10.14.2015 07:04 AM

KCCCC Day 73: three predictions, plus what the Hell happened over Thanksgiving

 

  • Few will go as far as Mainstreet’s boss did last night (see here), but something happened over Thanksgiving. Clearly.  The election had turned into a referendum on Stephen Harper, and folks gathered over the weekend to talk about what to do about that.  The NDP wasn’t an option anymore – the niqab, plus this stuff, is likely why – so the ABC folks started moving towards the Grits.  And they’re still moving.
  • Quebec voters could consolidate still, behind the CPC.  But with the NDP down to single digits in Ontario, just about, la belle province may be the Tories’ last hope.  It feels like folks have settled in.  They don’t seem to be in a mood to change their minds, after such a long campaign.  And their mood is clearly not terribly favourable towards the incumbent.
  • Anyway, here’s three predictive things about all that.  First, my prediction (and that of three senior Liberal friends) back in February, which now may just come true.  Second, last night’s prediction, suggesting that the LPC is the only party that stands to “win.” Third, the first Adler-Kinsella get together on Canada Talks on SiriusXM last night.  Have a great one.

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78 Comments

  1. Scott says:

    The universe unfolds as it should, hopefully with all Liberals on board. Love Trudeau’s big tent approach, something that has been missing for a while.

    • Matt says:

      Well, Iggy tried it.

      More people seem to buying into it now.

    • MississaugaPeter says:

      Let’s start with the accolades. It is extremely hard to be in the spotlight for so long and not make an error, and for 73 days, Trudeau should be commended for that. I think very few thought he would go this long.

      But, today, he pulled a Mulcair. Talking majority, when less than 40% are for you, and over 60% are against you, is idiotic.

      Like 2011, no one expected or wanted a majority government. Harper had NOT earned it, and the other two were not trusted. The same is today.

      In 2011, due to our fine polling folks, everyone thought that Harper was running around 35% and the desired minority would happen. But the pollsters were wrong and Harper got an accidental majority.

      You want to galvanize the anti-Trudeau vote, Trudeau, keep on talking about majority and start imagining drape colours like Mulcair and his folks did when they had a lead.

      It’s the prefect storm for Harper. Trudeau talking majority, no one thinking Harper will be prime minister (why even bother attacking him now?), the professional, endless Conservatives attack ads (including attacking the legalization of marijuana) are getting ready to bombard us like a Sprite commercial during a Raptors game.

      At the start of the day I wouldn’t have dared say it, but now I am prepared to make a prediction: Another accidental Harper majority.

      • Greyapple says:

        I agree his majority talk looks cocky and could backfire, as did his foolish talk about “telling Putin off to his face.” Didn’t exactly give the impression of a global diplomat. We shall see if his numbers keep going up.

        • Cory says:

          They haven’t even won yet an all ready the campaign co-chair is sending out emails to lobbyists with advice on how to deal with the new government…

        • Matt says:

          Nanos this morning showed no movement for any of the parties, well they were all up around 0.4% which is insignificant, between Sunday and Tuesday.

      • Jim Curran says:

        Give it up bro. I told you 6 years ago this guy is a rock star and unstoppable. Did I not?

        • MississaugaPeter says:

          Yes, Jim, I remember your middle age man crush for JT.

          Saw the parting of the wave in 2006 in Montreal so I knew he had the charisma.

          I definitely underestimated (and I am not a minority) his resilience and ability. And win or lose, he will get another kick at the can. Something that I and other old fart Liberals will not try to prevent because it would be futile. The Liberals are stuck with him for another election cycle.

          I hope the Liberal higher ups have treated you well since you have been extremely loyal and I am sure completely giving of your time and energy.

          • Scott says:

            Peter, Trudeau was asked about a majority, was he supposed to say he didn’t want one. I thought he answered well. It’s the media making a big deal of it.

          • MississaugaPeter says:

            Scott, yes, if you are like me who thinks that the majority of Canadians really do not want any of the three with a majority, he should have skirted around the issue.

            But I believe he did say it in French hoping that Quebecers would vote for MPs of the party perceived to be in power after Monday.

  2. I think there will be a Liberal majority. The question is, how big? The ballot question is absolutely that of Stephen Harper, yea or nay?

    The sharp irony here, is that Harper’s rai·son d’ê·tre has long been the utter destruction of the Liberal Party of Canada and he’s losing to a photogenic guy in his early 40’s who probably doesn’t have a whole lot going on upstairs in comparison to giants like his father or Jean Chretien (who is basically SMART. Period. Full stop. I would vote for him again and again. Jesus, he actually made people feel good about their country.) Folks I’m talking to want something other than partisan gamesmanship coming out of Ottawa. They’re tired of snubbing of the national media. The control freak paranoid crap. The frat boy BS that exists among those in the PMO. It’s just … exhausting.

    When Harper loses next week, it will be due to the fact that he has burned everyone out with the negative garbage. Hell, I voted for Harper twice and I’m voting Liberal on Monday. The candidate in my riding is good people. The Conservatives need to rebrand. They need to rebuild. They need to start selling hope and stop selling division.

    I’m out.

  3. Brent Crofts says:

    I do not want Justin Trudeau to be the PM and I certainly didn’t vote Liberal.

    However, if it must be, then all I can do is wish him well and be hopeful that he does a great job for Canada.

  4. The Observer says:

    Actually what happened over the weekend was an exaggeration of a recognized phenomenon (because of holidays) where the left is over polled (conservative families are increasingly refusing to do polls but on busy holidays this is compounded).

    Angus Reid was just interviewed about his BC polling disaster being out double digits, over counting youth.

    Consider that these low budget polls are not even doing likely voter models, and you have the perfect storm. The polling will tighten over the next several days, but it won’t be enough to stave off the disaster for the polling industry in Canada.

    • Matt says:

      Well, what you said might be true, BUT if the polls – correct or not – show the Libs with momentum it can A) push NDP support to the Libs and B) push undecideds to the Libs to be part of the win.

      It can have a vote supressing or vote rallying affect

      We know from polling data a huge portion of the Liberal surge is from the 18 to 34 group who’s turnout is historically very low, I think around 33% in 2011. Does seeing the Libs with a 6 or 7 point lead make them less likely to actually vote? Do they think the Libs got it locked up without me, so I’ll just stay home. Or do they get motivated to go and vote so they can say I knocked out Harper?

      Do the CPC voters say we’re losing, screw it I ain’t standing in line to vote. Or do the say I gotta do my part to try and hammer Trudeau?

      • The Observer says:

        Remarkable the talk of the young “cell phone generation”, who on weekends, are never farther than several inches from their phone which are rapidly answered (as it holds the key to a successful/social weekend. Contast to the busy suburbanite driving kids then cooking turkey for 14 family members, whose phones are not answered because they are too busy and of telemarketers who have honed in on them with harassing calls for the past two years.

        There is no doubt this young cohort is oversampled, combined with them hardly voting and you have a massive skew. They they aren’t modelled out (but instead counted merely because they are “registered voters”) will leave many scratching their heads Monday.

        My estimate: CPC get 37.5, sweep most of the 905 and hold onto at least a strong minority if not majority.
        Also watch for the belated polling swinging back to CPC from today to Saturday, out of too-little-too-late self preservation, as they are well aware of this.

      • Vancouverois says:

        My guess is that it’s going to make Liberal supporters less likely to bother voting, and motivate Conservative supporters.

        • The Observer says:

          And not to pile on, have a look at the last drastic sudden drop for the CPC in the polls (which was soon erased):

          The last long weekend (Sept). Like clockwork. Today both Ekos and Nanos have the Lib spread plateauing. Watch it narrows toward the weekend. Of course that will not cover the lack of a likely voter model which is skewing at very high levels. I maintain my above prediction.

  5. My prediction: Libs 38%, Cons 30%, NDP 18%. Harper resigns before Christmas. Baird is new CPC Leader. Another fed election by February. Trudeau wins a majority then. Mulcair resigns by spring.

    • Matt says:

      Don’t think there’s a snowballs chance in hell Baird comes back to politics.

      MacKay could come back. Kenney, Raitt, Rempel would probably run, but Kenney’s “social Conservative” views could be a problem.

      I’d hope Brad Wall could be convinced to run.

      • Reality.Bites says:

        It’s one thing to have a foreign minister living in a “glass closet” or “saving himself for marriage” but a PM has to be married or in a serious relationship or openly playing the field. Bachelors in their 40s may have worked in Mackenzie King’s era, but neither John Baird nor Jason Kenney are going to be Conservative leader.

        If the ballot question is Stephen Harper, then Harper loses. Even his fans don’t like him. And on a personal level, I am incensed that he’s insinuating the Liberals – the party that gave us the Chrétien/Martin years – is less able to manage the economy than Harper, who has shown – to be kind – no particular talent in that whatsoever.

        • Matt says:

          Nothing to do with those Baird rumours. Different one which I won’t go into here. But he was called into Harpers office. Harper asked him if it was true. Baird said yes. Harper said resign or I’ll kick you out of the caucus. Baird resigned.

      • Jon Adams says:

        Keep dreaming. Wall has a provincial election to win in the spring and he’s not leaving his party without its greatest asset.

    • !o! says:

      You’re missing 3% somewhere.. I don’t think it’s absolutely impossible that GPC + BQ get 14% of the vote, but I don’t think it’s at all likely…

    • Jack D says:

      I agree with Matt here, no chance Baird is coming back to *federal* politics.

      I think your poll predictions are bang-on though.

      But heres how I think things might play out:

      -Mulcair resigns election night; he can’t live down such a humiliating loss or suffer under a Trudeau PM or Trudeau Opposition Leader

      -Nathan Cullen as interim leader

      -NDP leadership convention results in electing former Manitoba cabinet minister Theresa Oswald as leader

      -Stephen Harper resigns (when will depend on exactly how precise the election results are)

      -CPC leadership candidates: Kenney, Charest and Brad Wall

      -Kenney wins in the aftermath of the Harper years and drives support away from CPC by going too right politically and too similar to Harper.

      -Raitt and McKay won’t run for leadership until at least one election cycle and will come back to try and bring the party back to its more progressive roots.

      This is pure conjecture, but I’d be more inclined to believe things will unfold very similarly to this.

      • Vancouverois says:

        Mulcair resigns? Maybe. Maybe even likely. Certainly not unlikely. Nathan Cullen would be a strong leadership contender, so I don’t know that he could be Interim Leader (I forget, are you allowed to do that if you intend to run in the leadership campaign proper?).

        Theresa who?

        If he can stay on, Harper resigns some time after July 1st 2017, the nation’s 150th birthday.

        I don’t see McKay coming back. Not Charest, either. And I don’t believe Kenney could (or should) win the leadership next. Brad Wall seems like a strong candidate, and there are others that might throw their hats in the ring.

        • Jack D says:

          If the loss is as big as we are predicting for the NDP, Mulcair would be well advised to walk away from politics for good. I think you are allowed to run for leadership despite being interim leader, but these temporary leaders are usually picked on the expectation that they will not seek leadership. But I think you’re right, Nathan Cullen is a strong candidate and probably won’t stand in as temporary. I just thought it would sort of an emotional reaction by the membership of the NDP to pick someone a lot less polarizing than Mulcair. Probably not Cullen though.

          Theresa Oswald is a very well known NDP former cabinet minister here in Manitoba who tried to over throw the Premier; it didn’t exactly pan out the way she planned but she’s a very well spoken female politician with a ton of grass roots support and more in-line with a Brian Topp kind of NDP. There’s a sense that she won’t run as MLA again next year and could end up being a strong contender for the leadership in the federal NDP.

          I definitely see McKay coming back in the future. He’s the PM the Conservatives never got, and will likely need in the future. Being a Progressive Conservative will help mend a lot of the relationships broken by Harper. He’s intelligent, articulate and not to mention a younger man with looks. Plus, it’ll be very palatable to the base if McKay were to come back to save the party.

          As for Charest, Brad Wall and Kenney:

          We already know Charest is circling around like a vulture. In fact, he’s been eyeing leadership since the Duffy Scandal broke and hasn’t been subtle about it since. I think he’s likely to throw his hat into the ring (provided Quebec supporters are warm to the idea, of course).

          Jason Kenney is where my mind goes to first because of all the potential candidates, he’s the closest ideologically to Harper. It might be seen that post-Harper, Kenney might be able to take control like Harper did. I think he’ll win more on an emotional reflex than anything. It’ll likely be a disaster because I don’t think Kenney has the leadership qualities it would take to build a consensus within the CPC caucus that has already been pretty repressed for the past decade.

          Brad Wall would probably be the best candidate next to McKay to take over the party. He’s a populist with an aptitude for speaking diplomatically and at the same time, personably. He’s got a relative strong support base in the Sask and would probably have no trouble garnering that kind of support throughout Western Canada. I just don’t know if he’d be ready to take the reigns of the party so quickly. I think the best candidates will try and wait it out until the party has enough time to flush itself of the sort of excessively partisan politicking that has become toxic and common under the current PM.

  6. Matt says:

    It’s all going to come down to who gets their vote to the polls and the efficiency of that vote.

    Looking at the Ipsos poll Libs up 37 to 31. That should be pretty close to a Lib majority, but Ipsos’ seat prediction has the Libs at 128 (42 from Majority) and the CPC at 122 (48 from majority)

    Mulcair gave his strongest indication he’ll support a Liberal minority last night “I will do WHATEVER IT TAKES to ensure Stephen Harper doesn’t serve one more day as Prime Minister after October 19th.”

    But , he said make sure Stephen Harper is no longer PM, not make sure the CPC don’t form government. So does that mean he’ll support a Liberal minority just log enough for Harper to resign and the CPC pick a new leader? Or if the CPC win a minority but Harper still resigns will he support a CPC government with someone else in charge?

    Either way, if there’s no majority for the Libs or CPC, we’re probably back to the polls in 12 to 18 months.

    • zing says:

      I don’t think we can interpret Mulcair’s comments to mean that he will be fine supporting Jason Kenney or Pierre Polivere or any other Conservative as PM…

  7. DougM says:

    Your tweet is bang on. The goal for JT was to regain the official opposition. 1st place, if achieved, is just icing on the cake. After all, it was likely a two election strategy for the LPC to come back from third party status.

  8. Matt says:

    #NDP lose next week, no matter what.

    Do they though?

    If it’s a Liberal or CPC minority, they hold the hammer.

    As for Quinto Maggi’s bold prediction last night, three words:

    “Dewey Defeats Truman”

    Ain’t over until the last vote is counted.

    • Matt says:

      And didn’t Maggi come on here and vouche for the NDP bought CROP poll that showed Trudeau well behind in Papineau?

      Said he’d seen the raw data and called the methodology solid as I recall despite pretty much every other pollster calling bullshit on the poll.

    • Reality.Bites says:

      And as the Liberal-Democrats just proved in the UK, as the New Democrats proved in Ontario during the Peterson-Rae accord and in Ottawa from 72-74 under the Trudeau minority, the hammer usually turns into a double-edged sword.

    • Vancouverois says:

      Yes, but could they really support the Conservatives? No.

      If it is a minority, the NDP’s choices are basically:

      1) Support a Liberal minority.
      2) Vote down a Liberal minority, plunging the country into yet another election almost immediately after this one.

      Neither of these is particularly great for the NDP.

      • Vancouverois says:

        Sorry, Matt! This was intended as a response to your other comment, about how the polls may influence voting patterns.

    • Jack D says:

      Holding the hammer is one thing, but holding government is unlike anything else.

      They can only bang for so long until they either tire themselves out through the repetitive nature of hammer wielding –or worse, voters tire of them.

      Its a lose-lose situation for the NDP. They finally broke out of third-party status only to let their only opportunity in decades to prove themselves slip through their fingers. They have become typecast by the electorate and it doesn’t bode well for their credibility.

  9. Cath says:

    Harper Minority. The pundits and MSM have written him off too soon. CTV’s Bob Fife was almost gleeful in fact. I don’t think Harper’s done yet.

    We’re back at the polls sooner than we want to be, but after a Harper leadership review.

    • Jon Adams says:

      I feel sorry for whoever has to lead the CPC in the election of 2017 after the massive dumpster fire that this one turned into.

  10. MississaugaPeter says:

    I, for one, could not be happier to think that Harper is kaput, but surely we are not all making decisions based on polls.

    Let’s see, in 2013, polls the last couple of days before the B.C. Election had the feel good, change needed, NDP ahead by 6%-9%. Real result, the incumbent Liberals were re-elected with 5% more votes.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_2013

    Let see, in 2015, polls the last couple of days before the Alberta Election had the feel good, change needed, NDP ahead by 20%-23% (23% Main Street). Real result, the incumbent PC were only 12.8% behind the NDP.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2015

    Let’s see, in 2011, polls the last couple of days before the Canada Election had the feel good, change needed, NDP behind just 2%-6%. Real result, the incumbent CONS beat the NDP by 9%.

    The polls for the 2014 Ontario and Quebec Elections were closer to the mark.

    MY POINT: careful with predictions based on polling, and the last few days of the election matter, as well as obviously, the GOTV efforts.

  11. Rene G. says:

    For the conservatives it’s majority or bust.

    If they don’t get a majority, they are done.

    • Matt says:

      Harper will be done, not necessarily the Conservatives.

      Mulcair has been very careful to say his focus is to get rid of Harper.

      If Harper leaves in a CPC minority, does Mulcair become more willing to prop up the Conservatives?

      And who would be PM in that situation? There is no Deputy leader of the Conservatives or Deputy PM. Does Harper appoint a deputy PM before stepping down then that person slides into th big chair while a CPC leadership race takes place?

  12. A. Voter says:

    How would the NDP fund raise and have a leadership convention if they’re propping up a Liberal minority? Who do they campaign against?

  13. zing says:

    What happened at Thanksgiving? The same thing that happened over Christmas 2005, except in reverse. Then, we got together and expressed disgust at Liberal corruption, and convinced some family and friends it was time for the Conservatives to have a chance at government. The infamous RCMP announcement of an investigation of Liberals was part of this discussion. This Thanksgiving, we got together and expressed calm confidence in Trudeau, and noted that the Conservatives’ time was up and that they really hadn’t done anything to deserve another term. I can’t wait to see the numbers…they won’t be dramatic, but enough of a change from pre-Thanksgiving that we will all know the Libs are on the cusp of a majority… – See more at: http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/10/im-making-a-big-big-careerlife-change/#comments

  14. Cath says:

    Trudeau just got arrogant and a bit too cocky and asked for a Majority. When Mulcair was measuring for curtains at 24 Sussex…..the critics came out in droves.

    This is interesting: Elections Canada Confirms Kathleen Wynne’s Expenses Must Be Paid by Trudeau Liberals.

    http://paulsrants-paulsstuff.blogspot.ca/

    • Matt says:

      Harper was asking for a majority in 2011. Not surprising or particularly arrogant really.

      Mulcair wasn’t ASKING voters for a majority. The NDP were publicly boasting about getting a transition team together.

      As fo Wynne’s expenses, what if she doesn’t claim any?

      • reader says:

        What is the relevance of Wynne’s campaign expenses? Don’t see how it can cost much to spend part of a day in Toronto, no travel, her salary is an annual salary, not paid by the hour whether she works all weekend or takes a day off occasionally.

        Notley will be campaigning with Mulcair in Edmonton, so her situation should be the same as to campaign expenses.

        And Harper of course has both Ford brothers doing even more, throwing some rally or something. Guess CPC has to cover their costs too as a campaign expense, right?

      • Vancouverois says:

        Harper also mused about getting a majority in 2008 (or was it 2006?), and that time it worked against him. The difference with Harper in 2011 is, of course, that he’d already won two minorities as an intermediate step. He’d already proven that he could handle the job to the electors’ satisfaction.

        Obviously, Trudeau hasn’t proven himself in the same way. He’s run a good campaign, but is it really enough to vault him into a majority government when he’s basically unproven — when, if anything, he keeps saying ill-advised things that put his judgement into question? I certainly hope not.

        PM Trudeau with a Liberal minority I can live with. PM Trudeau with a Liberal majority… would be a risky gamble for the nation.

        • Ronald O'Dowd says:

          Vancouverois,

          That’s the great thing about our democracy. I can live with Harper winning again but it would be difficult to swallow and I would most definitely not like it. They say the voters are always right…

    • Bluegreenblogger says:

      You don’t understand. A plurality of the electorate has been on the fence waiting on the fence until a clear leader emerges, for whom they will vote. The anti-harper vote is that large. Most pollsters at least allude to this with respect to undecided voters. 70% want change, and 57% say their vote will go to the clear leader. That doesn’t leave very much for the NDP I am afraid. Except where they are clearly leading. Capable NDP Incumbents should be able to lock in their seats with those same ‘change voters’ though, so don’t expect too great a crushing of the NDP on eday.

  15. Matt says:

    Prediction if it’s a CPC minority:

    Harper doesn’t bring parliament in session until late February to mid March 2016. Throne speech, Libs and NDP vote against it. Five months have passed, GG sends them back out on the campaign trail.

    • Vancouverois says:

      Well, Joe Clark didn’t convene Parliament for five months either, so it’s certainly possible.

      And the new election results in a Liberal majority, headed by a Trudeau? Oh, the irony…

  16. Dork in East York says:

    I think the biggest winner will be Conservative fundraisers

    A small conservative minority in 6 days.

  17. Eric Weiss says:

    I’m done with this election. I was leaning towards the CPC until they started up with the Niqab garbage. And these new ads saying the LPC want kids to smoke dope and are in favour of brothels sealed it against them for me. I don’t trust the beard or Zoolander. I’m spoiling my ballot and writing in Batman. He’s the only one who can save us now.

  18. Jack D says:

    I concur with that tweet 100%.

    This is go big or go home for the CPC next week. They have to win a strong minority because a majority is out of the question for Harper now. Things are not looking good for the CPC going into this last week and their message doesn’t seem to be taking all that much anymore. If its a weak minority, the CPC is done. It’ll be easier for the opposition to make a case for toppling a weak government.

    The Liberals win either way. They are headed towards majority territory, or at the very least a solid minority. If, in the case the CPC pulls a win, then the Liberals will be in a strong opposition position and will likely topple the Conservatives at the earliest opportunity. Whatever the scenario, election 42 will be a huge win-win situation. They will have earned legitimacy as the alternative party to CPC and their leader will have gained huge credibility on the “he’s ready” front.

    The NDP lose no matter what; they’re playing for a distant third and will lose official opposition status in the House. Their leader will have been a failure, or as he likes to call it, “roadkill”. The party will be broke, bereft of the “change” support and void of a amiable leader. Despite the absurd posturing by Mulcair, it doesn’t much matter what he says the NDP will do after the election seeing as how he will likely lose his own job as leader.

  19. Harvey Bushell says:

    So it appears the Fords are having one of their Ford Nation rallies on behalf of the Cons on Saturday.

    Now there’s a game changer (said no one).

    Seriously, Harper has to be unbelievably desperate to be seen colluding with a former(?) drug addict mayor and his extremely unlikeable bully boy brother (who the Cons have pointedly rejected as a nominee in the recent past).

    They may garner a few votes from Ford’s riding but anyone else in the GTA and probably the entire country will see this for what it is.. a complete abandonment of moral standards by the PMO. It can’t help but backfire especially if guys like old “Lying piece of Shit” Harper supporter is there to give a few quotes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qv6Pq5nNjN4

    Classic!

    • Vancouverois says:

      …and this is happening at the very same time that the Conservatives are launching attacks that tell the Chinese and Punjabi communities that Trudeau will make drugs more accessible to children!

      You have to admire the Conservative chutzpah. Or, you know, not. >_<

  20. lou says:

    It is starting to look like an American idol Finish. The ignorance of the progressive voter is laughable to say the least. The Dauphin has modeled his policy after the same policy that drove Ontario into the “largest debt of any sub-sovereign state in THE WORLD” . Mister Butts may yet get his dream. Drive jobs away, increase poverty, and fatten the purses of Unions. Warren, this is not your Liberal Party. This is Bob Rae’s Ontario NDP.

  21. ottlib says:

    While the top line estimates on the polls have been all over the place during this election the one constant has been the desire for change being very high, having gone above the 70% mark around Labour Day and staying there.

    It is very difficult for an incumbent government to overcome that without something to galvanize the electorate in their favour. Either both Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Mulcair had to have pulled a Hudak or something really dramatic outside of Canada had to happen that was in the Conservative wheelhouse. Although there is still time neither has happened.

    All of the polls now indicate that the Liberals are breaking away and opening a lead up on the Conservatives. As it stands now it is looking more like a Liberal victory on Monday.

    Some on this website have been floating the idea that the Conservatives will still win because their supporters will vote while the supporters of the Liberals will not. That sounds to me like the same arguments many used during the last Ontario election where commentators downplayed the top line estimates and focused on the estimates for “Likely voters”. After all of the votes were counted it was revealed that the “Likely voters” estimates were hogwash, which is probably why we have not seen any of that silliness this time around.

    If the final polls, which will be published on Saturday, point to a substantial Liberal lead over the Conservatives the most likely outcome of Monday’s vote will be a Liberal victory. If the estimates tighten up over the next three days the outcome will be more uncertain.

    If the Liberals are revealed to have a substantial lead by the weekend it will discourage some Liberal supporters from voting but it will also discourage some Conservative voters from voting as well. Both for the same reason, namely, my vote will not effect the outcome so why bother. In the end it will probably be a wash.

  22. Matt says:

    EKOS Wednesday October 14th – NDP rebound???

    Libs 34.1 (down 1.5)

    CPC 29.9 (down 1.2)

    NDP 24.1 (UP 3.5)

    http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/liberals-maintain-lead-over-conservatives/

  23. Matt says:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberal-campaign-co-chair-advised-transcanada-on-lobbying-next-government/article26803117/

    The Liberals say Justin Trudeau’s national campaign co-chair did not break any ethical standards when he sent a detailed email Monday to people behind the Energy East pipeline with advice on how and when to lobby a new government — including if it happened to be a Liberal minority.

    In the email, Dan Gagnier tells five people at TransCanada Corp. to target the right people in a new government as quickly as possible so they can help shape either Liberal or NDP decisions on a national energy strategy.

    Such a lobbying effort would be needed to ensure the planned “in-service” dates of projects like Energy East aren’t put at risk, the email says.

    Gagnier writes that getting this “early entry point” in any revisions to the rules governing the National Energy Board “is sensitive,” but also an opportunity.

    • Matt says:

      Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnd……….. he’s gone.

      CBC reporting he resigned. Trudeau should have fired him. Better optics.

      I can see the new CPC ad now:

      “Same old arrogant Liberals – Trying to peddle influence before they’ve even won the election.”

      • MississaugaPeter says:

        In the last 5 days, reciting what you said even though he has resigned is one of the many half-truths at Harper’s disposal.

        Trudeau promised everyone a goodie during this campaign, buying our votes with our and our children’s money. Harper in contrast, will do and say whatever it takes these last 5 days to stay in power. Today was really the first of 5 crazy days! Fasten your seatbelts hacks. It’s gonna be a wild ride.

      • Jack D says:

        Yes, but for what gains?

        The CPC isn’t exactly blemish free on the ethics file themselves as of late. While I fully expect them to squeeze everything they possibly can from this non-issue, it’s likely to draw some unwanted media attention to their own troubles (i.e. as recent as former Chief of Staff, Jason MacDonald violating Accountably Act).

        I’m just saying, it’s obviously not the greatest thing for the Liberals to be defending themselves on this late into the campaign, but I don’t know if Canadians will even care to make the connection between the pre-2005 Liberals to the 2015 Liberals. I might be wrong, but it seems like a stretch to me given the decade that’s passed between.

        The only people who can, and likely will, make hay out of this are the Dippers. I fully expect them to lose their GD minds over this and drop the TPP issue to try and make this their war-cry for the next few days. Again, how effective it will be is questionable. The man was resigned on the very same day and if the NDP wants to go full out attack on Trudeau, they will most likely come off even more desperate to peel voters away from the Liberals. Remember, Mulcair needs to try an make it seem like he’s fighting Harper, not Trudeau. Too much negative on Liberals isn’t helping Mulcair and team orange.

        • Vancouverois says:

          I don’t know… with Trudeau’s call for a majority today and promise to dress down Putin, this new story feeds into a growing narrative that the Liberals are getting arrogant (again). And there’s still the weekend to go before the final vote.

          I suppose it may not hurt Trudeau, coming as late in the campaign as it does. But I certainly don’t see how it helps him.

          • Jack D says:

            It doesn’t help, it knocks the off message and thats something all parties hate.

            That said, I look at it this way: How long could this controversy possibly sustain itself enough to have visible damage? Take a look at Stephen Harper; he was absolutely hammered during the summer on the Mike Duffy trial by the media and his opponents yet was still able to maintain a steady base of support. Much to the surprise of many, it displayed a lot of resilience. In this situation we have the Liberals and guy nobody really knows. Dan Gagnier is not a household name like Duffy.

            The other thing is that this story was obviously leaked from somewhere and it would be naive to think that the Liberals don’t have grenades of their own to throw. Its possible that this story will eat up media coverage for the day. But if the Liberals find that this story is gaining too much traction, I’m sure they have something juicy of their own to throw into the story-hungry media.

        • Matt says:

          Trudeau’s whole campaign has ben about “change”

          This story shows more of the same.

          Kady O’Malley who is no CPC schill:

          Campaign co-chair lobbying email a throwback to the dark days of Liberal scandals past

          http://ottawacitizen.com/storyline/kady-campaign-co-chair-lobbying-email-a-throwback-to-the-dark-days-of-liberal-scandals-past

          • Jack D says:

            Nor did I suggest she was. In fact, I’m a fan of Kady O’Malley.

            She noted on Twitter today that (I’m paraphrasing) it wasn’t the content of the email thats an issue, its just that it was an extremely dumb decision for Dan Gangier to communicate with the company given his role with the campaign.

            And I agree.

            But to say this is “more of the same” is utterly grasping at straws. Which is why you’re seeing Mulcair having convulsions over this matter today. Which O’Malley also believes is overly optimistic; code for desperate. Its hardly a throwback to the days of yore and the NDP can scream all they want, its not going to move any meaningful votes for them.

    • Vancouverois says:

      “The Liberal Party blamed the Conservatives for leaking the email.” What?

  24. Matt says:

    OK. This election has officially hit rock bottom

    NDP accuses Liberals of spreading rumour a candidate is dying

    Liberals deny accusation while NDP complains to Elections Canada

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-turmel-rumour-1.3269966

  25. Bluegreenblogger says:

    Lots of people here talking about the horserace numbers, but Abacus has been publishing a great series of polls that examined the ‘change vote,’ which is to say all of the undecided voters wanting change. Horserace numbers report decided voters. Different pollsters distribute the undecideds, or not as they see fit. In THIS campaign, as Abacus have been showing (with quite large sample sizes I might add), there have been a very large number of people undecided between the Liberals and NDP. The Conservatives barely register in the game of converting possible voters, although niqabs gobbled up a few for them. What a majority of the undecided people have been saying is that they will vote for the candidate more certain to beat Harper. Period. And THAT is a plurality of the electorate moving between the two parties. So now those folks puzzled by Trudeau’s chutzpah know why he is assuming the mantle prematurely. Because a whole lot of people have been waiting for that to be believable. So if Abacus is correct, once the balance was tipped, it became a self fulfilling prophesy. Trudeau is now in the process of mopping up supporters who haven’t yet clued in that he is what they have been waiting for… Go check out any polls with ‘change vote’ at Abacus. They are quite enlightening.

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