— Musings —11.06.2016 08:48 AM
Today’s #USpoli #USelection numbers: those “Trump surge” headlines helped
As (me and others hoped), they scared complacent Dems off the couch and into action. Thus, the last-weekend growth in support for HRC, with women and Hispanics leading the way. Via Jeff:
#POLLS 11/6 12AM
■ABC C+5
■NOL C+5
■MC C+5
■RAND C+9
■REU C+4
■CBS C+3
■FOX C+2
■GOO C+3
■SM C+7
■CNBC C+10
■PEW C+6
■SU C+9
■QU C+7
■BL C+9
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Hey Warren,
Not that I believe a thing Trump and his people say, but is there no survey putting Trump ahead or even with HRC?
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In terms of national poll, aside from IBD/TIPP Tracking (Trump +1) and LA Times/USC Tracking (+5), no. LA Times/USC has had Trump in the lead in a two person race for most of the election and I have to question their methods. Most of the national polls seem to be rending upwards for Clinton since last week’s meltdown, though it seems more Three Mile Island than Chernobyl. Looks like she may have recovered. She is lower in some of the states though and Nevada poll average has her behind, but given the early voting numbers which apparently have matched or surpassed 2012, that doesn’t seem realistic (and polls of Nevada voters generally suck).
I’m curious about the impact of the news today that the emails recovered by the FBI from Weiner’s computer were in fact mostly doubles of what they already had. On the one hand it is probably welcomed news by he Clinton campaign, however the damage done to her during the 9 days the issue was hanging over her head can’t be overstated. I think she’ll still win, but the down ballot races that were very winnable may no longer be. Time will tell.
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Tricky very tricky. The Black vote down from Obama highs and there’s uncertainty among the forcasters as to the latino vote which is split (at least in Florida).
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/304530-experts-hedge-bets-as-election-tightens
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FBI just cleared Clinton emails (again). http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/06/politics/comey-tells-congress-fbi-has-not-changed-conclusions/index.html?adkey=bn This should repair some but of course not all of the damage caused by the first letter. Why he didn’t just release this letter and not the other one is beyond me. It only took the FBI a few days apparently to realize that all the emails in question were duplicates!
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Don’t you realize the Trump supporters have a perfect answer for all of this? If the news is incriminating to Clinton, then it’s legit. If it exonerates her, then it’s part of the media conspiracy.