05.01.2017 09:34 AM

BC Libs edge ahead?

So says one pollster, here.

Exclusive poll shows BC Liberals edging slight lead after televised debate

A new exclusive online Ipsos poll for Global News and CKNW suggests the BC Liberals have a slight lead over the NDP after Wednesday’s televised debate.

29 per cent of voters said they believed Christy Clark would be the best premier for the province, while 26 per cent put their weight behind the NDP’s John Horgan.

15 per cent said they prefer Green leader Andrew Weaver, while 30 per cent surveyed didn’t have an opinion.

To my BC Lib friends – and, yes, pious and abusive Dippers, they are my friends, because I helped run the ’96 BC Liberals campaign, and I came pretty close to being Gord Campbell’s COS, and the BC NDP are the most corrupt party I have ever encountered (cf. Bingogate, Hydrogate, etc.), and I have many many friends there still, and I admire Christy Clark for her loyalty to certain friends (unlike another Premier who will not be named) – I say: good work. Keep at it. Campaign like you are way, way behind, as I know you will. 

This ain’t over, not by a long shot. But it may be that (a) the other guys (again) peaked too soon (b) they (again) underestimated Christy and her team, and (c) Angry John Horgan’s sexism and anger issues turned off plenty of women. 

Just over a week to go. A lifetime, in BC politics. 


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    Luke says:

    I lived in BC until a little over a year ago. Last election, I really disliked Christy Clark and her group, mainly because of their (winning) preference for image and impression over truth and sincerity, and the connections to the federal conservatives. Now, however, my passing impression is that she is doing ok despite my misgivings, and the NDP still seems a long shot. Libs will win. Dissenting votes should go to greens. They are a legitimate option in BC these days.

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    Miles Lunn says:

    If you also include the post debate mainstreet poll and Justason they show similar numbers that being said as you will remember from the 1996 election to guarantee a win the party needs at least a 3 point lead as in 1996 the BC Liberals won the popular vote but lost the election. Now true their vote is not as inefficient as they run up the margins in the wealthy Lower Mainland areas whereas this time I suspect they will win those areas but not by the same massive margins as they did in 1996; I suspect the Greens will pick up a lot of the wealthy voters who weren’t old enough to vote in 1996. Also if the Greens make gains on Vancouver Island a minority government cannot be ruled out although I still think it will be a majority. For the BC Liberals they are well ahead amongst the over 55 which is good as that group generally votes and they remember the 90s quite well and some even remember the Dave Barrett government. Amongst millennials the NDP doesn’t have the lead you would expect but it appears they are all over the map and seem to have a tough time deciding. Off course turnout is often bad amongst this group and I don’t think Horgan is like Obama or Trudeau, otherwise I don’t see him inspiring young people to show up in droves. Horgan’s biggest problem is the Vancouver Island numbers as Vancouver Island is an NDP stronghold and they should have a double digit lead.

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    Keith Richmond says:

    It remains to be seen whether this poll is an outlier or a new trend. Also, interestingly, the additional votes for BC Libs appear to be coming from the Greens. Conventional wisdom (for what it is worth) says that Green’s second choice would be NDP, but that does not appear to be the case.

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      Miles Lunn says:

      A smaller polling firm Justason showed similar numbers with it being BC Lib 38%, NDP 37%, and Greens 21% so only for the Greens they were off. Also Mainstreet’s post debate poll of those who watched it was 39% BC Lib, 37% NDP, and 23% Green so it does sort of fit the trend, but we shall see. I think the biggest indicator it is probably in this ballpark is to look at what ridings the leaders are visiting. By and large they are ridings that were won by less than 5% 4 years ago so that suggests the NDP could win, but if they do it will be a very narrow win, not a landslide and likewise even if the BC Liberals win and won’t be a blowout. The only interesting thing is pretty much any time BC switches governments, it is a landslide and since asides from the one Mainstreet poll 10 days ago most are suggesting a close race and everytime it’s been close in the polls, the governing party has always prevailed, although all rules are meant to be broken I guess.

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    Ronald O'Dowd says:


    If this was a normal election, the lead change agent would win if residents truly wanted change. That’s election template one. The second deals with a leader like Harper, and potentially Trudeau, who personally both make elections and then break one. My view is that Clark handled Horgan’s comments just right and it’s moving the needle her way. They may not love Christy but quite obviously, many want nothing to do with Horgan. That’s template number three.

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    Robert Frindt says:

    The TV commercials I see from the Liberals (disclosure, Victoria area) are negative and equally against both NDP and Greens.

    Not the ads you would run if you actually had a lead.

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      Miles Lunn says:

      Actually in the Lower Mainland I have seen surprisingly few BC Liberal ones and more BC NDP ones and the NDP ones are quite negative. Lets remember the Greater Victoria is considerably less favourable to the BC Liberals than the province as a whole, in fact if they were trailing badly they probably wouldn’t bother advertising there at all since they hold no seats in that area. Still it will be interesting to see what the polls over the next few days say and more importantly what the results are. I’ve seen a lot of conflicting information so I would not be surprised with either a BC Liberal or BC NDP win.

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