Musings —11.07.2016 08:26 AM—
Quito Maggi and his team do very good work, number one. And, number two, he has a long pedigree as a partisan Liberal, so nobody can accuse of him of being another party’s shill with this bomb blast:
Of the 2,524 people surveyed by phone on Nov. 2, 19 per cent support the Liberals, down from 21 per cent when the last Mainstreet/Postmedia poll was conducted on Sept. 17-18. The Progressive Conservatives increased their lead by one point to 36 per cent. The New Democrats saw the biggest shift, with a three-point jump to 21 per cent, while the Green party held steady at five per cent.
If in any way accurate, this is obviously brutal for Ontario Liberals. But here’s a few things to keep in mind about Team Red:
- Kathleen Wynne’s obituary was written up quite a few times in 2014, too. She still won a big majority – admittedly, mainly because the PCs snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. But in politics, as in hockey, an overtime goal is still a win. She won.
- Wynne has serious bench strength. Her all-in-one Chief of Staff and Principal Secretary Andrew Bevan, for example, is one of the most capable and decent guys I’ve ever met in politics, at any level. She’s got some pretty experienced ministers, too.
- My view on “scandal” stuff is well known: until Joe and Jane Frontporch see you led away in orange overalls and handcuffs, they aren’t nearly as interested in “scandals” as politicos and journalists are. Allegations of “scandal” get made far too often, and the voting public just tune it all out.
- I’ve heard the rumours about Kathleen Wynne resigning, too. Until it happens, I just don’t believe it. I’m not part of her team, but I’ve known her for a long time. She likes to be underestimated, and she doesn’t ever walk away from a fight.
That all said, Quito’s poll is, as noted, simply brutal. Three things: one, Patrick Brown may have a gaggle of candidates who left plenty to be desired – here and here – but he clearly wants to jettison the social conservative whack jobs, and he has attracted more minorities to his party than any PC leader in my lifetime. Two, Andrea Horwath, is clearly doing something right, if she is in second place, and the Grits aren’t. Three, Justin Trudeau floated all Liberal boats – but that no longer seems to be the case in Ontario.
It would have taken a lot, today, to shift my laser-like focus on tomorrow’s U.S. vote.
This poll did that.