— Musings —11.03.2016 07:03 AM
Your morning #USPOLI numbers
From Jeff Gauvin.
11/3 8AM
■REUT C +6
■RAND C+9
■CBS/NYT C+3
■GOOG C+3
■ABC: C+2
■SVM C+7
■CNBC C+10
■PEW C+6
■SU C+9
■QUI C+7
■BLO C+9
— Musings —11.03.2016 07:03 AM
From Jeff Gauvin.
11/3 8AM
■REUT C +6
■RAND C+9
■CBS/NYT C+3
■GOOG C+3
■ABC: C+2
■SVM C+7
■CNBC C+10
■PEW C+6
■SU C+9
■QUI C+7
■BLO C+9
Many a time WK you have said that the best way to assess where the state of an election is by looking at where the candidates are campaigning and where they are spending their resources. The above polls do not follow your statement which has always been a very good predictor.
As you know, I consider both HRC and DJT (boy, does that look weird, and sounds even weirder) equal EVILS. What I truly feared was continued Republican control of the Senate and House of Representatives.
While HRC has raised significantly more money than DJT on the presidential front, Republican candidates for Congress have a similar advantage over Democratic candidates. I believe it is this money on Congressional races, that has leveled HRC’s tide. What do you think?
All that has happened is the remaining gettable independent vote (mainly Libertarian) has gone to him. The earlier gettable independents (mainly Greens) went to her.
This was always going to happen. Obama won a huge electoral college victory in 2012 with a puny lead on voting day. Obama carried 26 states; Romney 24. It was that close.
There was always going to be false media horserace narrative – there always is. But HRC is still going to clean up. Why?
Polls don’t measure ground game.
She’s got the biggest ground game in political history.
My prediction is that the polls will close up dramatically this week as the polling companies move away from their more partisan positions to try to capture the end result. We’ve seen this happen quite a few times… ABC is just the first to move. Also, the polls were wrong just about EVERY single time with Trump during the nomination. Something is going on here.. Tuesday will be interesting for sure.
The polls where pretty accurate during the nomination. The pundits thought he would fade like many other candidates did during the 2012 nomination.