— Musings —12.29.2016 07:13 PM
Ontario politics: follow the money
Given the number of Ontario Liberal fundraising requests we’ve been getting in recent months – given the advantages of incumbency, and given the fact that the rule changes were developed by the Ontario Liberals themselves – this was just a shocker:
Money was supposed to be the one problem they didn’t have!
Now, I stress: I am not involved with the OLP in any way, shape or form, but if I were asked for advice about what to do…I wouldn’t have an answer. These fundraising numbers, plus the poll numbers, seem insurmountable.
Herle and Co. are telling everyone not to worry, I hear. But if I were them?
I’d worry.
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“Herle and Co. are telling everyone not to worry, I hear. ” That’s fine by me.
The going rumour is that the Libs. have stockpiled enough to see them through to the next campaign raised BEFORE they put in the new rules.
Perhaps this 2016 amount is in addition to that?
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I smell toast.
Pity there’s nobody left except for flunkies. Somebody needs to tell Wynne and her inner circle to go. Sauve qui peut …
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Corporations can’t vote.
Having the biggest war chest didn’t work for the Harper Conservatives in 2015.
The list of 2016 donors to the Ontario PCs includes former Harper MPs John Baird, Brad Butt, Ed Holder, Ted Opitz, and Susan Truppe. (There may be others. I haven’t looked at all the donors.)
Other defeated former Harper MPs (e.g. Paul Calandra) are set to be Ontario PC candidates in 2018.
Add to those the old faces of the Mike Harris government that still sit in the PC caucus and you’ve got a team that will remind voters of Stephen Harper and Mike Harris.
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There is also the multi-million dollar Liberal advantage in contributions to the Ontario Working Coalition.
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The new election law tightly restricts 3rd party election advertising.
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Warren,
If I was Wynne, I would have come up by now with an out-of-the-box reason why voters would want to re-elect her government above all else — including taking proactive action over legitimate gripes.
And as the saying goes: if they fight yesterday’s war in the next campaign — they lose, and lose big.
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Ontario Liberals will win by a sliver in 2018, thanks to Greater Toronto. Question becomes: who does Andrea Horwath prop up? And, for how long?
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Its always easier to fundraise through discontent and anger than passive indifference. Not saying that the voters of Ontario are passively indifferent to the their governing party; they could very well be frustrated. Just saying that its easier to convince people to pony up more money if its seen as a cathartic act of defiance.
I don’t know if fundraising numbers are reliable indicators of voter support — but if those numbers are to be taken at face value, then Ontario Liberals are still eating into the NDP’s lunch. Because $2.7M is comparatively uncompetitive. The fact that the NDP is trailing in third place despite a decline for the Ont. Liberals could mean that the centre-left vote will still come out for Wynne if it means preventing the PCs.
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These totals may be a bit premature.
I just looked at the raw donation data from Elections Ontario, and the data on donations to the Ontario Liberal Party for three out of the four by-elections held this year is not there.
There may also be additional donations coming in until tomorrow. The Liberals might even use this story to light a fire under their own donors.
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Thanks Robert
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Hey Robert: enough. This is my web site, not a wall to be vandalized. We all get that you hate Brown. Give us instead what you think, not what you hate.