10.20.2015 01:41 PM

Why last night happened, in 140 characters or less

You’re welcome.

44 Comments

  1. Alex says:

    Agree with all of your points. However, I would add one more reason, i.e. Ontario. If you look at Nanos’ tracking poll throughout the election, the NDP was never in first place in Ontario.

    Bob Rae effectively killed the NDP brand in Canada’s largest province. More than two decades later, people still say they won’t vote for Team Orange because of the Rae government. Which raises the question: How did the NDP ever think the could win this election if they cannot win Ontario? As someone who previously worked for Dalton McGuinty, Gerald Butts was keenly aware of how weak the Dipper vote was here.

    Looking back, the early NDP numbers in August and early-September were being maintained by unreasonably high support in Quebec, along with traditional support in British Columbia and pockets in the Prairies. But Ontario never got on the Orange bandwagon, notwithstanding downtown Toronto in the early days of the campaign.

  2. Mervyn Norton says:

    The underlying narrative of this election was always “Who can best replace Harper?” Liberals did better marketing than the NDP, partly because Trudeau had time to exceed low expectations during a long campaign. The Liberals, in doubling their percentage, pulled half of their new votes from each of the Cons and NDP (from 2011). In contrast, because the NDP couldn’t pull (or sustain) enough votes from disaffected Cons, they seemed less likely to be able to beat Harper and thus lost a third of their supporters to Libs.

  3. Dork in East York says:

    Team Orange got crushed.

    Yet I still think they’d be stupid to ditch Mulcair. Lavigne, McGrath and Belanger, on the other hand.

  4. Matt says:

    #lpc vote that’d stayed away ’06-’11 came home

    Well, for one night anyway.

    We’ll see if it was just a stop over 4 years from now.

  5. MK says:

    Looks like net numbers were, compared to 2011:

    NDP -1000000 votes
    CPC -200000 votes
    LPC +4200000 votes

    Trudeau won because he convinced ~3000000 people who didn’t vote last time to come out and vote.

  6. cassandra says:

    3million new voters helped out with change too, and so almost 70% turn out, excellent work Canada!

    • Mark says:

      In my riding (Etobicoke-Lakeshore), the Conservatives got almost the same number of votes as in the last election. The Liberals won solely because they got new voters out to the polls. Even the number of NDP voters that switched to Liberal ended up being inconsequential compared to the increased turnout of Liberal voters.

  7. Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    Too bad Stockwell doesn’t read your website. He just said no one predicted a Liberal majority. LOL.

  8. Peter says:

    Add to all that two cases of the CPC shedding blood in its own water: First, the Stasi-esque “barbaric cultural practices” snitch line; second the Ford rally. The former demonstrated the Harper campaign had simply lost its shit. The latter signalled to the whole scene that they were retreating to the ramparts and barricading the drawbridge. Both caused this conservative to take his vote elsewhere for the first time since 1984.

  9. Kaiser Helmets & Motorcycles says:

    This is great, great news for us progressive conservatives. Harper’s team will not continue to dominate the party, they lack Harper. This time next year Pete McKay, Eaton House’s favorite son, will be leader of the party.

    Loss is never easy, but like revolutions and wars, it is the price of renewal. Maybe we can even convince old farts like Kinsella Warren to join the revolution!

    • Mike says:

      OMG are you so wrong.

      This is going to result in the Reformers thinking you lost because you weren’t conservative enough. Watch for the CPC to get more right wing, not less.

      • Ronald O'Dowd says:

        Mike,

        Agree totally. The membership majority comes from the Alliance. They will annoint their next conservative saviour –and no big news here, it sure as hell won’t be Jason Kenney.

      • Jon Adams says:

        Yeah the Tory Tea Party is going to be something to behold.

      • Maps Onburt says:

        You’re lighting up before the pot laws come into effect there Mike. While there is a loud vocal minority in the CPC who advocate for things like abortion, against same second marriage and for the return of the death penalty (just like in the Liberal Party BTW) one of Harper’s big successes within the party ranks is how he convinced the rank and file that these aren’t battles worth fighting. You will never see a Conservative government write laws to enshrine the right to terminate a life (whether it is for the unborn or capital punishment). The largest majority in the party by far prefer Harper’s strategy of letting the status quo stand. Yes, I am absolutely sure that someone from that side of the party will run but it won’t get them anywhere as the majority of us want nothing to do with it and would shut it down.

        That said, we won’t be electing a red liberal either. We typically punish leaders who “pander” or follow the polls. We prefer a strong principled stand on issues. My vote would be for Laureen. Hell if Hillary can do it, Justin can do it, why not her? The kids are grown now and from interviews I’ve seen she’s every bit as thoughtful (and much more telegenic) than her husband. Another good candidate (and one that scares our gracious host) is Michelle Rempel. Neither of these two would be focused on hard core social conservative ideas. When conservatives are successful, they move the needle back from full on progressive anything goes social issues (e.g. Against forcing priests to marry gay people but not against gay people getting married) but are fiscally responsible and for reduced interference by government. We respect federal / provincial boundaries and believe that the government should stick to things in its jurisdiction (like federal laws, defence, foreign policies, and Indian affairs). That’s why we are a big (but not huge) tent party with people as diverse as Peter McKay on the red side to Mad Max Bernier on the Libertarian side feel right at home in our party. Yes, a few members left because of PM Harper’s tight message control and yes some of us want to see more openness and diversity of opinion but Too much of that and you end up with anarchy.

    • SG says:

      Question for the “progressive” conservative. If you want the CPC to be just like the Liberals, then why not just keep voting Liberal? Now I realize that plays into the whole Liberal strategy of picking off “disaffected” Red Tories. Harper, however, proved that it’s possible to win on a genuinely centre-right platform as opposed to mushy centre-leftism. Seriously, what would be the difference, in your opinion, between your imagined Progressive Conservative party and the Liberal Party?

  10. W the K - No, not Warren says:

    It’s been, what, almost 48 hours and I sure miss those Conservative attack ads!

  11. Peter says:

    Neglected to add two additional words: “Kory” and “Tenneyke” for a spin for the ages re Trudeau exceeding expectations for the first (Maclean’s) debate. How ’bout, “Geez, we’re taking nothing for granted with this guy. Born at 24 Sussex, met heads of state as a kid, and look at his father, who raised him to appreciate the importance of debate and intellectual rigour.” ?

    Instead the guys shows up with more than his pants on and look what happened. Nice one, Kory.

    • Scotian says:

      Yep.

      For all those claiming Trudeau was aided by low expectations, which is a truth, it is a truth not so much spoken of that both Harper and Mulcair created those low expectations for Trudeau despite the evidence out there which should have showed them they were mistaken. I’ve noted at this site and other places in my usual long winded way the evidence that Trudeau was a far more serious and capable leader than was being credited by his opponents, both those in the HoC and those here and elsewhere online. I warned some time back that by creating these low expectations they were helping Trudeau in the long run, and that this was obvious to any serious political thinker not being blinded by their contempt about Trudeau. Trudeau did to Harper and Mulcair what he did to Brazeau in the boxing ring, and they had far less excuse for falling for it than Brazeau did.

      Just as I always took Harper seriously as a real political force and threat before he ever became leader of the CA let along CPC and then PM I equally read Trudeau accurately in this regard too. I looked at the objective evidence and markers for leadership, especially in the less sexy stuff in the back-office side as opposed to simply how he came off in the media. There was no good reason for Trudeau to have been given the priceless gift of such arrogant contemptuous dismissal which created such low expectation which allowed his genuine abilities to shine so much more brightly than they already would in a more respectful environment, and did so much to create the halo effect around him as this campaign went on to its conclusion.

      Even now many seem to be having a hard time with the idea that Trudeau was actually the one in charge of his campaign all along, that Trudeau was the one making the decisions and setting the terms. Back when he was in third and looking to many like a spent force there were many voices within and without the Liberal party telling Trudeau he needed to go hard negative to come back. That he had surrendered the campaign by promising to run a positive vision campaign instead of a brutal attack campaign. Yet Trudeau stuck to his principles/guns on this one, and in the end he proved that he was right and all those saying otherwise were wrong. In other words he led even when all about him were losing their heads he kept his, and found the correct path not only to victory, but majority victory at that.

      It will be interesting to watch to see how he translate that into being a Prime Minister, and while I am sure it will be challenging, as it should be, I suspect even now many are underestimating just how capable a PM he will prove out to be. He has a deep strong bench of capable people as his MPs to build a really capable cabinet with and to rebuild the committees with, he clearly knows how to do the hard work of organizational repair from the ground up as he proved with the Liberal party itself in the wake of the Ignatief fiasco and the shattered wreck it left for him, and he clearly cares about this country and the job he has fought for.

      All in all, I think this could be one of the most significant election results of my life for this nation, and I will be paying attention to see how well he does to yet again defy the low expectations so many of his critics still have of him, even after this election showed why that is such a mistake and misread. I said may times that his proven abilities in rebuilding the Liberal party from the ground up would be invaluable to rebuilding our system of government from the decade of destruction Harper the Destroyer and Salter of the Scorched Earth would leave in his wake. We will now see whether I was as correct in this as I was in everything else I had to say regarding Trudeau and the Liberals this year.

  12. smelter rat says:

    Poor Jenni Byrne. Not.

  13. Dave Kurgan says:

    Also another item I would add is this, Ezra Levant’s Rebel Media is going to take off media wise and make mega bank. Why do I say this, because the Liberal majority is just what the right wing outrage machine is going to need to revive themselves again.

  14. Dr Noseworthy says:

    Charisma, yes it does seem the new young voters like that. Now real decisions happen. One of the first decisions – leaving ISIS be – is hugely unpopular, so said the polls. There is much consternation about TSFA being eliminated as well. In fact Harper being “mean” aside, many of his policies were popular.

    A largely fawning media allowed Trudeau to simply ignore the substantive attacks against him. But the fact that the media covered for their chosen one doesn’t make the problems disappear, only kept below the surface.

    Today Canadians are waking up to the realization that while our partners risk life and limb to eliminate the ISIS scourge, we will be packing up and going home. The first of many embarrassments to come. Trudeau’s first great act was one of great duplicity. Telling our allies how much they are valued and the backing up those words by abandoning them on the battlefield.

    This PM will be a disaster and you can thank the media for absolutely failing to vet one who’s track record consisted of being a part time drama teacher and then dropping in and out of university courses.

    • Cory says:

      I feel the same.

      Notice how Trudeau said that he told Obama he’d withdraw the troops but the didn’t mention cancelling the fighter jets?

      • Derek Pearce says:

        Am I not getting sarcasm here? I bet I’m not getting the sarcasm. But in case Cory is also not getting the sarcasm or others didn’t see the press conference, it must be pointed out (ok sigh, I’m wrecking your joke, sorry) that Trudeau said the exact opposite– that while the jets will be pulled, our JTF2 guy will still remain on the ground training anti-ISIS forces. Which is a far more cost-effective *and useful in a practical way overall* of our resources there.

    • Eeeeetienne says:

      You’re right that some of Harper’s policies are popular. Everybody likes boutique tax credits when it’s their boutique. There’s a $50 tax break or two for just about anyone, right now, in our overly complicated and distorted tax code.

      But you’re overstating it by saying our allies are risking life and limb fighting ISIS. Nobody’s got troops on the ground. It wont be hard to send a few extra US jets on bombing runs when the CF18s aren’t there. And the whole bombing campaign has been largely ineffectual. ISIS is not retreating. That said, I do agree they should not be left to do as they please. But no one seems to have the solution, or the gusto, at this point.

  15. Dr Noseworthy says:

    Just look at the Niqab issue. All agreed that it sunk the NDP in Quebec. Canadians overwhelmingly opposed the Niqab in poll after poll, particularly in Que. In perhaps one of the purest examples of overwhelming media bias (complete with a control group for the variable) the media foisted responsibility onto Mulcair for his pro Niqab stance, and completely left alone Trudeau – who had the same position. Like a referee in a hockey game seeing two teams tripping, but only calling it against one. Remarkable.

    The reality is, of Trudeau’s 40% vote share, only a portion of those actually support his positions, with a healthy percentage who merely wanted a nebulous “change”. Now that concrete decisions are being made, short of total media blackout (which they may try in vain) horrible policies like tacitly helping ISIS by abandoning our allies, will be hitting Canadians like a ton to bricks.

    • Cory says:

      The “highlight” for me was when Harper said “old-stock” we got a week of coverage on how racists Harper is.

      JT said “rap music causes rape”….we get a week of articles about how racist Harper is.

    • Eeeeetienne says:

      Oh how quickly we forget… Before you start fueling the “media is liberal” hypemobile, think back to last week and which party the largest media outlets almost uniformly endorsed? It wasn’t the Liberals. And then google back to the 2011 election. It wasn’t the Liberals. And in 2006… Your Liberal media sure likes to endorse the Conservatives.

      • Cory says:

        The owners of the newspapers are not the journalists themselves.

        You have to admit that JT got let off the hook on that one.

      • SG says:

        I don’t think editorial boards drive public opinion much. It’s the staff reporters who who can slant a story one way or another. Christie Blatchford recounted the media uproar from 2006 when PM Harper awkwardly shook his son’s hand after walking him to school. The skewing he took from that, the media practically portrayed it as if he doesn’t love his own child! It was revolting, and don’t tell me that were Justin to have a similarly awkward moment with one of his children that he would be subjected to the same vilification. You know very well that he would not.

  16. Dr Noseworthy says:

    The country that bravely stormed the beaches of Normandy hand in hand with our allies (my wife’s grandfather being one of those brave souls) is walking away from our allies in a battle against the most despicable and melevolent force seen in our lifetimes. I guess we can feel good that we will be sending warm coats to the 14 yr old sex slaves held by ISIS.

    I have never been truly embarrassed to be a Canadian. Until today.

    • littlemissbliss says:

      i said it here before. the further from the front the braver is the warmonger.

    • Derek Pearce says:

      Bombing is only ever marginally effective against an enemy; it was ever thus. You want to make a difference, you send in ground forces, which no one in this coalition is willing to do other than a training role (and which we will remain doing even as the jets are sent home). This is not Normandy, this is trying to fight a guerilla war from 30000 ft. It *feels* good to bomb, but it’s an expensive way to make a symbolic point.

      Also to your other point above– and of course anecdote is not data– but Chantal Hebert was saying in an interview I heard that she’s talked to people making $100K a year and they’ve said reducing the TFSA makes very very little difference to them after paying for their kids’ tuition and putting savings in their RRSPs first.

  17. Maps Onburt says:

    Trudeau will continue to have a honeymoon with the fawning media until the impact of some of his promises start to sink in. A lot of Canadians voted to get Harper out and not for anything Trudeau promised. Trudeau will learn that soon enough. If he can pivot with the the mood of the electorate he’ll do OK. If he sticks with everything he’s promised, he’ll be toast.

    • Cory says:

      A friend of mine posted a meme showing an immediate “to do” list for JT:

      – end all pipelines and oil exports
      – pull out of TPP
      – get out of Five Eyes
      – repeal C-51
      – slash CSEC and CSIS budget, sell the new CSEC building
      – cancel F-35 purchase
      – get out of all wars
      – reopen libraries
      – have open, transparent government

      I told her she’s gonna be pretty disappointed if she’s expecting that lol

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


*