06.20.2017 07:40 AM

Now is the time for all good #ONpoli folks to come to the aid of the party

…if they’re Ontario Liberals, that is:

The Liberals are the choice of just 23% of decided and leaning voters — down from 34% — and would secure just nine seats if an election were held now, the pollster projects.

Forum Research found that 44% of decided and leaning voters polled support the Progressive Conservatives and 24% back the NDP.

Those findings would translate into an 87-seat majority for PC Leader Patrick Brown and 26 seats for NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, making her party the official opposition, Forum Research projects.

The Liberals are struggling in their stronghold of Toronto and the GTA, explaining the nine-seat projection, according to Forum.

The requisite caveats:

  • It’s Forum
  • Seat projections are voodoo science
  • No one is paying much attention
  • An election is a year away
  • Wynne’s been counted out before
  • She has a top-notch legislative staff

However, it’s (a) consistent with many other polls over many months (b) Brown now has folks like Velshi and Robertson, et al., who won big for Harper (c) the PCs have a massive money advantage and are using it, and (d) my gut tells me it’s probably about right.

What do you think, O Smart Reader? Comments are open.

 

23 Comments


  1. Notice: Undefined offset: 180 in /nfs/c05/h06/mnt/72829/domains/warrenkinsella.com/html/wp-content/themes/warroom/functions.php on line 314
    Pat says:

    If Brown can keep the fringe elements at bay, the Premier’s job is his. Then again, isnt that what’s always been the case for the Ontario PCs?


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    Don MacNeil says:

    It’s too late for a turnaround. This is a save the furniture exercise


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    Jamie Gilcig says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GU0d8kpybVg


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    P. Brenn says:

    pupatello…may not Wyn but do not want to get to third party status..current group stale


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    Steven Fishman says:

    The problem is that the Liberals are letting Patrick Brown define himself, instead of Brown being defined by the Liberals. For the Liberals to have a chance they need to define Brown and start to do it fast. Brown was a low level MP for years in the Harper government, and he never amounted to anything, and now this guy might become Premier. Look at how he won the leadership of the PC Party, and look at the types of candidates they have already selected. It’s not too late to turn this around for the Liberals, but if they wait until the fall, it will be, and they will end up in 3rd place.


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      Matt says:

      They’ve tried repeatedly to define Brown, at least at the local level in several by-elections.

      It has failed.

      They have tried to lay legislative traps for Brown. He zigs when they expect him to zag.


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        Steven Fishman says:

        By-Elections are not a good indicator as the turnout is usually below 30%, and voters tend to not vote for the party in power. I’ll give Brown credit for his recent TV and Radio ads, as he’s getting his name and face out to the general public. His ads are positive, and the Liberals need to step up their game. Voters don’t really follow what goes on at Queens Park, but they do pay attention to social media, TV, and listen to the radio, and that’s where the Liberals need to be.


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      Howard says:

      “Brown was a low level MP for years in the Harper government, and he never amounted to anything”

      He was like 12 when first elected MP. You expected him to get the Finance gig did you?

      Anyway this guy who “never amounted to anything” is running rings around your Liberals. And unlike PM Selfie, he’s doing it without a famous name or a family trust fund.

      He’s actually not conservative enough for my taste but beggars can’t be choosers considering the state of affairs Ontario is in.


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    Randy says:

    If the property market in Toronto and GTA takes a dump a lot of people will blame the Liberals for the loss of their imagined wealth and financial prowess


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    Roy says:

    What was the support for Premier McLeod when the writ was dropped 51%, if my memory serves me right.


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    Daniel says:

    The writing’s been on the wall for a while, and every talented or ambitious Liberal in Ontario moved to Ottawa 2 years ago. We’re left with the dregs running this province.

    There’s nothing to be done. The destructive efforts to buy votes have failed. Just take the L and stop digging deeper, Liberals.


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    Tiger says:

    I think Brown has been super-careful not to fall into the traps set for him.

    At that point, it’s been fourteen years now. Fifteen by election time. Tough to beat that tide.


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    Dork in East York says:

    I’m not surprised to see Wynne in third, but I agree that 9 seats seems waaaay too low. Hell even the post-Rae NDP eked out 17 seats.


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    Howard says:

    Wow, and that’s AFTER the minimum wage and increased vacation policy announcements.

    I give her credit for taking one for the team in what she must realize is a lost cause. Next Liberal leader can rebuild without the taint of an election defeat. Although it is my hope that this destructive party is gone from power for a good 15-20 years.


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    P. Brenn says:

    even at press conferences when they are doling out the money the enthusiasm appears to be gone – Sandals , Matthews , Chiarelli..surely they have had enough anyways ..


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    Patricia Morfee says:

    I am really getting tired of his ads introducing himself to us in St. Thomas/London area on the London station. They are every other ad telling us how his party is inclusive to everyone. No matter religion, sexual orientation et al. They are nauseating to say the least. We have two Conservatives here already, federally and provincially. We are trying to get rid of them both. They are useless. We worked on two Liberal campaigns to get rid of them but no luck. This being Conservative SW Ontario, we don’t have much faith it will happen. He is preaching to the choir here.


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    Ronald O'Dowd says:

    Warren,

    Huh. If I was in the basement, common sense would have told me long ago to reach out and extend a hand to talented previously “overlooked” Liberals. Geez, they can’t even get that part right…


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      Warren says:

      The Wizard thinks he doesn’t need help. He’s a genius, you see.


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        Matt says:

        So then maybe the best thing that could happen to the Liberals is to finish in third place, dump all those currently in charge to refresh the party, and spend the time until 2023 rebuilding.


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    lou says:

    First the policies hammered our parents who are retired and on fixed incomes. Then to make up for it, they decided to hammer our children who will have to pay the bill. At some point, they will come for us and more are starting to realize that Wynne plus Trudeau equals Greece.


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    Eastern Rebellion says:

    Just wait for the court cases that are scheduled to begin later this year…that will really help with Premier Gran’s popularity. She has a hectoring, samctimoniuos speaking style which really irritates the listener. Look, I think Brown is in over his head, but I don’t know what this government can do to turn the Titanic around. Nothing is working. Brown will just sit there on the fence and not rise to any of the Lib’s gambits. Unfortunately for them, their credibility is in the toilet, which is why their attempts to smear Brown aren’t working. I don’t know why Horvath isn’t more popular though.


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    Keith says:

    Her and McGuinty… Worst leaders for Ontario in history. Absolute worse. Uneducated voters will vote for them or voter who do not care about the future. Horrible.

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