If the drop is in the so-called 905, then Harper’s as good as gone.

  13. Derek Pearce says:

    The margin of error is +/- 6%, so I’m taking this poll with a grain of salt. For all we know the Conservatives could be at 31% and the Dips 32, or a great variance in between.

  14. Derek Pearce says:

    With a large margin of error of +/- 6% I’m taking this poll with a cellar of salt.

  15. Derek Pearce says:

    (Oops I got a captcha error on the first comment, that’s why it’s there twice).

  16. Ropshin says:

    Nanos should be regarded cautiously. It is a rolling poll extending over four weeks with 250 new respondents every week. All but one day of the sampling was pre-debate and half of it before the election was even called.
    I would put more weight on Ipsos, released yesterday which was entirely post debate and which showed NDP 33, Cons 30, Liberals 28

    • ottlib says:

      The Nanos methodology is perfectly valid for polling and its estimates are just as reliable as those from any other polling company. Which is to say they should all be taken with a grain of salt.

      Really all polls are indicating that no party has a real advantage in the election yet. From what I have seen the average gap between the three main contenders is less than five percentage points.

      This is still anybody’s election to win.

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