11.04.2015 07:34 AM

Open thread for baseless cabinet speculation

We know who will be Prime Minister. But not the rest of cabinet!

So, before they’re all sworn in this morning, speculate endlessly about who will get what. It may not be accurate, but it’ll be fun!

35 Comments

  1. David G says:

    I’ll start the speculation – albiet, indirectly related to Cabinet, that the new CoS to PWGSC Minister will be Warren J Kinsella !

  2. William says:

    Don’t know enough for an exhaustive list, but here are some of my projections:

    Finance: Brison
    Garneau: Industry
    Goodale: House Leader
    Joly: Heritage
    Poissant: Agriculture
    McCrimmon and Sajjan (since Leslie isn’t supposedly in, not sure in which order): Defence and Veterans Affairs
    Steve McKinnon: Intergovernmental Affairs (why not?)
    Duclos: Revenue
    Dion: Environment
    Freeland: Foreign Affairs or International Trade (I would prefer both)
    Holland: Public Safety
    Tootoo: Northern Affairs
    Wilson-Raybould: Aboriginal Affairs (though I’m not sure it will be split with Northern Affairs)
    Leblanc: Democratic Reform

    Not a full list, but a start…

    • Matt says:

      I’ve been told Mark Holland isn’t exactly well liked within the Liberal Party.

      I doubt he’ll be given a cabinet position.

    • ottawacon says:

      Dion would be a high-risk but possibly high-return Environment minister. He was flawed as Martin’s Env minister, but he was also tasked with cleaning up a real mess. No question he would hit the ground running, which is probably essential. On the other hand, he might very quickly repeat the same running into blind alleys that had him struggling in 2005, where a new personality with new eyes might allow for some more productive alternatives.

  3. Jeff Paul says:

    Leslie to Immigration
    Brison to Finance
    Leblanc to Foreign Affairs
    Goodale to House Leader
    Vandenbeld to CIDA (Sec State or Parl Asst?)
    O’Regan to ESDC

  4. Derek Pearce says:

    Well apparently it’s known that Adam Vaughan will not be in. I’m surprised, I really thought he’d get some kind of new “municpal affairs” role. God knows a post like that is needed!

    • Bluegreenblogger says:

      Good point. Hard to talk about urban infrastructure if Vaughan is not at the table. Given the weighting of infrastructure spending in the campaign, I am sure some role will be found for him.

  5. SD says:

    50-50 men and women. However, a majority of the inner cabinet will be men (not including Trudeau). Bill Blair will not get a cabinet position. He may get some important committee chair position looking at human rights in Uzbekistan. Ralph Goodale will not become the finance minister. That would give him too much power vis-à-vis Justin Trudeau. He could become the deputy-prime minister.

    Warren Kinsella will become a senator-in-waiting.

  6. Baseless, right? A bunch of pure guesses? No criticism, no contest? Is it like BINGO and I get a prize if I get 5 right in a row (or some pattern)? Okay. Some guesswork-only names and wildly speculative possible portfolios, then:

    Carolyn Bennett, Aboriginal Affairs, Social Development, Whip, Deputy PM, or anything else, frankly

    Marc Garneau, Foreign Affairs or anything sciency

    Bardish Chagger (a friend with astounding capabilities who I hope gets the recognition she deserves), Multiculturalism, Heritage or Citizenship and Immigration

    Leona Alleslev, National Defense, Veterans Affairs

    Marie-Claude Bibeau, Industry or Tourism

    Bill Blair, (ugh) National Defense or Public Safety

    Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Finance, Industry, Health, Multiculturalism, Heritage or Citizenship and Immigration

    Bob Bratina, Infrastructure, Intergovernmental Affairs

    Sukh Dhaliwal, Environment, Economic Development

    Chrystia Freeland, Finance, Economic Development

    Pamela Goldsmith-Jones, Aboriginal Affairs, Economic Development, Finance, Infrastructure

    Linda Lapointe, Finance, Economic Development, Industry, Tourism

    Lloyd Longfield, Tourism, Industry, Infrastructure

    Karen Ludwig, Trade, Finance, Industry

    David McGuinty, Infrastructure, Constituional Affairs, Justice, Environment

    Alexandra Mendes, Immigration

    Seamus O’Regan, Intergovernmental Affairs

    Jane Philpott, Health

    Kim Rudd, Health, Economic Development

    Adam Vaughan, Sports, Employment, Social Development

    Jody Wilson-Raybould, Aboriginal Affairs, Justice, Attorney General,

    Arif Virani (I went to school with him), Labour, Immigration

    …skipped a bunch of options, but I have to go to work now. Do you think Trudeau will recreate the Status of Women portfolio? I suspect a reclamation of old, and some new, politically-correct portfolio titles…everything with messaging and a warm fuzzy glow around it. But I do also expect some serious pressure on this first cabinet to be special, not just in its composition but in its accomplishments.

  7. Tim Sullivan says:

    Kang, *Goodale, *Carr, *Morneau, Vaughn, Leslie, *Bains, Alghebra, *Garneau, *Dion, *Tootoo, Boissoneault, Lamoureux, MacAulay, Rota, Brison, *Leblanc, *Wilson-Raybould, *Freeland, *Foote, Duncan, *Joly, Tassi, Sgro, McCrimmon, Philott, Vanderbeld.

    * are my “most certainly choices. HuffPost says Philpott for sure, Leslie not so much.

    • Tim Sullivan says:

      Oops, posted too early: McGuinty, Mihychuk, Bennett, McKenna

      • Karl says:

        Tim,

        David McGuinty won’t be in. Too much local competition from McKenna and Leslie, and even if the latter won’t be in he is ahead of McGuinty in the line.

        This is a generational shift and he is on the wrong side of the divide.

  8. Matt says:

    Don’t really know who many of the people are, but I would hope Chrystia Freeland is nowhere near Finance or any Ministry that has anything to do with the economy.

  9. Bluegreenblogger says:

    There seem to be a few people plumping for Brison in Finance. Yeah, I kind of get it. He does have a Finance background, but is he really in contention for Finance? Not doubting, just surprised. There are a few other very obvious choices, Dion for whatever he wants (except finance, lol), Garneau, Goodale, Freeland, I suspect that Leblanc will get something, although that will be a sort of litmus test. For the rest, it is a balancing act, and will doubtless hold a surprise or three.

  10. Curtis Joynt says:

    So, no one is choosing an energy minister? Calgary Centre MP Kent Hehr perhaps.

  11. ABB says:

    Navdeep Bains for finance, a sure thing.

    Freeland for defence.

    Dion for Revenue.

    Goodale for Native Affairs.

    That sounds like a good start.

  12. godot10 says:

    Will Trudeau dis either Calgary or Edmonton and choose only one minister from Alberta, leaving one of the two cities as one of the only major cities in Canada without a cabinet minister?

  13. Mistake leaving Vaughan out, leaving Canada’s biggest city out on focus on municipal affairs, urban transportation, waterfront. No other Liberal MP is as qualified as Vaughan to advise the PM, represent local needs. I don’t like Vaughan, but I respect his credentials for my city.

    • Dan Forth says:

      I don’t like him either. He is arrogant pompous windbag. I am glad he gets to sit in the rear so we will hear him less.

  14. Cory says:

    Wonder if Trudeau will bring back the position of “Deputy PM”?

  15. A. Voter says:

    I think it would be a good idea to let MPs run for cabinet posts and be elected by the House, the same way the speaker is. The candidates could say what they want to do in each portfolio. Opposition members could run as well, even if it’s not likely they would win. Instead of being selected for the role they played in the prime ministers leadership campaign, they would be chosen on merit.

    • Tim Sullivan says:

      How does this ensure “merit”? A vote by definition is a popularity contest, not merit-based. The pool from which the candidates are selected is of itself polluted as far as “merit” goes, so you are 2 steps away from merit.

      This is by far the silliest thing I’ve hear about cabinet selection.

    • PJ says:

      Happy to see that Kirsty Duncan made cabinet……thought she might make Environment minister….but she will be an excellent Minister of Science….

  16. Derek Pearce says:

    Warren I’m curious– what do you think of the monarchy? I change my mind often regarding the merits of it. Hearing these oaths over and over is actually a touch of a turn-off. I like the Queen as person/personality though, and do like the link with our history it provides. Do you think we’d be more grown-up without it? The constitutional implications of trying to abolish the monarchy make me resigned to it (ie what an intractable nightmare that we don’t want to visit). I change my mind every 5 minutes….

    • Warren says:

      Like her, dislike the institution.

      • Eddie says:

        It is quite ridiculous that they swear an oath to a foreigner. Very colonial for a country that wants to be grown up. Canada can still keep attachments historical past with Britain without this goofiness. It holds the country’s vision back. Why should anyone in Canada swear a loyalty oath to the Queen of England? Why not swear an oath to the Pres of USA? Or leader of France? It is bizarre.

        • Derek Pearce says:

          To be technical about it– as is stated right in the oath itself– she is the Queen of Canada, and they are swearing allegiance to her as Queen of Canada, not England. However for me, the jury is out on whether Canada needs a monarch.

          • Bluegreenblogger says:

            Seriously, does it even matter? I think it has value. The Monarch does not interfere. Plays no overt political role. Is very hard to disentangle from our institutions, which untangling would mean precisely nothing but unsettlement and an oppoprtunity to screw it up. Also creates, or at least maintains a tight link to the UK. Who knows when and why we may want to call on our cousins across the sea? Mostly though, there are plenty of Canadians who would object, on many different grounds. So really and seriously, what’s the point?

      • Mike says:

        In other news, Warren to be named new Globe and Mail editor. 🙂

  17. MC says:

    My BINGO score is just 5.5 (out of what? who knows?) (.5 for guessing the person, + .5 for getting the right portfolio). I am ignoring that there are some no-brainers on the list that I didn’t bother to include or think about. I didn’t take it more seriously than a game anyway.

    Bardish Chagger (.5) Small Business and Tourism (she can and will do more than this in time, but it is a great starting place for her) CONGRATUALTIONS Bardish!

    Marc Garneau (.5) Transport (that almost sounds like a joke in the making)

    Chrystia Freeland (.5) International Trade

    Carolyn Bennett (.5) Indigenous and Northern Affairs (+.5)

    Jody Wilson-Raybould (.5) Justice/AG (+.5)

    Jane Philpott (.5) Health (+.5)

    Marie-Claude Bibeau (.5) International Dev’t and La francophonie (I suspected the Language/Francophone ministry would emerge somewhere)

    On Warren Kinsella’s site I speculated Trudeau might recreate the Status of Women portfolio, so I am giving myself +.5 for that, even though I didn’t speculate who would get it.

    Interesting appointments. It will be an interesting first year. Not sure it makes sense to expect caution, but unlikely to be reckless in all respects.

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