Musings —10.04.2015 10:47 AM—
- Threw a surprise birthday party for the missus last night. Lots of amazing folks in attendance, including our impressive local Liberal candidate. Lots of politics discussed. Here’s what I had to say, as said by others.
- Bullet one: What Benjamin Sharma had to say: “This election is fun. Both Conservatives and Liberals think that they’re winning.“
- Bullet two: What Stephen Taylor asked: “Who is right? EKOS or Nanos?“
- Bullet three: What Ipsos and all the others say: “Best Prime Minister: Harper (35%, up 5), Mulcair (34%, down 4), Trudeau (32%, unchanged) http://t.co/yJYimKIm1Q #cdnpoli #elxn42“
- My take? Once again, we are all looking at top line/horse race numbers with ridiculously small sample sizes. We should be looking at what has been happening in the “best Prime Minister” trendline. And those numbers – from every single pollster – show the same thing: the electorate may not like Harper, but they again think that he is a better choice for Prime Minister than the other two fellows. For a few weeks now, I have felt this election was a referendum on the leaders. If I’m right, Harper is slowly, incrementally winning that referendum.