— Musings —11.07.2016 08:26 AM
That Ontario poll
Quito Maggi and his team do very good work, number one. And, number two, he has a long pedigree as a partisan Liberal, so nobody can accuse of him of being another party’s shill with this bomb blast:
If in any way accurate, this is obviously brutal for Ontario Liberals. But here’s a few things to keep in mind about Team Red:
- Kathleen Wynne’s obituary was written up quite a few times in 2014, too. She still won a big majority – admittedly, mainly because the PCs snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. But in politics, as in hockey, an overtime goal is still a win. She won.
- Wynne has serious bench strength. Her all-in-one Chief of Staff and Principal Secretary Andrew Bevan, for example, is one of the most capable and decent guys I’ve ever met in politics, at any level. She’s got some pretty experienced ministers, too.
- My view on “scandal” stuff is well known: until Joe and Jane Frontporch see you led away in orange overalls and handcuffs, they aren’t nearly as interested in “scandals” as politicos and journalists are. Allegations of “scandal” get made far too often, and the voting public just tune it all out.
- I’ve heard the rumours about Kathleen Wynne resigning, too. Until it happens, I just don’t believe it. I’m not part of her team, but I’ve known her for a long time. She likes to be underestimated, and she doesn’t ever walk away from a fight.
That all said, Quito’s poll is, as noted, simply brutal. Three things: one, Patrick Brown may have a gaggle of candidates who left plenty to be desired – here and here – but he clearly wants to jettison the social conservative whack jobs, and he has attracted more minorities to his party than any PC leader in my lifetime. Two, Andrea Horwath, is clearly doing something right, if she is in second place, and the Grits aren’t. Three, Justin Trudeau floated all Liberal boats – but that no longer seems to be the case in Ontario.
It would have taken a lot, today, to shift my laser-like focus on tomorrow’s U.S. vote.
This poll did that.
So, PC minority or majority gov’t if the election were held today? Would Horvath support the PC’s if push came to shove?
Scandals are one thing. The obscene electricity bills for ordinary Ontarians while the Bay Street friends of the Ontario Liberal Party make excessive windfall profits for decades into the future for their alternative energy projects despoiling the rural Ontario environment are another.
Ontario has already made a lot of the secrifices necassary to reduce its greenhouse gas emission from its electricty sector. The other (non-hydro) provinces and states will have to go through some thing.
One can go green without selling out ordinary Ontarians to guarantee obscene profits for decades for the Liberals Bay Street friends.
Butts-o-nomics, the selling out of ordinary Ontarians to the 1%’ers, is now going national, with Trudeau, Mourneau, and Butts selling out ordinary Canadians with their Infrastructure Privatization Bank, where Canadian infrastructure assets will be sold off to global 1%’ers, and Canadians will be left with large user fee and tolls (rentier streams to the global elites), like the huge electricity rates in Ontario.
Kathleen Wynne is a crafty, skilled politician, who should not be discounted; I’m sure the Ontario Conservatives have finally learned not to take her and her strategy team lightly. That said, I beg to differ as it concerns her cabinet bench strength. No real business Liberals in sight. (Sousa is a lightweight.) The only true cabinet star: Deb Matthews. Hoping Sandra Pupatello can be persuaded to lead the party should Ms. Wynne decide to step down.
“Her all-in-one Chief of Staff and Principal Secretary Andrew Bevan, for example, is one of the most capable and decent guys I’ve ever met in politics, at any level.”
–then why is he working for Wynne? Shouldn’t doing so make him feel dirty?
You know the old saying, “The most important thing in politics is sincerity. If you can fake that, you got it made.”
Brown’s problem he is really bad a faking that.
In Ontario, as is the case federally, arrogance is the Liberals’ kryptonite. And Wynne and her crew have been oozing arrogance for quite a while now. Smiting the Mighty (Mouse) Tim Hudak has given them a rather inflated view of themselves and their gifts.
Social conservative whack jobs like Sam Oosterhoff ? Brown is stuck with him.
André Marin ? The man is a seeker and a carpetbagger. He’s perfect.
Would Patrick Brown have jettisoned the social conservatives if the media hadn’t caught him pandering to them on the Friday before the by-election vote? I doubt it. The PCs need a leader who knows what the right thing to do is, and doesn’t just do the right thing after getting caught doing the wrong thing.
Likewise, Brown’s 11th hour support for a price on carbon comes with little credibility after Brown spent nearly a decade helping Stephen Harper undermine efforts by other levels of government to transition us away from fossil fuels.
I like the Liberal Party, and am content to give them my vote maybe half the time. But Wynne just turned a corner. Just too many allegations of sleaze, that are credible. There will be no refresh for Ontario Liberals if people like me turn their backs. Someone else will get my vote the next time.