10.04.2015 10:47 AM

KCCCC Day 63: three bullets for you to ponder

  

67 Comments

  1. Ridiculosity says:

    Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is impressive.

    Smart. Fair. Honest.

    Canadians deserve nothing less from both their representatives and government.

  2. Scott says:

    Harper’s toast. He blew with this long election call. To much time for people to see that Trudeau is up for the job. His positive attitude and sunny disposition contrasts starkly to the other two, plus he’s the only one with a decent plan.

    • Bill says:

      “His positive attitude and sunny disposition”

      Many Americans voted for Obama because he wasn’t Bush and he had a message of hopey/changey and we can all see how that has turned out, not only for the US but for the rest of the world. Mind you, Trudeau would be limited to only screwing up Canada.

      • George says:

        Scott, I would take your comments more seriously if you weren’t the poster-boy for JT-partisan Kool Ade drinkers on this site – you are the “Al in Cranbrook” of the Liberals here. I am glad you take the time to post, it’s always fun to see what you’ll spin next.

        I suppose you have a 50% chance of being right…heck, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

        I don’t think Trudeau is up to the job, and apparantly neither do at least 60-70% of other people, considering the Libs (at best) are polling around 30-35%. He’s doing a good job reciting the lines his handlers have written for him, but he definitely does not have the intellectual heft of his father or the gravitas of many of our former PMs, including PET, Chretien, Mulroney or Pearson.

        The fact that we’re even discussing whether or not he “is ready” says it all. I can’t recall such discussion about any other candidate for PM in my living memory, and I’m almost 41.

        Interesting times ahead, whoever wins. As an observer of the political games that parties play during elections, this one has been fun and I don’t even think it’s really begun yet – next 16 days should be a political junkies’ dream. I have a feeling a lot of heads are going to explode regardless of who wins.

        George

        PS: I (and many others, I presume) don’t want a PM with a sunny disposition, I want someone who is articulate with brains, has a good team and can stand up for our interests on the global stage. I’m not sure any of the three candidates fulfill all of those requirements.

        • Scott says:

          Well George, I guess I have as much right as anyone to my opinion. You might want to remember that I was one of the few who called it for Wynne. The fact that you compare my personal boosterism for my party to the whacked out right wing ideology of professor Cranbrook just tells me you are not too perceptive. The fact anyone was talking about Trudeau not being ready just demonstrates their susceptibility to Harper propaganda. We will have to revisit this conversation on the 20th.

          • George says:

            You are most certainly entitled to your opinion. I was merely stating that it’s hard to take hardcore partisans (of any stripe) seriously, for obvious reasons. The fact the owner of this site calls it as he sees it is wonderfully refreshing – one can root for a political party without being blind to reality or to other opinions or points of view.

            You might be right, and if you are, and JT wins, I’ll be the first to congratulate you. I don’t really have a horse in this race, I think all three of them aren’t worthy of leading our great country.

            Calling Wynne wasn’t exactly a fool’s gambit. Hudak was a joke and nobody in Ontario will ever elect another NDP government, at least not likely in my lifetime. Voting for Wynne? That’s another story 🙂

          • Ridiculosity says:

            Bang!

        • Vancouverois says:

          It really is a damning indictment of Canadian politics that the third party’s critic for youth and amateur sport — who wouldn’t even be an MP if his name were Smith, who was only capable of expressing himself in vapid platitudes until his handlers whipped him into shape — is now in a position where he could conceivably become Prime Minister. It’s much like Trump running for President. Absolutely damning.

          Even if he doesn’t pull it off, our country’s credibility has been damaged. And if he does win, God help us all.

      • cynical says:

        I know I am wasting time rebutting your point, but Obama faced an opposition congress after the first midterms. There is no way to tell whether Obama is, or could have been, an adequate President given the wingnuttery of the Republican House.

        You simply can’t make the comparison.
        Right now, that’s the view the MAJORITY of Canadians. Anybody but Harper. Please.

        • Joe says:

          Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi opposed Obama in his first term? I did not know that. I know that they were the house leaders at the time though.

        • Bill says:

          The mess that Obama has made of US foreign policy and the consequences for the rest of the world has nothing to do with opposition in Congress. The world is in a much more dangerous state thanks to his misguided world view.

          • Ronald O'Dowd says:

            Bill,

            Please. You conveniently don’t seem to recall who didn’t rest until he got Bin Laden.

          • Scott says:

            Right Bill, after Bush started with this whole misguide invasion of Iraq and then damn near bankrupted the whole friggin world you have the audacity to come down on Obama. You wingers are a joke.

        • Jane says:

          PM Harper will win!

          • KBab says:

            Harper looks old, he’ll be retired soon.

            The votes will coalesce in the last few days. Believe it or not
            some people Do Not Like Elections. They tune it out until the last few days.
            Then they decide, and vote.

  3. Ian says:

    Hello Warren, my first post here. Really like the attitude of folks – what’s best for Canada.

    Curious on your thoughts on the referendum of leaders now we are done with the leader debates. What factors are left to change people’s minds?

    My thoughts:

    1) ads
    2) people reaching out to learn… Doubt many undecided left in this camp
    3) newscasts – only if a leader does something good/ bad will this impact people’s thinking

    Others? If the above is it, then whoever can deliver the clear message in their ads will impact the most, I believe. Who’s best at this?

    Ian

  4. ottlib says:

    Both Conservatives and Liberals think they are winning. We will know for certain who is right in 15 days I guess.

    Who is correct Nanos or EKOS? From my perspective the answer usually involves which party you support.

    Best PM estimates, they use the same samples as the horse race numbers. Dismissing one as less than valid while accepting the other as the truth is rather dubious. As well, a three point spread between the three leaders in the leadership estimate is no more impressive as a three point spread in the horse race numbers.

    Anyway, 15 days to go. This is when things really become interesting.

  5. MississaugaPeter says:

    And my 905 NDP candidate who I spoke to last night thinks they are going to win because so many people say that they really like Tom.

    Can’t believe it is Day 63. It’s gonna be an interesting final 15 days if you are into these kinds of things, and if you are reading this, you obviously are.

    Since the start of the campaign, I have been confused by how the Ballot poll on Nanos was different from Preferred PM poll on Nanos. Right now …

    National Ballot:

    35.3% Liberal
    31.0% CONS
    24.3% NDP

    Preferred PM:

    32.6% Harper
    27.7% Trudeau
    24.4% Mulcair

    CONS 4% behind Libs but Harper 5% in front of Trudeau. What gives? I suspect that the same people are being questioned. I guess folks may vote Liberal local, even though they feel Trudeau isn’t up for the job. Likewise, I guess folks may prefer Harper but will vote Liberal because they don’t like their CONS candidate. What gives?

    • MississaugaPeter says:

      I guess I should have also mentioned the daily Has Qualities of a Good Leader poll on Nanos which may contradict the other two, and presently has:

      59.8% Mulcair
      54.9% Harper
      53.9% Trudeau

      I guess it could be the order in which Nanos asks their questions, or maybe, it is folks just fudging, or maybe, … your guess.

  6. Neil says:

    I agree it is wrong to focus on the top line numbers, they ignore the local battles that are far more important this time. Huge but here, the best prime minister number is totally meaningless, Paul Martin le Harper by 15 points, until he want prime minister, the incumbent always leads that number, because he is the pm and most people can picture it. That number never impacts elections. A far more interesting question word be “what PARTY do see see being able to best be the next Government?” or something like that. It is becoming painfully obvious that the NDP and the Cons are one men shows. Is that what people want? I don’t know the answer but I think that is far better then best PM.

  7. Larry C says:

    Could not agree more…….people may not like the PM but as the saying goes, stay with the devil we know, not the devil we do not know…

  8. The Observer says:

    There is also the fact that Harper has been on the right side of the issues: Niqab, refugee stance, terrorist expulsion, avoid deficits. Trudeau (I suspect taking his lead from a largely fawning, but out-of-touch “elite” media) has been on the wrong side of all of these.

    In a representative government system, the government has to represent the views of the voters. Acting like a special interest/defence attorney on the terrorist expulsion and Niqab issues were particularly damning. Pitting oneself against the views of 80% of the population on a current issue will never end well for a politician.

    • JamesSmith says:

      I agree, but if people vote on this one particular issue that has no bearing on our lives whatsoever (how many of us even GO to a citizenship ceremony?) then we are stupid, stupid easy to fool, reactionary, bigoted country.

      • Bill says:

        The Swedes probably thought all those little things really didn’t have any bearing on their lives until it was too late. We do not want to become another Sweden.

        • Jason Smith says:

          Yes…the social problems in Sweden would all be stopped if women would show 3 more inches of their faces for the 30 seconds it takes to take an oath of citizenship.

        • Ronald O'Dowd says:

          Bill,

          Crosby’s play’s success is contingent upon Canadians playing the role of the victim. By all means bring in the scapegoating and us versus them. Canadians are supposed to be better than that. But apparently not, in this Harper Canada.

    • EB says:

      Sadly, I would argue that Mr. Harper is on the popular side, not the right side of most of these issues.

  9. Bluegreenblogger says:

    Hm. I totally agree that the ‘horserace’ numbers are largely full of it. When I see a headline, I read the actual poll. The numbers of undecided voters is declining, a lot of people are making up their minds right now, but there are a number of polls that have solid (meaning large) sample sizes, that explore vote switching between NDP and Liberal, or peer into the composition of the undecided vote. The numbers are startlingly large for this late date, but just because they are undecided, does not mean they are available to the CPC. Any pollster who is ‘correcting’ undecideds proportional to decided support is out to lunch. Abacus has a neat poll from Sep 28: http://abacusdata.ca/the-battle-for-the-change-vote/ I believe that this is where a large movement of votes is going to happen, because large numbers of people come out and say so. They are waiting to join a wave. The Trudeau campaign has done an excellent strategic job. The campaign has been very well planned and executed so far. Trudeau has been ready for every step of the very long race. Just remember for a minute where the Liberal Party was when he threw his hat into the ring for the leadership. From a near death experience they have moved from strength to strength. It has not been accidental, it has been methodical. I expect to see lots of Trudeau with big smiling Liberal crowds right up until E-Day. To remind people that Justin is the likeable guy who has the momentum. Unless the proverbial banana peel trips someone up.

    • Marc says:

      The campaign has been well done – the platform a piece of political brilliance (even if policy-vacuous) but let’s not go overboard. The party almost squandered it all with c51 and only got away with it because the NDP is so full of policy-horny nerds that they actually thought Canadians opposed the Bill – and not opposed the Liberals supporting Harper in a Harper majority. The party gave the NDP the ball and the NDP dropped it. Butts et al deserve immense credit, but the NDP needs a thank you card as well.

      • Bluegreenblogger says:

        Hmm. Do you think that bill C51 resonates so deeply? Yes with activists, but what about the electorate? That will not be what sinks the Liberals if they should actually sink. This is not the stick with which the NDP could beat the Liberals on EDay. Basically, Mulcair is not Layton, but Trudeau very nearly is. Layton without the ‘socialist’ baggage of the NDP around his neck. Not that I lend any credence to ‘socialist’ scaremongering beyond the fact that it is a ‘thing’ in Canadian politics. Anyway, we shall shortly be seeing if team Trudeau can put the puck in the net.

  10. Bluegreenblogger says:

    uh, double post

  11. JamesSmith says:

    I will answer that one question, “Who is right? EKOS or Nanos?“

    I am not a politico but a lowly accountant. But I do make my living off accuracy in numbers so here goes…

    Both Frank Graves and Nik Nanos are good men, and honest people who are credible and utterly competent.

    The only thing we have to go on is their past performance.

    2011 Federal Election:
    Election held on May 2nd.

    May 1st Polls (Night before election :
    Ekos: CON 33.9 LIB 21.0 NDP 31.2 GRN 6.4 BQ 6.0

    Nanos: CON 37.1 LIB 20.5 NDP 31.6 GRN 5.7 BQ 3.8

    ACTUAL ELECTION RESULT:
    CON 39.62% LIB 18.91% NDP 30.63% GRN 6.04% BQ 3.91%

    2014 Ontario Election June 12, 2014:
    ACTUAL ELECTION RESULT:
    LIB 38.65% CON 31.25% NDP 23.75% GRN 4.84%

    Ekos June 11th: LIB 36.6 CON 30.2 NDP 21.5 GRN 6.6

    Nanos (Last poll taken on May 26th): LIB 38.6 CON 31.1 NDP 23.7 GRN 5.3

    METHODOLOGIES:
    NANOS:
    A national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Weekly ballot tracking is based on random landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adult Canadians, and may be weighted by age and gender. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. (The weighing is done as anywhere from 40 to 60 per cent of eligible voters failing to cast a ballot in any given election, pollsters must attempt to divine whose party preferences actually matter on election day.)

    EKOS:
    “High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.”

    WHO IS MORE ACCURATE?
    The Nanos track record is scary good, going back to past Ontario and Federal elections, which you can see here: http://www.nanosresearch.com/company/PDF/2011%20-%20Nanos%20Election%20Track%20Record.pdf

    The fact is, Nanos’ polls are based on voter intention, and are ridiculously close…and yes, to answer the question based PURELY on past performance, closer than Ekos.

    In the 2006 federal election, Nanos predicted the results to within one tenth of one percentage point for the four major parties – a record in Canadian polling history…and one of the closest polls to actual result in the history of the Westminster system anywhere.

    So the edge to Nanos. Manly because his weighing formula–whatever it is– seems to work, his deadly accuracy in his record (I highly recommend clicking the link I provided above) and his knowledge and accurate record of the most volatile and confusing province in all of this: Ontario.

  12. Sean says:

    Pretty much exactly what I have been thinking.

    Also, an important component of the methodology is the *order* in which the questions are asked.

    If they ask “voting intention” first, I suspect the Tories will get more positive respondents.

    If they are asking “preferred PM” first, some people will register their grudging satisfaction with the Tories with that first question…. and choose Liberals on the second question.

    But Warren is correct…. Preferred PM rules all with two weeks out. Its what drives almost all voting intentions in this age when local campaigns are no more.

    • JamesSmith says:

      That is not what Nik Nanos says.

      According to Canada’s historically most accurate pollster, Trudeau and Harper are in a statistical tie for preferred PM, with Harper trending down and Trudeau trending up.

      Nanos says every year he wraps up his final polling that “Voter Intention” is what determines popular vote, and he’s always right.

      The preferred PM for Nanos, Canada’s most accurate pollster, is within the Margin of Error and trending up for Trudeau (including nightly results):

      31.7% preferred Harper (Down 0.9%)
      29.4% preferred Trudeau (Up 1.7%)
      22.7% preferred Mulcair 22.7% ( Down 1.7%)
      4.6% preferred May 4.6%
      2.4% preferred Duceppe 2.4%
      9.2% were unsure.

      But that’s just preferred PM.

      For the score on the qualities of a good leaders:
      Mulcair 56.7%
      Trudeau 54.1%
      Harper 52.0%

      The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

      Nik Nanos added something very interesting as a note to his: “Of note, although Mulcair is third as preferred PM, he scores highest compared to any federal leader on the qualities of a good political leader measure which is an independent question for each leader (Mulcair 56.7%, Trudeau 54.1%, Harper 52.0%). This suggests that Mulcair has good will as a party leader personally but is not as comparatively strong when Canadians think about who they prefer as PM.”

      In other words, all those NDPers who cite Mulcair as preferred PM may not cast a vote for him. And many Liberals likely indicated that Mulcair is the person they think would be their preferred PM, but likely won’t go that way as they intended that they would vote Liberal.

      Also, according to Nik Nanos, Harper has trended down as preferred PM for the past 5 days, while Trudeau has trended up at the same time.

      Also of note, the people who preferred Mulcair? Their 2nd choice was Trudeau by 58% which is astounding.

      Now you have to remember, as the NDP drops back, this 2nd choice will generally attract more support.

      Also, you have to remember that the National number for Harper are skewed because that 32% that he has as preferred PM includes the well over 60% preferred PM support he has in the Prairies, due to the threat that Niqabs pose in that part of the country.

      The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Canada is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. In this…Harper is 3rd in Ontario (but way out front in Alberta).

  13. Al in Cranbrook says:

    My guts tell me that this is going to be one of those election results that shocks all the usual suspects…just like here in BC, the previous PC win in Alberta, Liberal win in Quebec, and especially Cameron’s win in Britain, all of which ended up majority governments.

    1) All the ABC noise is coming from, realistically speaking, a relatively small percentage of voters on the left. The amount of noise they make – as is so typical of the left – is totally out of proportion to their numbers. The vast majority have learned to tune this out, if for no other reason than it’s just bloody well annoying. Always essentially the same groups, always the same bitching, always the same end-of-civilization-as-we-know-it hyperbole and hysterics. None of which ever resembles reality, or ever will. Ever.

    2) Aside from afore mentioned hysterics, probably 50%, if not more, will concede that, given all the challenges since 2008 – the big crash, Afghanistan, EU member meltdowns, China’s tumbling markets, collapse of oil prices, ISIS – Harper and the CPC government have managed Canada’s way through it all relatively unscathed, if not with accolades. There is no compelling reason to oust this government, certainly not in exchange for whomever happens to be the handiest du jour…such as we just saw in Alberta, whom are now beginning to realize, in spades, the real and very serious impacts of their impetuosity.

    3) Harper is leading in the preferred PM category across the polls for two reasons: a ) He is, by far, the most Prime Ministerial, and b ) the other two clearly are not Prime Ministerial…but especially Trudeau! Which is why, when the question was asked about his first meeting as Canada’s PM with Putin, laughter spontaneously erupted before Trudeau even opened his mouth to speak. I’m sure Justin is a nice guy, just not the guy most people want representing Canada on the world stage. What they want is a “leader” whom knows his files (inside out), knows of what he speaks, and does so with an authority expected of the office…and is neither intimidated nor diminished by the status and/or power of those around him at the table. Sorry, but on this count, damn few see Trudeau in this manner…indeed, the thought of him in such a role scares a great many.

    4) This is relevant in this election because not since WW2, or possibly the Pearson era, has Canada been more prominent in global affairs. Thus, who we choose to represent us in global affairs is important…very important. And, contrary to the Disneyesque world view held, if not clung to, by so many on the left, a great many Canadians have little taste or desire for a return to the days of Canada the interminable suck up at the UN, and/or door mat to the wild-ass aspirations and half-baked schemes of over the top activists…socialist, environmentalist, or otherwise. Do not mistake Joe and Jill Average Canadian’s silence for acceptance, or even acquiescence. Again, for the most part he/she has just tuned out most, if not all, of their incessant noise. They know they will get their final say on election day.

    Silent majority. IMHO, going to be big factor this time around.

    • Bluegreenblogger says:

      ROFL, when someone dresses up their opinions as those of ‘the silent majority’, it is generally because so few people actually agree with them. I am curious as to what evidence you think you have to support your conclusions? You tell us that ‘probably more than 50%’ will be forced to agree with your compelling logic. OK, I’ll bite. Which 50% is this? It is fine to have opinions. I have several of my own. They tend to be based on something other than my fondest desires.

  14. Eric Weiss says:

    I got a call from nanos last week. I lied on every question.

    • Brent Crofts says:

      I’ve heard people say stuff like this before and I find it interesting.

      Can you elaborate on why you did this? Only curious.

      • Eric Weiss says:

        Three reasons mainly,

        1. I can’t bring myself to vote for any party this election. It’s like choosing the best STD to have. Never in my 25 years of voter eligibility have I looked at a ticket and said no thank you to all options.

        2. I think it’s incredibly rude to ask anybody how they intend to vote. It’s a secret ballot.

        3. I’m a cheeky bastard.

      • Eric Weiss says:

        Forgot one…

        4. F&ck pollsters… They’re no better or less annoying than telephone solicitors.

  15. A. Voter says:

    At this point, 308ridings site projects CON 123 LIB 112 NDP 100 BQ 2 GRN 1
    Election Predictor Project has CON 95 LIB 70 NDP 86 BQ 1 GRN 1 Too close to call 85

  16. Jon says:

    I’ll keep tossing my hat in the ring with the following:

    – The biggest dynamic yet to play out is the strategic shift to the ABC party of choice. It looks like a certainty that this will be the Liberals, and this will move a LOT of votes.
    – The NDP will try to win the next 10 days on opposition to the TPP. The only way this works is if it is clearly a bad deal for dairy farmers, a primarily CPC constituency that could flip in a hurry if their liveliehood is threatened.
    – Barring such a TPP related shift, the next week will continue to see the NDP bleeding votes to the LPC – I wouldn’t be surprised to see them under 20% nationally.
    – If LPC is close on the 19th, they’ll get a 1% bounce from Greens shifting for ABC purposes – these folks will be a game-time decision though.

  17. Liam Young says:

    I’m voting strategically so hopefully Canada wins. So far, the best resources for strategic voting are:
    Strategicvoting.ca
    Leadnow.ca

  18. You are dead right about two things: sample sizes are dumb stupid, lazy, too small; and that Harper is slowly emerging from [and will confidently stay on] the upside of his 10 year referendum…

  19. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    My preferred metrics are direction of the country and direction of the party — right or wrong track.

  20. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    I am among those who believe that Trudeau has the capacity to win bigger than Clark. In my mind, that necessarily means a Liberal majority wave.

  21. Jason Smith says:

    “I suggest people go to the @globeandmail @CTVNews websites at 6 am ET Monday for the numbers – interesting.”

    Just tweeter by Nik Nanos himself.

  22. fan590 says:

    A vote for Mulcair is now a vote for Harper.

    Wonder what the Dippers will do now?

    • Ronald O'Dowd says:

      fan590,

      Not exactly breaking news. After all, wasn’t it Jack that helped take down Martin???

      They probably have been cursed since then and are now paying the pipper.

  23. Jack D says:

    My take?

    Harper is doing a great job rising upwards to his glass ceiling. He’s maxing out what ever vote potential he has and its not a trend that indicative of people warming up to Harper, just that people are coalescing around the guy they already knew they were going to vote for but didn’t want to say it. There is a finite portion of Canadians that are willing to vote Conservative again and Harper has done a good job at maxing out that potential vote.

    The problem?

    NDP is sinking like a dead body tied to an anchor. Their push for TPP fell flat because it turns out the TPP isn’t really going to be a factor since it might not get done in time for them to heroically oppose it. So this leaves the NDP change vote migrating back to camp Liberal under Trudeau. These are the change voters that would rather set fire to their hair than put Harper in for another 4 years.

    The result?

    Honestly, who knows? Its so close in terms of seat projections that it could end up being a seat or two that makes the difference between opposition benches and government benches for each party. One thing is for sure, this is turning out to be a good-ol’ 2 way race between the Liberals and Conservatives. Things are about to get crazy.

  24. Ryan says:

    I watched Trudeau’s speech online today that he delivered at the Brampton rally. He looks and sounds very comfortable and confident at this point in the campaign. He countered Harper’s politics of fear in a very efffective way that will resonate with many Canadians who are not bitter, but want to be optimistic about the future. Harper has to be longing for the days of Dion and Ignatieff because Trudeau certainly has the royal jelly and can work a crowd. He came out of the debates unscathed and he knows now that the momentum is shifting his way. If he plays his cards right, it looks like it will be very difficult for the NDP to avoid bleeding votes to the Liberals in the final two weeks.

    • fan590 says:

      Good post.

      I always wondered why those ‘not ready’ commercials were made in that way. Anyone who has seen JT debate knows he brings his fast ball and isn’t afraid to throw at the head.

    • Eric Weiss says:

      That’s because you’ve already drank the koolaid. See Warren’s post today on confirmation bias.

  25. You guys are hilarious. BTW, speaking of guys, how come women hardly ever comment on these threads? Also why do I have the feeling that the vast majority of you folks are older white christian males. I might be wrong but usually my spidey sense doesn’t tingle for no reason…

  26. RogerX says:

    I voted Conservative in 2011 to see what they would do with a majority, but in this election I see subtle swings starting up. I see the Cons stuck with their 30-32% core vote while the NDP support is softening in Quebec and even across Canada. I sense a Liberal breakthrough surge that will manifest itself on the week before Monday voting day.

    Two factors will boost the Liberals:
    (1) Spooked Dippers will strategically vote Liberal, while soft lefty Liberals will stick with Justin on a hunch that he is winning and they want to be on the bandwagon.
    (2) Justin will make a late emotional appeal to the 18-28 y.o. youth voters to help him overthrow the Harper Cons, just because the Cons are evil and a patriarchal bunch of old men. Rebellious, angry youth are desperate because their job prospects are lousy with no apparent hope…. so might as well vote for promises, not assurances… and overthrow the old order for better or worse. Emotion trumping logic.

    Like I’ve said before: a Liberal Red Bull Youth Wave will swamp both the CPC and NDP, and they won’t know what hit them…. a youth voter tsunami for the Justin Liberals.

    Have you noticed that all LPC TV election ads feature leader Justin walking and talking live to you…. and only now Mulcair is showing up, while Harper is hiding? Wonder why?

    The only hope the Cons have is for an even lower voter turnout due to election fatigue and confusion, so their low core vote will sustain them into at least a minority government, again.

    • Eric Weiss says:

      Youth don’t vote. They only talk about voting. It won’t be any different this year.

      • Bluegreenblogger says:

        Tell it to Obama. Youth can vote if properly motivated. I doubt they will, but if anyone can motivate them it is Steven Harper. A lot of people are spending a lot of effort to help them do it too.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


*