07.18.2017 11:53 AM

Campaign Research: Ontario horserace numbers

From our friends at Campaign Research, who are among the (exceedingly small) group who are the best pollsters in Canada.

A War Room/www.warrenkinsella.com exclusive!  Comments are open.


TORONTO, JULY 12, 2017 – In the sixth wave of the Campaign Research Poll, a provincial online public opinion omnibus survey conducted among a sample of 943 Ontario voters, just fewer than 4 in 10 will vote Progressive Conservative if a provincial vote were held tomorrow (38%), whereas just more than 3 in 10 will vote Liberal (31%). Fewer than a quarter will vote for the NDP (23%) and few will vote Green (6%).

These results are almost identical to those noted last month (June 13, PCs – 38%, Liberals – 30%, NDP – 24%). The PC vote is especially strong among the oldest (46%), males (44%) more so than females (33%), federal Conservatives (93%), those in mid income groups ($60K to $80K – 52%) and in the GTA surrounding Toronto (42%). The Liberal vote is strongest among the youngest (45%), females (36%), rather than males (27%), in the city of Toronto (39%), among federal Liberals (69%), and the wealthy ($80K to $100K – 41%). The NDP vote is common to areas outside the GTA and Toronto (27%), among federal New Democrats (89%) and mid income groups ($40K to $60K – 33%).

LEADER APPROVALS ARE GENERALLY STABLE Premier Wynne has the approval of fewer than one in five Ontarians (17%), and her net favourability score (approve minus disapprove) is a dismal -52. This compares to last month, when her approval was at 18% and her net score was -51. Patrick Brown has the approval of 3 in 10 (30%) and his net score is a positive +6. This compares to last month (June 13) when his approval was identical (30%) and his net was +9. His greatest problem continues to be that voters are too unfamiliar with him to have an opinion (47%). Close to 4 in 10 approve of Andrea Horwath (38%, almost twice her party’s vote share, and her net score is a very positive +16. This is down from last month when her approval was 41% and her net favourability was +23.

TWO THIRDS SEE GOVERNMENT CHANGING, GOOD JOB OR NOT Two thirds of Ontarians think the government needs to change (64%), whether they think it has done a good job overall (18%) or a poor one (46%). Just one quarter thinks the government deserves to be reelected (25%), whether it has done a good job (16%) or not (9%). Liberals are, not surprisingly, most likely to say the government has done a good job and deserves to be reelected (47%), although one quarter of Liberals think it’s still time for a change, even if the government has done well (23%). Among PC supporters, most believe a bad job has been done and the government needs to change (78%). Among New Democrats, half think the government has done a bad job and must go (50%), while more than a quarter say a good job has been done, but the government still must change (28%).


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    Ronald O'Dowd says:


    With leaders’ personal numbers dropping, the only winner can be undecided as to consistent personal leadership. A lot of people like Horwath, but she can’t as yet translate that appeal to the party. That remains her challenge. If she can broaden out left-wing support, the NDP could squeak in.

    As for Brown, what does that say that so many people don’t have an opinion? Does it mean that he’s not taken seriously by part of the potential electorate? Logically, Brown and the PCs should be massively running away with this by now — but they aren’t. They definitely need to recalibrate.

    As for Wynne, she will be the last Liberal standing on election night. She is as tough as they come. People may respect that but it’s likely not seen as a reason to keep the Liberals in power.

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    P. Brenn says:

    Liberals would win if got new leader ..most folks I know see her as problem and not liberal brand

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    cynical says:

    OK by me. I don’t live there any more. But please, no more Mike Harris “common sense”. Conservatives are smart enough to govern well without throwing the province into chaos.

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      James Smith says:

      These are mostly the same folks, or those who drank Kool-aid and the knee of Harris, or just incompent. Sadly not Bill Davis PC’s, these guys would put the province back 20 years. Surprised they aren’t calling for the re-intorduction of Fox hunting.

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      billg says:

      Define chaos?
      We as a province have this much money so we can only spend this much money?
      Wood banks started this year in Northern Ontario, much like a food bank but people who couldn’t heat their homes with Hydro due to the costs would call a hotline number and very nice people would deliver wood so they could burn it to heat their homes and cook food to feed their children, if it happens outside of Toronto does anyone really care?
      Ontario spends one million dollars a day giving away Hydro to Quebec and upper New York, hard for Ontario manufactures to compete with that insanity.
      One Billion dollars a month is spent to pay the interest on what Ontario owes, meh, its just a billion.
      Obviously there is enough Kool-Aid for everyone these days.
      For the very first time in my business career I am purchasing from a Quebec supplier, the product is similar but the prices are so much lower.
      No one notices the drip until its too late. The good folks in Tilsonburg noticed the drip yesterday, the good people in Brockville noticed the drip a few months ago.
      Take another sip.
      And when a Mike Harris type is elected again you’ll all scratch your heads and wonder how.

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    Rich says:

    Brown needs to be shaken up and a communication redo is sorely needed..
    I could not tell you one thing he really cares about and he does not ‘connect” with me.
    Nowhere have I heard him talk about what is important to him , what he values and what he hates.
    In short…he needs to display some humanity in order for folks to relate to him. One can have great policies but never connect. He has it backwards ; he needs to connect first then talk about policies later. Heart first, head second in my humble view.

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      doconnor says:

      It’s pretty clear what he cares about. He cares about winning.

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    Matthew says:

    Well, the last time the Conservatives were in power, it screwed Ontario permanently. The last time the Dippers were in, it was a laughing stock. The laughing stock was on balance, less damaging, and long enough ago that a complete change of the guard has happened. Horwath has the least baggage on balance, imho. She has less ideological distance to travel to meet the electorate she needs than Brown does. Meaning, where will the lions share of defecting Liberal voters park their vote? I betcha Horwath runs the big on hope campaign.

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    Cath says:

    As long as Wynne still straddles the NDP’s turf, and she continues to do so, that party is sunk IMO. Unless the unions jump ship from the Libs. to the NDP – which could happen IF it looks like there’s a strong chance of a Tory win. It’s happened before.
    Change being the greatest motivator after many years of Liberals at the helm will be the impetus for a Brown win. Not too much else yet, even WITH a new Liberal leader for voters to go on with Brown vis-a-vis earth-shaking policies. In Kick Ass and War Room, as well as here on your not-a-blog the Liberals have been in power to long. How that shakes out in the end it anyone’s guess.

    No pundit or pollster can effectively get into the heads of the people these days.

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    Matthew says:

    Well if the change vote is strong (and it appears to be), then Horwath and Brown both have the same task, to define themselves as the change those change voters want. As Trudeau (and others) have done.

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      Ronald O'Dowd says:


      But can lightning strike twice in the same place? Remember how Mulcair (and Horwath) tacked to the right — with seemingly predictable results.

      Trudeau moved left and voilà. But can the Ontario NDP credibly do that under Horwath?? Might be a bridge too far — but if it works, then Brown is in for quite a surprise.

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        Cath says:

        They can IMO and it’s very possible.

        Brown’s biggest threat may NOT be from the other two parties but from the splintering/fracturing of his own party.

        Also, let’s not forget the Underdog factor that’s in play.

        Who would YOU say is the underdog among the three leaders right now? Can it be massaged into a victory?

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          Ronald O'Dowd says:


          (Auto correct wants me to write Catherine.)

          Justin I think was considered the obvious underdog. Tricky at Queen’s Park. IMHO, Wynne clearly walks away with that prize but her baggage is killing her politically, so I don’t know if we can really establish a correlation.

          If I was an Ontarian and royally pissed, I would still go for Horwath – – doesn’t represent the status quo and is a safer bet for real but not potentially drastic change. Brown wants to stick with the center-right but the base wants its red meat, which makes that option potentially dangerous for the province. In the wake of Harris, hard right turns now equate with a stop sign.

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