— Musings —10.13.2015 10:25 AM
KCCCC Day 72: live from Trudeau Rally (updated)
- I am at a Justin Trudeau rally – as media! Son One is a Trudeau maniac, and asked me to take him. So I am at the back with a notepad, ever-observant for the first Adler-Kinsella segment on SiruisXM 167 tonight!
- Trudeau has some very impressive candidates here – James Maloney, Ahmed Hussen, Arif Vitani and others. The event is at the Cadillac Lounge on Queen West and is well-attended. Pic below and more to come.
Son One is somewhere in there.
UPDATE: Trudeau is losing his voice. He stuck to his well-known talking points, however, in a brief speech – taxing the richest one per cent, railing against “divisions,” Liberals are the only party that provides “a progressive voice,” lots of references to the “real change” stuff, and so on – and the crowd liked it.
The place wasn’t packed, but it was well-attended, I’d say. Lots of young people. I said to a couple candidates in attendance (one who worked for me in a McGuinty war room, one who worked with me on the Ignatieff effort) that if young people come out en masse to vote, Harper loses. If they don’t, he wins. That’s what it comes down to, in these final days.
Mr. K,
From your experience, at this stage, would the various war rooms have a list of individuals from other parties that would be willing to cross the floor, if their own party is a few seats away from a win?
What does that look like behind the scenes? Are they already giving the “wink, wink, nudge, nudge” to potential defectors?
I imagine that if the Liberals are a handful of seats away from a win, there would be a number of dippers willing to change colours to ensure Harper is defeated.
In Beaches-East York there was a huge overflow crowd at the Beacher Cafe earlier this morning to greet Justin Trudeau and local Liberal Candidate Nathaniel Erskine-Smith as well.
Commuters and truck drivers honked their horns and gave the crowd the thumbs-up sign as they drove by…
I don’t know about where others live, but around here I’ve noticed a lot of houses that had Goodyear lawn signs no longer have them. Some have been replaced by May signs while others have no signs.
You may consider Arif impressive, but he has no chance there in Peggy Nash’s neighborhood after GK shocked her in 2008. Doesn’t help that Telford was riding president there as well for many years.
WK, who the heck did the Liberals add to the campaign team that 1) it has been so organized; 2) been able to adjust on a dime; and 3) written a lengthy and coherent document? In the background I know of relentless and smart, hard working folks like Arnold and Thalmann, but they alone did not right a ship the past 70 days. Who is the unsung hero in the back.
The aforementioned is acknowledgement of the obvious, Trudeau and the Liberal campaign, in spite of losing a majority in the few months prior to the campaign, have run a very well oiled machine.
Will that result in victory, probably, but that is not guaranteed because there are still 6 days to go and really, no one knows who is going to show up to vote and who they will vote for. I am confused that no one does exit polls here. Are they illegal? Who got the advance poll vote out? Did everyone because of the use of election technology, or was it just everyday folks urge to vote?
At Thanksgiving, both my oldest daughter, my wife, and my mom said they like Trudeau. The rest of us were quiet in pleasant shock because we rarely her them voice a political opinion. If this is indicative of what is out there, the Harper win could really end up as 1993 again. But a nagging feeling (maybe biased) tells me that the quiet majority may not be voting for the Liberals like they did not in previous elections.
A repeat of 1993, when the Progressive Conservatives were knocked down to only two seats? I doubt that very, very much.
There isn’t much I’m willing to predict about this election, but I’m willing to bet that the Conservatives will be Official Opposition at the worst. I doubt they’ll be knocked down to third party, and I really don’t see any chance of a total 1993-like collapse.
You are right, there is no Reform or Wildrose Party for the folks to vote for. But I could see a third place finish for the CONS (there is a desire for change out there). However, extremely unlikely. More likely, CON minority that could be a majority if their coming nasty attack ads work and they pickup 30+ seats in Quebec (which I could see happen). But then, the CONS could flounder in Ontario and Trudeau gets the majority of Quebec’s seats and we have a Liberal majority. Today, I see the result unpredictable.
Trudeau himself is the unsung hero Peter. Just like Mulroney said ” people who underestimate Justin Trudeau do so at their peril”.
Strong Crowd out for Trudeau…Doug and Rob Ford trotted out for Harper. I think Harper must be in a bit concern if the Fords Brothers are at his rallies in T.O.
I’m not sure what that means…it could mean that it’s obvious that Harper is going to lose, and these oafs are just out to make a good team spirit show of things, that will not alter the outcome at all. I wondered the same about Baird’s entry into the campaign on the weekend…too late to do any good, so he’s only doing it to be a good sport?
I am sure the Fords were not invited, but they showed up anyways thinking they could help.
Harper was all buddy, buddy with Rob when he thought Rob could help him in the past, I am sure Harper wants nothing to do with Rob or Doug now.
Here in Ottawa the slate of CPC candidates is clearly bottom of the barrel.
Most were hand picked by the little Goebbels wannabe from Nepean.
A employment equity cop hire, an electrician contractor with his hand in every government contract, a snot nosed Goebbels hanger-on, etc, etc. It’s no wonder The Boss refused to let any of them near the recent debate hosted by the city’s mayor.
In Kanata it is tough choice, vote for a CPC party hack who steals lawn signs, or vote for a Liberal candidate who was an RCAF officer in front line units and just happened to be a trail blazing female flight crew navigator. As much as I hate to admit it, the CPC brand in Ottawa is dead, even the Kaiser may not be able to hold his nose and vote for Little Goebbels this time.
I also live in Ottawa and agree with half of what you said. My sense is that Team Blue is going to get crushed in the National Capital Region, and could lose every seat except for Pierre Poilievre’s riding. However, a recent article in the Ottawa Sun (http://www.ottawasun.com/2015/10/12/tories-may-regret-shutting-out-potential-ottawa-candidates) notes how the Harperites passed on a great group of candidates.
If Team Blue gets their act together next election, and don’t let Skippy Poilievre ruin things for them, they could make a comeback here in the not so distant future. I am not a Conservative (you couldn’t pay me enough money to vote for Harper) but I don’t believe for a second that the Conservative brand is dead in Ottawa and surrounding areas.
Justin Trudeau reminds me of the VJ’s on the 90s MuchMusic (not the crappy modern version). The VJ’s seemed to walk randomly around the MuchMusic “environment” as the bigwigs liked to call the studio. However, their movements were tightly scripted by the director and floor director. Justin looks like he can randomly move in any situation. However, his floor handlers tightly control his movements. That may be his success so far.
After the election, it will be interesting to analyze the actions by the different parties. For the Conservatives, will having tight control through vetting attendees and not allowing their candidates to participate in debates actually work or not. On the local debates, I do find that they are generally ineffective in changing the opinions of people attending them as they are either party supporters or they have fixed opinions already. For the NDP, what caused the dip in support for the dippers? Was Tom Mulcair being too nice for too long? Why did he get trapped by the niqab issue while Justin Trudeau didn’t? Was there a problem with the ideological positioning of the NDP? Too right or too left? As for the Liberals, what can Trudeau do next time to improve the results for his party?
I look forward to reading your report on the rally, as I value your perspective Warren. No matter how much I try I cannot warm to Trudeau. While he is obviously intelligent, a good father and means well, there were too many red flags for me to vote Liberal.
For me, Trudeau is too impulsive (e.g. removing Scott Andrews from caucus without due process), is prone to political stunts (e.g. “ending” the Liberal Senate caucus), and does not take criticism of his leadership well, as noted on this site.
My hunch (fear?) is that Trudeau is going to disappoint a lot of progressives post-election with his prickly side. Without a doubt Mulcair can be a jerk, and his rough reputation has turned off a lot of voters. What I think will surprise people, however, is that Trudeau can also be an ass. The difference is that right now, in the dying days of this campaign, people want to project hope onto a candidate, and it is easier to see hope in the Liberal campaign.
But come post-election, my sense is that Trudeau will once again become the mediocre Parliamentarian that we saw for the past several years. As well, the positive message that he is offering could be sullied by his negative qualities. I hope that I am wrong — I really do — but I have serious doubts about Trudeau.
Update posted!
Thanks! While I do have serious misgivings of Trudeau, one thing that does encourage me is that his campaign is inspiring many young people. Your report echoes what I have heard elsewhere.
Kelly McParland: Trudeau has pulled off one of the great campaigns of recent history, a flagrantly dishonest run for office based on a pledge of honesty
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/kelly-mcparland-how-i-came-to-admire-justin-trudeau
Translates as:
He can communicate better than Dion.
He’s a street fighter who will fight to win, unlike tone deaf Iggy who didn’t listen to smart people who know better.
He’s the next PM.
Uh, the message of the artickle is quite clear. There is no translation needed.
Trudeau isn’t being honest with voters.
Should have been article.
“Truth” is relative. It’s called politics.
A lot of us weren’t sure JT had THIS much street fighter in him.
I see a strong Jean Chretien influence. This is a good thing for Canada.
“I’m willing to run a deficit for three years so we can invest in Canada” isn’t honest enough for you?
If you’re looking for tall tales, you may want to do a little research into Harper’s ludicrous claim that he’s a strong economic manager…
I linked in the thread below , but the thread was at an end:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111268/how-gallups-likely-voter-models-work.aspx
That’s a likely voter model. All pollsters have one at their disposal. Before this election in both Canada and the US polls close to election had to be of likely voters to have any credibility, for two critical (though obvious)reasons:
1) almost half of the population doesn’t vote, and
2) those who don’t are not representative of this who do. They tend to be younger and left leaning (Gallup specifically has a numerical qualifier for age for instance).
We can approximate who will likely vote, but we all know how that will look. So this election the cheerleading for Trudeau by the media (at unheard of levels) is also being matched with this unprecedented head-in-sand approach that essentially denies demographic voting realities. Yes it is true that if the youth show up this time Trudeau will win. The empiricle assumption is that won’t happen and no-one seems to want to quantify that.
Which pollster breaks from the pack?
I think it’s going to come down to whether he can convince the NDP to support him through his past mimbo (elaine benes) statements. That, and whether he can work with Mulcair, the guy who will hold the # of seats required to push him over the top.
NDP will work with Libs.
Otherwise they vanish. Also allows Sleepy Tom to keep his job and not need to do another re-finance.
Here’s the thing:
Trudeau’s pitch to progressive voters (especially in these kinds of ridings) is much, much more palatable than Mulcair’s. With credit and consideration given to the momentum the Liberals are picking up, a lot of progressive voters are more receptive to Trudeau right now than they are to Mulcair.
The NDP’s message has become considerably more muffled and frustrated in the last week and half. The campaign promises they made are failing to garner any real traction amongst these progressive voters and Mulcair is fumbling the pitch to be the messiah of progressives. Focused like a laser, he continues his attacks on Trudeau out of desperation but fails to realize that he’s already lost the war for the agent of change and is now losing the war for progressivism.
Trudeau has become everything Mulcair could have ever wanted to be and has now just resigned to doing the dirty work of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.
Ah, but… as I’m sure we’re all aware, the Liberals have a long history of campaigning from the left but governing from the right. What happens if/when Trudeau fails to deliver on all of his promises?
We can only hope he fails to deliver every single one of them.
I always hear about big Get Out The Vote teams for Election Day, but as you note Warren how concerted and targeted are those efforts for the youth voters? They’re always pushed front & centre at rallies & events (especially progressive ones) so we know that there’s some of them around that are engaged, but what are those people doing to get their peers out?
Think I heard yesterday in a CBC segment roughly 2/3rds of those 18 to 34 didn’t vote in 2011.
Looking at the latest Angus Reid poll, 40% of the 18 to 34 year olds said they support the Liberals.
Even if half of them vote, the Liberals national number drops from 31% to 25%.
All the pollsters have pretty much said what Warren did. If the 18 to 34 show up in the numbers their polling at, Harper loses, if not Harper wins.
Also interesting regarding Warrens “shy Tory” vote – Those CPC supporters who don’t participate in polls or publicly t support the CPC but always show up in large numbers on voting day:
Ekos is doing live operator and robocall polking. Live operator – response favours Liberals and NDP. Robocall respondents – overwhelming support CPC
Well, the advance polls give us an indication that this will be a high turnout election. As you point out, conservatives always vote, so the increase in numbers at advance polls cannot be due to conservative turnout…
The number of people who voted in the advance polls in 2011 was up 34.5% compared to 2008, and that election turned out pretty well for the conservatives.
The key point is very few early votes went to Iggy in 2011.
One reason turnout for advance polls is higher is because they are promoted much more. There was a time advance polls were considered for the elderly and infirm. In my province, you had to give the people working at the poll a reason why you weren’t voting on the regular election day before receiving your ballot at one point.
300,000 eligible, about 1/3 actually voted for Trudeau for leader
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/300000-eligible-to-vote-in-federal-liberal-leadership-race-party/article9336372/
If that kind of capture rate is repeated, WK is correct, Harper wins.
Wow! Just now from the National Post:
“Wynne says Ontario would drop pension plan if a federal Liberal government expands CPP”
This makes sense. The point after all of the having a OPP is to help people save for retirement who don’t have a private pension, not merely to stick a finger in Harper’s eye. If the CPP is enhanced– admittedly, it’s forced-saving but will be effective– then there’s no need for an OPP.
A provincial premier trying to influence a federal election, there most certainly is a need for the OPP, as in Ontario Provincial police.
This isn’t just her saying publicly she supports Trudeau. As a private citizen she’s absolutely within her rights to do so.
That’s not what this is. She’s using her position as premier to say to voters elect Trudeau and I’ll scrap the unpopular ORPP.
It’s fucking extortion.
Oh for heaven’s sake calm down and breathe. Federal and Provincial leaders have gone toe-to-toe in elections in each other’s jurisdictions since at least the time of Mitchell Hepburn if not before that. No one called it defamation or slander when Harper went around calling Notley “a disaster”. Calling Wynne’s musings on pensions extortion is more than a wee bit hyperbolic Matt.
And Harper is using his position to attack the premier of Alberta. It’s a free country.
WOW. It looks like the Conservatives might lose and Matt wants to start arresting Liberal politicians. Seriously? Matt do you ever read your stuff before posting?
Extortion? Try telling that to Danny Williams.
What did Williams promise voters if they voted against Harper when he was Premier?
All that says is the Liberals don’t have the big lead in Ontario that some of the polls suggest.
Truly pathetic display from Kathleen Wynne.
This guarantees Ontario goes Red and Justin becomes PM.
Great move, well coordinated.
Will help Kathleen during the next provincial election, too. The real loser is Patrick Brown.
So, Wynne essentially admits that the ORPP is just a political football to get Trudeau elected, and it’s not really about retirement benefits for Ontarions. She is literally campaigning against her own budget plank to elect Trudeau.
Nope, nothing cynical, pandering, and hypocritical about that, LOL!
It means nothing of the sort Matt.
Last provincial election wynne said she would not implememt the OPP if the federal government updated the CPP. If Harper had done that as Jim Flaherty suggested, there would be no need for the OPP
I’m pretty sure they have been openly saying this for years.
Meanwhile further west in town Harper was at a rally with the Ford brothers, which I don’t quite understand. Their presence next to him could help hold on to Opitz’s seat in Etobicoke Centre I guess, but wouldn’t their presence also turn off the kind of swing voters Harper needs across the country at large?
Justin, suck on a lemon. I’m not kidding! In my early years singing for my father’s choir, before midnight mass they’d bring out a tray of lemon wedges and our job was to each grab one and, well, grimace. But it worked like a charm, and we were all in “good” voice after that.
That said, we are down to the wire. Susan Riley predicted a last-minute rush toward one of the opposition parties, and her feeling was it would be to the Liberals. We can only hope.
I voted in the advance polls. The turnout in my riding was astounding. Wonder what it means?
Really?
A writer for the Ottawa Citizen thinks there is going to be a mad rush of support to the Liberals?
I’m SHOCKED – said nobody anywhere.
Man the con bots are in full panic.
Con bots??? Really? Is that the best comment you have?
Hmmm. I did something unusual for me. I took the Subway across the city after midnight yesterday. I was really startled by something I will share. A group of about a dozen kids got on my car. They spent the next 10 minutes arguing over whether they should vote for the Liberals or the NDP. I was surprised that they were old enough to vote, but even more surprised when the debate was settled when it turned out most of them had voted at the advance polls. You could have bowled me over with a feather. So is the youth vote turning out? I don’t have a clue, but anecdotally……
One province where voter turnout will jump significantly is Alberta. They’re still choking on a lesson learned the hard way.
Been watching federal elections closely since the late ’60s. I cannot think of a leader of the three main political parties whom has been singularly less qualified or capable for the office of PM than J. Trudeau.
I still think…and yes, hope, too, because I’m genuinely afraid for my country…that the silent majority is going to have their way in this election. In large part because a great many, particularly over the age of 40, whom have the wisdom gained of experience, and with something to lose, and like me, simply cannot fathom him leading Canada. Certainly not representing our nation on the international stage.
Completely unfathomable.
You need to give it a rest Al. Nobody is listening to you. The silent majority in this country that you keep referring to are mainly centre left voters. Maybe a nice cabin in the mountains for the next 8 to 12 years of Liberal government.
I don’t see how it’s unfathomable. People have realized they don’t have anything to lose because the economy has been meh under Harper, and they’re tired of the constant barrage of negativity coming from the Conservatives as exemplified by the shark-jumping moment where they promised the snitch line.
So, Quito Maggi of Mainstreet has just called it as a majority for the Liberals. “only question left is how big”
Given that there are still six days to go, that seems a bit premature to me. But then, I’m not sure what his track record is like. Has he been accurate in past elections?