06.02.2016 08:13 AM

Highly-Scientific Poll™: who’s gonna win the next Ontario election?

As of this month, Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals – and they are decidedly her Liberals, make no mistake about that – are in the second half of their mandate. When you are in government, this is when everything starts to change (or should).

I am not involved with the Ontario Liberals in any way, shape or form. It’s a new crew, now, and that’s as it should be. Wynne has got herself a truly excellent top staff [cf. Bevan, MacKenzie], and she’s one of those politicians [cf. Messrs. Chretien and Trudeau] who benefits from being consistently underestimated.

The Ontario Tories, meanwhile, have picked themselves a new leader who is attempting to push and pull his party towards the centre of the ideological spectrum, and restore “progressive” to its nomenclature. Patrick Brown took over one of the most successful political parties in Western democracy through hard work and sheer force of will. He’s obviously not someone to be underestimated, either. Equally-smart staff [cf. Solimon, Pappalardo, Hong].  Has the pole position, for now.

The Ontario NDP, finally, have a well-liked leader in Andrea Horwath, and some pretty darn impressive advisors [cf. Ball, Balagus, Nash].  Her party isn’t where it needs to be, however – or where Brown needs them to be.

This guy, at the Star, starts by suggesting Wynne is in trouble, then ends by saying she might not be. Way to go out on a punditry limb, there, big fella.

Anyway. What do you think, O Readers?  Who is gonna win in the less-than-two-years that remain?  Highly-Scientific Poll™! Vote now, vote often!

20 Comments

  1. TimL says:

    I chose PC, but I don’t really believe it. Deep down I think the Liberals made some deal with Satan to win forever.

  2. If the Liberals win the next election I will leave what was the most prosperous province in Canada and head west. I cannot understand nor justify people who vote for a party that are a bunch of liars and spend taxpayer money like there is no end to it and just laugh at it! Seriously! she is the only woman on my hate list. Where is Dalton? Is he in jail where he should be. Wynne should be in jail also.

  3. SD says:

    Even though I am an NDP supporter, I will give the edge to Patrick Brown’s Progressive Conservatives. I don’t know how he will govern ideologically if he becomes the next premier, he will likely appear more moderate than Tim Hudak when campaigning. Already, he has made overtures to the LGBT community and to teachers through OECTA (the Catholic teachers’ union).

  4. Rene Gauthier says:

    Warren,

    It comes down to the NDP and how much respect Andrea Horwath can gain.
    At this point, you are correct. Andrea is not there and I’m not sure if she will make it there.
    She has very little popularity outside of Hamilton and she hasn’t anything to change that.

    If she cannot get her voters closer to her, she will lose them to Kathleen Wynne.

  5. Greg Vezina says:

    “Highly-Scientific Poll™” indeed. You left out None of the Above, which is polling higher than any of the three major parties, and what about the Green party? OK I get it Junk science is all you need to be an expert and to suppress truth. Keep up the good work for the red Kool-Aid crowd. They actually really need your help in the next election getting more votes than the Communist party might be a real problem.

  6. James Bow says:

    What? No Other? Why is there no Other!

    Rigged! The System is RiggeD!!!

  7. monkey says:

    I chose PC simply because 15 years is a long time in power and usually at that point people want change. Nonetheless I wouldn’t underestimate the Liberals especially if the PC’s do something stupid which they have a habit of doing in the past decade.

  8. Andre says:

    I am beside myself that over a hundred people voted for that corrupted premier. Must be on her payroll or kickbacks. Shame on you.

  9. George Hampton says:

    I choose ‘Free Soil’. Or Whig.

  10. Robert Viera says:

    As a constituent in Patrick Brown’s former federal riding of Barrie, I must take issue with your use of the words “hard work” and “Patrick Brown” in the same sentence.

    While campaigning for the Ontario PC Party leadership, Patrick Brown:

    – Failed to attend 17 consecutive meetings of the House of Commons standing committee on Justice and Human Rights between July 8, 2014 (Meeting #36) and November 18, 2014 (Meeting #52) before being removed from that committee.

    – Attended just one out of eight meetings of the Standing Joint Committee for the Scrutiny of Regulations between the beginning of the fall session in 2014 and his resignation from the House of Commons on May 13, 2015.

    – Failed to attend 103 votes in the House of Commons between the beginning of the fall session in 2014 and his resignation from the House of Commons on May 13, 2015.

    I don’t know how you can credit Patrick Brown with “hard work” when he rarely showed-up for the job that we were paying him to do.

    It’s not as if Brown has ever had a heavy workload. Despite more than 9 years in the Harper government, Brown was never in cabinet, was never an assistant to a cabinet minister, nor even the chair of a parliamentary committee.

    During his time in parliament, Brown spent more than 150 days traveling around the world on lobbyist-funded junkets known as “sponsored travel”.

    In 2012 and 2013, Brown ditched his parliament duties to attend Wayne Gretzky’s hockey fantasy camp in Las Vegas.

    After spending the better part of a year failing to represent his federal constituents but continuing to collect his federal salary, Brown’s resignation left his former constituents in Barrie without any federal representation for the next 5 months.

    After leaving his federal constituents without representation and balking at his first opportunity to run for a seat in the Ontario Legislature (Sudbury), Brown threw a hissy fit when Kathleen Wynne initially refused to call a provincial by-election in the riding of Brown’s choice before his former federal constituents had a chance to replace him in the upcoming federal election.

    More recently, rather than showing up for work in the Ontario Legislature one Monday, Patrick Brown went to the Boston marathon.

    Prior to becoming the MP for Barrie in 2006, Patrick Brown briefly operated a law practice in Barrie and, according to the discipline file of a immigration consultant named Yolanda Simao, was supposed to help a group of Korean immigrants find truck-driving jobs, but the file states:

    “In early 2006 ULSC began to receive complaints from a number of the Korean truck drivers. At some point in time, Mr. Patrick Brown ceased to be a part of the picture. The Panel was not provided significant testimony in this regard,”

    “Additional mutually agreed upon facts were presented by both counsel. They are that on April 10, 2007 after the individual complaints were filed, Mr. Yakimovich, an Investigator, was retained by CSIC.”

    “On July 23rd, 2007, Mr. Yakimovich interviewed Mr. Patrick Brown, the lawyer listed on the brochure at Exhibit 1 Tab C-1 and Member of Parliament for Barrie since 2006.”

    Rather than hard work, what these things show is Patrick Brown’s inability or unwillingness to follow through on his commitments.

    Before the age of 40, Brown has run for every level of government, quit his previous municipal and federal posts before finishing his term of office and shuttered his law practice.

    With no spouse and no children to ground him, what’s to keep Brown from bailing on Ontarians when the next shiny thing comes along?

    • Cath says:

      Is that all you’ve got?

      Ontario has had enough of the Wynne Liberals……….THAT’S the motivator.

      Nothing else is going to matter.

      • Robert Viera says:

        When the majority of the electorate start to pay attention to their possible choices for premier in the next election, the first thing they will learn about the new Ontario PC leader is that he was an MP in the Stephen Harper government for nearly a decade. That will be enough for many.

  11. Robert Viera says:

    I’m just a former constituent of Brown’s. Imagine what those professional journalists at Queen’s Park could find … if they ever bother to look.

  12. Jerome says:

    Patrick Brown has never ever run in a serious election. Ever. He only sneaks into places where this is no real opposition. Sure, he’s decent at getting out and shaking hands. But he’s only ever done it while preaching to the choir. So big whoop then.

    He looked completely shocked and overwhelmed when he won within his own party. A place he’s been his whole life. How’s he going to react when he has to face a real opposition? His voting record is full of demons, no matter what he says out loud. So either, his hard-right past defines him and he’s in trouble, because nobody likes a Harris or Harper Tory anymore. Or, his new “softer” image prevails, and the hard-liners stay home.

    Mid-term polls are stupid. Only whiney curmudgeons answer those things. Wynne has more money and a much better team. She’ll be standing on the higher ground when the writ is dropped, for sure.

    • Mike says:

      Jerome you are spot on.

      Full disclosure, I am in rural SW Ontario where the OLP got creamed in 2014. Patrick Brown gives me hope that we can elect a Liberal MPP in 2018.

  13. Ted Heighington says:

    The Liberals will lose in the next election – but not necessarily lose power.

    Best case for OLP is an honourable, and accountable minority. Best case for Ontario voters is to give them an outright dishonourable discharge from power.

    Liberals forget they didn’t win the last election due to popularity, Tim Hudak’s Conservatives lost the election due to lack of popularity.

    Voters are still pissed, just at the other party this time. We will have to be careful not to over-react again. The old David Peterson-Bob Rae “whoops what were we thinking” angry voter revenge mistake disease still lingers in tax-payer temperaments. Maybe even more so these days….

  14. bluegreenblogger says:

    Gut says NDP, brain says not so fast. I think Wynn was the hail mary pass that worked, but not again methinks. I just cannot imagine the PC’s somehow becoming electable. Dippers have been in the penalty box for a generation now. Does anybody even remember ‘Pink Floyd’? Probably not, and Rae Days doesn’t have the impact it did when Rae was a Dipper. But really, it is a ways off still.

  15. M.Wryter says:

    If you did not catch it when wynne took over power the first thing out of her disgusting mouth was…DALTON,….DALTON….WE WILL CONTINUE THE WORK DALTON……and true to her word she did………..when the ” boy ” was elected, the first thing out of his big yap was…….” we will run the country on a series of deficits……..and people wonder why were in trouble……wake up everyone

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