Musings —09.14.2015 09:57 AM—
I have friends in the war rooms of all three parties – and I feel badly for them. After so many weeks of hard, hard work, this has to be frustrating as Hell.
That said, I still give the edge to Harper. Not because his campaign has more money than God. Not because he’s the only leader to have done a national campaign before. Not because he squeezed progressive third party advertisers out of the picture with a super-long writ. Not because he just announced a multi-billion-dollar surplus. Not because progressives are again splitting the progressive vote, in perfect halves.
No. No, here’s why, in helpful little bullets.
- Horserace/top line numbers are useless, particularly in a race as close as this one.
- It’s therefore better and smarter to look at seats in the regions.
- By my count, Harper is going to sweep the prairies; he was always going to do so. That’s nearly 60, right there.
- He’s still on track to do well in Ontario – but let’s be (pun intended) conservative. Let’s spot him only 55 seats. That’s considerably less than half.
- In B.C., let’s (again) be conservative. Let’s only give him a third – 15 seats.
- In Quebec, same deal. Be mean! Just give him the ones he always wins, around Quebec City – just five.
- Atlantic, ditto. Mean, miserly. Just five.
- So, that gives him only about 140 seats. Respectable, but not enough in a Parliament of (now) 338 seats.
- But – and here’s the big, er, but. Those 30 new seats in the three provinces with the most growth – B.C., Alberta and Ontario – are all in places that disproportionately vote Conservative, i.e.. the burbs.
- When you factor in him taking the majority of those new seats, as me and others do, it puts him pretty darn close to another majority. And that’s with us being mean, miserly and conservative!
I know some of you will go psycho over this, and possibly leap off a ledge somewhere, but remember: it’s just politics on the Internet. And, ipso facto, here’s another highly-scientific chart, showing the outcome of all political arguments on the Internet: